ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[deltadog03]

but, here in lies the problem with the GFDL and HWRF... She is on LIFE SUPPORT!! This is not going to go ape **** in the next 48 hr. EURO Did shift east, but we shall see. I think FL and into the GA/SC/NC coasts better heads up and be prepared just in case.

[TheBurn]

not sure what every one is looking at but Erikas center is fully exposed racing away from whats left of her MLC. or I have no idea what I am looking at....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I kinda see something 16.6N, 58.4W

[tolakram]

live loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is a periscope video with Bernie Rayno @accuweather

https://www.periscope.tv/w/aK3VdzE2ODc0NjJ8MXZBR1JuTnlFbWFHbCAgC1tD-8BHt1IFWfzJL_Zab5Nl0Ysk-a_xg8ZBftZE

also SSTs

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/636591984698896384

[tolakram]

[Hammy]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/erika15/Erika_26-27Aug15_Martinique.gif

Live updating radar gif from Martinique.

[TheStormExpert]

5pm track will be interesting to see how much of an East shift occurs.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, all I can say is that people in South FL (myself included) will breathe easier if the models continue to shift east overnight as well. Will have to see one more good global model cycle before latching on to the shift though.

[Blown Away]

[wxman57]

Current NHC track is left of all guidance. They won't like that, but they'll be slow to adjust it eastward because they don't want to "windshield-wiper" the track over Miami then east of Miami then back to Miami. My gut is starting to say that the center will track east of Florida and will probably stay east of the Carolinas. Don't let your guard down in Florida, by any means.

Not sure recon will find 35kt winds. It's heading toward the center from the NW now and should be in the SE quadrant next. Nothing close to 35kt winds SW-NW-NE.

[Weatherlover12]

Well, all I can say is that people in South FL (myself included) will breathe easier if the models continue to shift east overnight as well. Will have to see one more good global model cycle before latching on to the shift though.

Not if this doesn't hurry and strengthen. If it stays in check won't it go more west?
We still have to watch it

[stormlover2013]

that trough digs all the way into the gom, 00 euro had it no were near there so thats why the model shift

[hurricaneCW]

that trough digs all the way into the gom, 00 euro had it no were near there so thats why the model shift

I believe the Euro showed a shortwave in New England causing an erosion of the ridge. Note these are are 5+ day model forecasts and are subject to great error.

[gatorcane]

Let's not forget the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is barely off the SE Coast of Florida (maybe 50 miles or so?) and we are talking 4-5 days from now. I would like to see that consensus more like 200 miles off the coast. The HWRF and GFDL are way too intense initially and so that is why they are further east.

[Blizzard96x]

reminds me of Chris in 2007 I think.....got fully decapitated and died...

Yep, looks well on its way to what happened to Chris, in a similar region too.

Chris


Erika

[Blown Away]

Naked Erika...

[AutoPenalti]

How strong is the shear in that particular area?

[ozonepete]

How strong is the shear in that particular area?

10-20 knots. Once you get to 15 or higher it starts causing real trouble, though many storms have survived 1 or 2 days of 20 knots shear.

[Extratropical94]

How strong is the shear in that particular area?

[ozonepete]

Don't forget this is at DMIN now so the thunderstorms are weaker (lower topped) and get sheared more easily. Clearly the shear is intense right now.