WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

GFS also with a peak of 913 mb and slams it to Taiwan...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 24 NM NORTH
OF ROTA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). THIS CONSOLIDATION IS EVIDENT IN GUAM
RADAR IMAGERY, WHICH NOW SHOWS A DEVELOPING EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. TS
16W TRACKED JUST NORTH OF ROTA WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF ABOUT 989MB AT
1843Z; SAIPAN OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 49 KNOTS AT 1154Z; AND ANDERSEN AFB OBSERVED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 43 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS. IN GENERAL, THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 KNOTS TO 65 KNOTS AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND DUAL OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS FUELING THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. TS 16W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR ENTRENCHED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER INDICATE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 48. THIS RI FORECAST IS BASED ON A
NUMBER OF KEY FACTORS: THE LLCC IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING; OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW; HIGH SHIPS RI
VALUES; AND RI IS FORECASTED IN BOTH THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT (AGAIN, WITH THE EXCETION OF THE NAVGEM AND GFDN
OUTLIERS), THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

This is one wet storm...

Goni already dropped a record 9.64 inches of rain yesterday at the airport surpassing the old record set in August 1981 of 5.14 inches...

Other areas around Guam getting over 7 inch and above...

[euro6208]

It's just 35 miles from Rota now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye candy from Himawari 8 shows Goni and Atsani strengthening

[Yellow Evan]

Looks to be only around 55 knts. ASCAT earlier found 50 knts, and the structure has improved slightly. There is an eye on radar, but remember, tropical storms can sometimes have eyes.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ASCAT underestimates things, remember it only found 163 kt on Haiyan

[Yellow Evan]

A few hrs ago storm was only 45knts can't find a latter clear pass.

ASCAT has a low bias, especially with storms over 40 knts and is seldom used for systems above 65 knts. Most likely this is one of those cases were wind is lagging satellite and where despite an eye on radar, winds are only 40-45 knts. Based on that ASCAT pass, I'd go 50 at 0z and probs 55-60 now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A few hrs ago storm was only 45knts can't find a latter clear pass.

ASCAT has a low bias, especially with storms over 40 knts and is seldom used for systems above 65 knts. Most likely this is one of those cases were wind is lagging satellite and where despite an eye on radar, winds are only 40-45 knts. Based on that ASCAT pass, I'd go 50 at 0z and probs 55-60 now.

Very true.

Haiyan was only 163 kts in ASCAT, you obviously winds were MUCH higher

At landfall ASCAT barely showed cat 5 winds too

[Yellow Evan]

Very true.

Haiyan was only 163 kts in ASCAT, you obviously winds were MUCH higher

At landfall ASCAT barely showed cat 5 winds too

Interesting you bring that up. 163 knt winds in ASCAT actually would support my idea that the JTWC's 170 is conservative. Look at Haiyan's ASCAT pass shows a tight inner core (which land reports confirmed). Idk where you got the 163 knt form but I believe it.

[dexterlabio]

Idk but a 163 knots from ASCAT would support something a little above 165 knots...170 knots may be conservative but not far-fetched IMO, especially when you consider satellite appearances of 160> knot storms, including Haiyan, in the past. Others pale in comparison. However one could only argue or agree with estimates since there is no other way to measure actual peak intensities in this basin.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

16W GONI 150816 1200 15.6N 143.5E WPAC 65 974

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.0N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.2N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 143.0E.
TYPHOON 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 17W (ATSANI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Goni is beginning to develop an eye.



The longer Goni (and Atsani) can stay below 20*N, the stronger they can become.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 16 August 2015

<Analyses at 16/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°50'(15.8°)
E143°05'(143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E140°55'(140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 17/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 161830

A. TYPHOON 16W (GONI)

B. 16/1732Z

C. 16.01N

D. 142.73E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURR BY CMG (-1.0
CDG ADJ) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AND MET BOTH YIELD A 4.5. DBO
PT DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 2.0 OVER 18HRS, 2.5 OVER 24HRS)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1549Z 15.70N 143.18E ATMS


MARTINEZ

[1900hurricane]

Deja Vu, Goni has a pinhole eye. Probably shouldn't last too long though, microwave already shows an outer eyewall forming.

[euro6208]

Deja Vu, Goni has a pinhole eye. Probably shouldn't last too long though, microwave already shows an outer eyewall forming.

Clearly can see a pinhole on the latest radar with a much larger eye developing...

[euro6208]

Up to 80 knots!

16W GONI 150816 1800 16.0N 142.7E WPAC 80 963

Probrably a bit stronger with that pinhole and tight eyewall...

recon anyone?

[euro6208]

12Z EURO bottoms Goni at 914 mb, misses Taiwan, China, and Okinawa and rides north to Japan/Korea...

GFS trending stronger now brings this down again sub 900, 897 mb just southeast of Taiwan barely missing Luzon and the Batanes Islands with landfall in southern Taiwan...