ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[storm4u]

might have to watch this one closely up here 12z euro is running

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 48 hours:

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 72 hours:

[tolakram]

Looking at Weatherbell, a bit stronger this run, so far.

[NDG]

The most important thing regarding the latest run of the GFS is that it has backed away from forecasting such a deep trough for the eastern US as it was showing yesterday.
98L could be very well a threat for the eastern US.

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[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

The 12Z HWRF shows a weaker 98L but still a hurricane/TS here, a little north of Puerto Rico:

[tolakram]

Spoke too soon. Euro nearly drops it at 78 hours, near the same shear belt Danny has to traverse IMO.

[gatorcane]

12 ECMWF 96 hours, over Leewards and weaker than the 12Z ECMWF:

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Being a little weaker this run of the ECMWF, might make it further west before it ramps up, let's see.

[SFLcane]

Lol here we go again environment expected to be hostile as it nears western Atl. NHC 2pm two.

[Hammy]

Spoke too soon. Euro nearly drops it at 78 hours, near the same shear belt Danny has to traverse IMO.

Euro doing terrible with the shear forecasts this year, worse than I've ever seen. This is the second major hurricane it showed that won't be materializing.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 120 hours, just north of Puerto Rico:

[tolakram]

Looks like it will still develop late, better defined at 120.

[NDG]

So far the 12z Euro is just about the same from last night's run.

[Hammy]

Roughly when does the ukmet run come out?

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 144 hours, moving more WNW:

[tolakram]