000
WTPQ81 PGUM 051053
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015
...TROPICAL STORM NOUL CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS YAP...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP...ULITHI AND NGULU ISLANDS OF YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ULITHI HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 138.8E
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 485 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NOUL CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST
AND NORTH AS IT HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF YAP ISLAND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE EYE OF THE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL
STORM TO CROSS THE ISLAND OF YAP SOMETIME OVER NIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS KIND OF SLOW MOVEMENT MOTION CAN BE
ERRATIC...AND THE TIMING OF EXACTLY WHEN NOUL REACHES THE
ISLAND IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW ITSELF IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.
...YAP...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE EYE CROSSES THE ISLAND. SINCE THE WIND
FIELD OF NOUL IS VERY SMALL...WINDS MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY JUST PRIOR
TO THE EYE REACHING THE ISLAND. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS CLEARLY SUBSIDE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
EXISTING DAMAGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH LATER TONIGHT AS THE EYE APPROACHES.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS OF 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE VERY SMALL AREA AROUND THE EYE ITSELF. DO NOT GO OUTSIDE
DURING THIS TIME. LATER... WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
AS THE TYPHOON PASSES THE ISLAND...DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE EYE WITH RESPECT TO YOUR LOCATION. SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING
UPON THE CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF THE TYPHOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 TO 20
FEET WILL PEAK AT BETWEEN 18 AND 22 FEET JUST PRIOR TO THE EYE
REACHING THE SHORELINE...LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COASTAL INUNDATION IS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND NEARER TO THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. IF NOUL PASSES JUST SOUTH OF YAP...TYPHOON FORCE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE MORE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION IN COLONIA
(TAMIL) HARBOR AND LAGOON DUE TO A HIGHER STORM SURGE AND STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS SLOWLY MOVING STORM AND LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY.
...ULITHI...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT HEAVY PERIODS
OF RAIN AND WIND ARE STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME LINGERING BANDS. LISTEN
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NIGHT WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SOUTHWEST SURF OF BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SLOW MOVING STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ULITHI COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NGULU...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE CURRENT TRACK OF NOUL
KEEPS THE OUTER RANGE OF DAMAGING WINDS CLOSE TO NGULU...JUST TO THE
NORTH. AVOID VENTURING NEAR REEFS WHERE HAZARDOUS SURF MAY BE
OCCURRING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND
SURF SUBSIDE IN A FEW DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION... NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 12 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...PEAKING AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
INUNDATION OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
R.EDSON
WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
Up to 60 knots!
06W NOUL 150505 1200 9.5N 138.6E WPAC 60 978
06W NOUL 150505 1200 9.5N 138.6E WPAC 60 978
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
Yap about 4 hours ago got a wind gust of 40 mph and now is getting sustained winds of 20 gusting to 35 mph from the north with a Cp of 1001 mb.
Conditions should start to rapidly deteriorate as Noul comes...
Too bad, obs from Ulithi and Fais likely won't come in until after Noul passes...
Conditions should start to rapidly deteriorate as Noul comes...
Too bad, obs from Ulithi and Fais likely won't come in until after Noul passes...
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue May 05, 2015 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Why would it recurve?Wouldn't the ridge rebuild? It would steer the system more westwards the more powerful it becomes and the break would make a slight NW turn before resuming its normal track. What is likely is that the Philippines would still have at least moderate impact.
Looks like the model brings it around the periphery of the ridge. Might be a close call.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
Close call for NE Luzon.
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A
050910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH BROKEN DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE COOLING
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER, ONLY WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS AVAILABLE WHICH IS
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING STR.
THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24, TS 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL INCREASE ALLOWING TS NOUL TO INTENSIFY AT A QUICKER RATE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUING THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, NOW WITH A 120NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND A 240NM SPREAD AT
TAU 120; WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE IMPROVING MODEL
SPREAD AND RECENT STABILITY IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A
050910Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
WITH BROKEN DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND THE COOLING
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER, ONLY WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS AVAILABLE WHICH IS
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING STR.
THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24, TS 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL INCREASE ALLOWING TS NOUL TO INTENSIFY AT A QUICKER RATE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR AND TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUING THE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, NOW WITH A 120NM SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND A 240NM SPREAD AT
TAU 120; WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. DUE TO THE IMPROVING MODEL
SPREAD AND RECENT STABILITY IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
CMC Yap, peak, and passing east of Okinawa...
NAVGEM
GFS takes Noul on a recurve but barely. Any deviation to the left will take Noul on a landfall...
GFS closecall for Okinawa....
NAVGEM
GFS takes Noul on a recurve but barely. Any deviation to the left will take Noul on a landfall...
GFS closecall for Okinawa....
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
EURO agrees on a recurve but barely...
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Tropical Storm
JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.
STS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 May 2015
<Analyses at 05/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
STS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 May 2015
<Analyses at 05/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°20'(9.3°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E127°35'(127.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 10/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Severe Tropical Storm
JTWC upgrades to Typhoon NOUL at 65kts.
WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 051748Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND
IMPROVING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EASTERLY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING STR.
AFTERWARDS, TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ALLOWING TY 06W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND TAU
24, TY 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR AND
SHIFTING TYPHOON NOUL POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 6 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 051748Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND
IMPROVING STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND EASTERLY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING STR.
AFTERWARDS, TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ALLOWING TY 06W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. BEYOND TAU
24, TY 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECASTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR AND
SHIFTING TYPHOON NOUL POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Severe Tropical Storm
4th typhoon of the season...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAY 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 9:26:50 N Lon : 137:47:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.6mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.9
Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 58km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.9 degrees
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAY 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 9:26:50 N Lon : 137:47:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.6mb/ 82.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 3.9
Center Temp : -74.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 58km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.9 degrees
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052102
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 AM CHST WED MAY 6 2015
...TYPHOON NOUL JUST WEST OF YAP AND CONTINUING WESTWARD...
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDMORNING.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 137.9E
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF YAP
ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 285 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 540 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NOUL WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.9
DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 5 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTH. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
AYDLETT
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
Earlier today, Yap received a wind gust of well above 60 mph as it made it's closest approach and now latest is 993 mb winds coming out from the east at 24 mph gusting to 37 mph...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: NOUL - Severe Tropical Storm
Looks like Noul and the "Dolphin" and "Kujira" seen by the models to develop right after this one are due to the strong WWB's over the Pacific. It's like a chicken-or-egg debate on which ever comes first, the westerlies or the WPAC typhoons.
How does this year's record stand now? If I remember correctly, 1997 had a pause after STY Isa. This year WPAC only had a month of break after STY Maysak.
How does this year's record stand now? If I remember correctly, 1997 had a pause after STY Isa. This year WPAC only had a month of break after STY Maysak.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: WPAC: NOUL - Severe Tropical Storm
Still JMA has not upgraded to Typhoon.
STS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 6 May 2015
<Analyses at 06/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°10'(9.2°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E134°30'(134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
STS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 6 May 2015
<Analyses at 06/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°10'(9.2°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E134°30'(134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)
<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 11/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: NOUL - Severe Tropical Storm
31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 19 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 052148Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALONG WITH 052355Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON NOUL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
06 TO 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES TRANSITION TO THE BUILDING
STR. AFTERWARDS, TY 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ALLOWING TY 06W TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY. BEYOND TAU 24, TY 06W WILL PICK UP TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS, WHERE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 06W WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR AND
SHIFTING TYPHOON NOUL POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF LUZON. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
A visible eye is starting to show up......uhmm JMA?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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RaijinWeather
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 49
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
spiral wrote:euro6208 wrote:Earlier today, Yap received a wind gust of well above 60 mph as it made it's closest approach and now latest is 993 mb winds coming out from the east at 24 mph gusting to 37 mph...
MB's got down a bit lower .
How to get the decoded synoptic data... Can you provide the link if possible
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xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
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- Contact:
Stronger
06W NOUL 150506 0600 9.4N 136.9E WPAC 75 967
06W NOUL 150506 0600 9.4N 136.9E WPAC 75 967
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