ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

pressure is rising further based upon the latest aircraft pass. A bit surprised given the satellite appearance

[tropicwatch]

I thougt for sure it would be lower. As usual this system has a mind of its own.

[NDG]

pressure is rising further based upon the latest aircraft pass. A bit surprised given the satellite appearance

I think they missed the COC, IMO.

Edit: since the new fix is WSW of the old fix.

[gatorcane]

I'd say Erika is blowing up this morning

That 00Z ECMWF run definitely has my attention and watching this one closely here in Boca Raton.

[jlauderdal]

Just watched Joe B's video on Erika, he's thinking a Cat. 3 into SE Florida but his cone is much like NHC. He thinks the much warmer SST's nearing the Bahamas, less dry air and lessening shear allows rapid intensification.

thats reasonable although aggressive...pay attention to wxman57, he nailed it yesterday, could be a remnant low or a cane and although it seems to be siding as something more than a remnant low...lets see..if it stays south it could run right into Hispaniola and die just like i think debby did about 15 years ago..we had a similar track, lots of media hype and in a few hours one afternoon it was all gone

[JPmia]

One of these times I'm going to be wrong. Anytime the cone is on S. Fl. this far out. We get nothing. I hope the streak continues but we do need rain. Especially near the coast.

its going to end one of these days but until then the trend is your friend as well as the error in the track forecasting

Don't forget that we were in the cone for quite a few days during Wilma and she hit us on the southwest FL coast.

[eastcoastFL]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

[NDG]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

That's good planning by them, to be on the safe side.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

Same in Martin...County to start reducing traffic lights as early as Friday if projections continue.

[JPmia]

From Bob Henson's blog discussion this morning: "Putting aside the very valid question of Erika’s durability over the next several days, the overall pattern is the most favorable I’ve seen in a long time for a potential Florida landfall."

I am still hoping for WXMAN57's cool tropical breeze.

[Gustywind]

I'd say Erika is blowing up this morning

That 00Z ECMWF run definitely has my attention and watching this one closely here in Boca Raton.

Gatorcane given this trend and the latest datas from the NHC, do you think that Erika could reach or approach hurricane status before it approach near the Leewards or stays at TS status? I ask you this question because Erika is really increasing since the last hour ?You know better than me that islanders of the Leewards are always a bit worry when an increasing TS is churning towards us .

[BlueWater36]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

Same in Martin...County to start reducing traffic lights as early as Friday if projections continue.

Where do you obtain your information for Martin County?

[gatorcane]

Here in South Florida, this summer has been quite abnormal. Record-breaking heat, constant E windflow with extreme drought conditions along the SE Coast of Florida all due to a strong Bermuda High that setup shop back in the mid April timeframe. We actually had a "quasi-rainy" season setup before the real rainy season due to this strong High. In fact, the last time I remembered this pattern was 2004 so I had a feeling this season could get interesting come this time el nino or no el nino. I just hope that somehow we can dodge another bullet here as we have through the years. Last time we had a serious threat was Hurricane Ike where models had us pegged about 5 days out and then they started veering south to Cuba and we were spared. Still time for things to change but slowly the time is running out for the models to start veering away from us. Hope our luck continues.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

Same in Martin...County to start reducing traffic lights as early as Friday if projections continue.

Where do you obtain your information for Martin County?

Client of mine that works for The Signal Group. Nothing official from Martin just verbal from his county peeps. I do know S Leigton who is head of Emergency Managment well and will probably hear something prior to official word.

[gatorcane]

I'd say Erika is blowing up this morning

That 00Z ECMWF run definitely has my attention and watching this one closely here in Boca Raton.

http://i.imgur.com/1YkF2tj.jpg

Gatorcane given this trend and the latest datas from the NHC, do you think that Erika could reach or approach hurricane status before it approach near the Leewards or stays at TS status? I ask you this question because Erika is really increasing since the last hour ?You know better than me that islanders of the Leewards are always a bit worry when an increasing TS is churning towards us .

I don't think it can reach hurricane status before reaching the Leewards by looking at the models. No model brings it to hurricane status by then probably because there is a bit too much dry air around still. But you never know. Let's see if this convection blowup can continue or whether it just poofs (we have seen this before and been fooled a system is organizing but it really isn't).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Recon found Erika's center on the NW tip of the convection, indicating conditions aloft are still not quite right. All model guidance is in good agreement on a possible S. FL threat Monday morning. How strong it will be when it nears S. FL is still the big question, and that question may not be resolved until this weekend. If I was in S. FL then I'd make sure that my hurricane kit was in order and that my pantry was full of non-perishable goods, etc., etc..

[boca]

What about the HWRF model that keeps Erika off shore is that a trend or a bad run

[Frank2]

Sorry, Mark : )

Looking at this loop, you can see the high cloud motion ahead of Erika, so shear still an issue:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

[gatorcane]

Sorry, Mark : )

Looking at this loop, you can see the high cloud motion ahead of Erika, so shear still an issue:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

Hi Frank yes an issue for now but this has been expected. What happens once it gets into the Bahamas? That is the million $$$ question.

That area has created some significant hurricanes in the past in a relatively short amount of time (as I am sure you know).

[Gustywind]

I'd say Erika is blowing up this morning

That 00Z ECMWF run definitely has my attention and watching this one closely here in Boca Raton.

http://i.imgur.com/1YkF2tj.jpg

Gatorcane given this trend and the latest datas from the NHC, do you think that Erika could reach or approach hurricane status before it approach near the Leewards or stays at TS status? I ask you this question because Erika is really increasing since the last hour ?You know better than me that islanders of the Leewards are always a bit worry when an increasing TS is churning towards us .

I don't think it can reach hurricane status before reaching the Leewards by looking at the models. No model brings it to hurricane status by then probably because there is a bit too much dry air around still. But you never know. Let's see if this convection blowup can continue or whether it just poofs (we have seen this before and been fooled a system is organizing but it really isn't).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks i always appreciate your input. We don't let our guard down, time will tell. Let's hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.