ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

:uarrow: Looking at the Satellite loop above and following the forward motion of the eye, Danny is definitely moving west-northwest, definitely a more decided north of west the past several hours.

What would that mean for the overall track?

[SeminoleWind]

These little (size) storms always worry me, i know they are 2 different set ups and systems and in no way alike. But i always think of Andrew when i see these type of small storms.

[BobHarlem]

:uarrow: Looking at the Satellite loop above and following the forward motion of the eye, Danny is definitely moving west-northwest, definitely a more decided north of west the past several hours.

What would that mean for the overall track?

It looks 100% on track to me, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

That link has the ability to overlay the forecast track on top of the satellite image, it matches up. A bit early to be wobble watching anyway.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the size and depth, knowing Dvorak can underestimate these storms, I would go with 85 kt personally (pressure 986mb).

[tropicwatch]

TUTT or not GFS does have it moving further west tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Looking at the Satellite loop above and following the forward motion of the eye, Danny is definitely moving west-northwest, definitely a more decided north of west the past several hours.

What would that mean for the overall track?

The overall track guidance is on schedule. Danny previouslywas and is currently forecast to remain on a west-northwest header through at least for the next 3-4 days. That is why for now the focud is on the Leeward Islsnds and if the system will move over them or just north of them. This remains up in the air of course.

[northjaxpro]

Based on the size and depth, knowing Dvorak can underestimate these storms, I would go with 85 kt personally (pressure 986mb).

I would not doubt that possibility. Small tropical cyclones have the potential and in the past can intensify rather rapidly given the right conditions. Danny looks to be close to Cat 2 already.

[Bocadude85]

Danny remains at 70kts.




000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 46.6W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 I

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Looking at the Satellite loop above and following the forward motion of the eye, Danny is definitely moving west-northwest, definitely a more decided north of west the past several hours.

What would that mean for the overall track?

The overall track guidance is on schedule. Danny previouslywas and is currently forecast to remain on a west-northwest header through at least for the next 3-4 days. That is why for now the focud is on the Leeward Islsnds and if the system will move over them or just north of them. This remains up in the air of course.

The model guidance has been inching north with each run with most off or near the north coasts of the big islands now... The dry air & shear seem to be the issue more than land interaction when it comes to Danny falling apart...

[SunnyThoughts]

Man, what a tiny little system. Very interesting watching to see what happens with it the next few days. Smaller than most thunderstorm complexes over the conus. You guys in the islands, stay safe...even though its small, might pack a punch if it were to hit head on, that is if it stays intact up until that point.





Not a forecast, stay tuned to local weather for updates.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny remains at 70kts.




000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 46.6W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 I

Yeah no doubt in my opinion they have underestimated this storm. That eye is showing up now. Didn't the scale go from 4.0 to 4.5 wouldn't that indicate stronger winds?

[Bocadude85]

Danny remains at 70kts.




000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 46.6W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 I

Yeah no doubt in my opinion they have underestimated this storm. That eye is showing up now. Didn't the scale go from 4.0 to 4.5 wouldn't that indicate stronger winds?

I agree. I would say this is approaching cat 2 if not already there. The eye continues to clear out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[northjaxpro]

It is a shame we don't have Recon out there right now because if they were in Danny sampling currently, I am inclined to believe that they would find this hurricane to be stronger than 70 kts.

[gatorcane]

Latest NHC track is exactly what the ECMWF track shows even though model consensus has shifted slightly north. But the NHC track looks to have shifted slightly south at the end.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you ozone and NDG,

Both of you have really helped me and I am sure others understand more than I ever have about these tutt's

[Bocadude85]

Latest NHC track is exactly what the ECMWF track shows even though model consensus has shifted slightly north. But the NHC track looks to have shifted slightly south at the end.

I noticed that also. Looks like they are sticking with the EURO

[CrazyC83]

Another thing I believe is the pressure relationships don't really apply here. I think a pressure of 1000 would be enough to support a hurricane easily given its size and situation, and 987 or so would be a Cat 2.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am by no means a met, but Danny looks really good tonight. in fact better than he has since it was classified, I think it has to be more than a minimal Cat 1 based only by appearance.

[Steve]

I am by no means a met, but Danny looks really good tonight. in fact better than he has since it was classified, I think it has to be more than a minimal Cat 1 based only by appearance.

Agreed. Not sure if it is the final peak, but danny is rolling for the time being and should easily be at it's strongest yet if not ever based on what happens next 36 hours. But yeah. You are right. Also notice the eye is pretty far south in the convective mass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[ozonepete]

Thank you ozone and NDG,

Both of you have really helped me and I am sure others understand more than I ever have about these tutt's

You're welcome. We all learn here by discussing and NDG is one of the best. He's always pushing you, lol.