UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 9:04:45 S Lon : 170:44:24 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.7mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.0 4.0
Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -84.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees
SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: PAM - Tropical Cyclone
JTWC peak intensity up to 130kts.
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.6S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.2S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.7S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 170.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A
092157Z MHS METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS (T4.0) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TROUGH AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 10.6S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.5S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.2S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 30.7S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 170.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. A
092157Z MHS METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS (T4.0) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. TC 17P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 THEN THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 17P IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 17P SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
TROUGH AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN
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Yellow Evan
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- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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FMS ADT:
2015MAR10 023200 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -86.76 -87.08 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.62 -170.16 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 013200 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -83.43 -84.69 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.82 -170.14 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 003200 4.0 980.3 +4.3 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -89.15 -87.23 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.85 -170.11 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 001400 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -87.93 -87.82 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.55 -170.11 SPRL MTSAT2 31.2
2015MAR10 023200 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -86.76 -87.08 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.62 -170.16 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 013200 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -83.43 -84.69 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.82 -170.14 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 003200 4.0 980.3 +4.3 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -89.15 -87.23 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.85 -170.11 SPRL MTSAT2 31.3
2015MAR10 001400 4.0 980.4 +4.4 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -87.93 -87.82 UNIFRM N/A N/A -9.55 -170.11 SPRL MTSAT2 31.2
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 10:02:07 S Lon : 170:36:57 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 983.9mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.8
Center Temp : -89.2C Cloud Region Temp : -85.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.9 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 10:02:07 S Lon : 170:36:57 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 983.9mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.8
Center Temp : -89.2C Cloud Region Temp : -85.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.9 degrees
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Yellow Evan
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- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
Tuesday 10mar15 Time: 0234 UTC
Latitude: -10.06 Longitude: 171.08
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 3 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 983 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 63 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.79
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.52
RMW: 37 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1003 (JTWC)
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 03 Day: 10 Time (UTC): 0000
For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
Tuesday 10mar15 Time: 0234 UTC
Latitude: -10.06 Longitude: 171.08
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 3 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 983 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 63 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.79
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.52
RMW: 37 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1003 (JTWC)
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 03 Day: 10 Time (UTC): 0000
For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
TXPS21 KNES 100618
TCSWSP
A. 17P (PAM)
B. 10/0532Z
C. 9.5S
D. 170.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/SSMI
H. REMARKS...PAM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPS OVER
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MIN VALUE OF -97C. 8 TENTHS BANDING GIVES 3.5
WITH .5 ADDED FOR W BAND FOR DT=4.0. MET=3.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0039Z 9.5S 170.5E GMI
10/0307Z 9.5S 170.6E SSMI
TCSWSP
A. 17P (PAM)
B. 10/0532Z
C. 9.5S
D. 170.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/SSMI
H. REMARKS...PAM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPS OVER
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MIN VALUE OF -97C. 8 TENTHS BANDING GIVES 3.5
WITH .5 ADDED FOR W BAND FOR DT=4.0. MET=3.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
10/0039Z 9.5S 170.5E GMI
10/0307Z 9.5S 170.6E SSMI
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 10:36:57 S Lon : 170:48:12 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 978.7mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9
Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 MAR 2015 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 10:36:57 S Lon : 170:48:12 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 978.7mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9
Center Temp : -77.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 150km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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TXPS41 PHFO 101123
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1123 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015
A. Tropical cyclone Pam.
B. 10/1032Z.
C. 10.2°S.
D. 170.0°E.
E. Mtsat.
F. T5.0/5.0/d2.0/24 hr.
G. Ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Embedded center pattern, with cdg surrounding gray shade. This yields a data t of 5.0. Pattern t and MET are 4.5. Final T based on data t.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Kinel.
Here's my answer.
TCSSP1
SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1123 UTC TUE MAR 10 2015
A. Tropical cyclone Pam.
B. 10/1032Z.
C. 10.2°S.
D. 170.0°E.
E. Mtsat.
F. T5.0/5.0/d2.0/24 hr.
G. Ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Embedded center pattern, with cdg surrounding gray shade. This yields a data t of 5.0. Pattern t and MET are 4.5. Final T based on data t.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Kinel.
Here's my answer.
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euro6208
Re: SPAC: PAM - Tropical Cyclone
Ahhh if it weren't for you Pam, Bavi should be stronger! 
Classic twin...
Classic twin...
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Yellow Evan
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Re: SPAC: PAM - Tropical Cyclone
euro6208 wrote:JTWC and KNES dvorak is up to 4.5=75 knots...
Technically T4.5 is 77 knots.
ADT remains stuck at 4.0, likely due to lack of microwave eye. When that appears, CMISS be adjusted upwards to T4.6 or T4.8. However, the JTWC and FMS ADT should not change much for a while, maybe until an eye pops out.
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145255
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPAC: PAM - Tropical Cyclone
JTWC peak now up to 140kts.
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.4S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.6S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.8S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 651 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TC 17P CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME LARGER. A 101127Z TRMM SHOWS
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TC PAM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND TAU 72, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENTRENCHED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK CONTINUING IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. AS SUCH, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN
WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.4S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.6S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.8S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 33.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 170.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 651 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
TC 17P CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME LARGER. A 101127Z TRMM SHOWS
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A CONCEALED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LOCATION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TC PAM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND TAU 72, TC PAM WILL BEGIN TO BE
ENTRENCHED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ONLY SOME
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK CONTINUING IN A SOUTHWARD DIRECTION. AS SUCH, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN
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1900hurricane
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We're getting closer, but Pam isn't ready to go off quite yet.
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
1900hurricane wrote:We're getting closer, but Pam isn't ready to go off quite yet.
It is going to take time for an eye to clear out due to the large CDO. It will happen though IMO.
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Agreed that 70 or 75 kt makes most sense. It does look like a T4.5 to me.
SAB and SSD are 4.5, CPHC is 5.0. Supports 80 knots, though ADT is lower.
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