ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Kingarabian
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#761 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:44 pm

00z GFS seems to be weaker an a hair south through 30 hrs.
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#762 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS seems to be weaker an a hair south through 30 hrs.


Yup, my guess is this will be going over Hispaniola. So probably not much development from the 0z GFS.
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#763 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:50 pm

Ridge looks really robust on this run...
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#764 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:55 pm

Through 60 hrs looks nearly identical to 18z...
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#765 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:55 pm

Vort at 60 hours is just north of Hispaniola.
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Re:

#766 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 10:57 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Vort at 60 hours is just north of Hispaniola.


The vort is a touch further offshore and better defined compared to the 18z
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#767 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:01 pm

GFS being very consistent. This run is nearly identical to the last run when using the compare feature.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015082600&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=256
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#768 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:01 pm

Ironically at 78 hours when the system should start having conditions for intensifying the GFS shows the vort as not as defined.

SFT
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#769 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:05 pm

Image
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#770 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:06 pm

96 hour mark looks like the Vort is splitting into two pieces.
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Re:

#771 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:08 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:96 hour mark looks like the Vort is splitting into two pieces.


Yep, and it's done this for a few runs now, extremely consistent.
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Re: Re:

#772 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:09 pm

tolakram wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:96 hour mark looks like the Vort is splitting into two pieces.


Yep, and it's done this for a few runs now, extremely consistent.


Seems weird but maybe it's on to something.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#773 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:11 pm

108 hours moving through the keys/extreme south Florida.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#774 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:13 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#775 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#776 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:16 pm

Shear
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#777 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:17 pm

Unless the Euro shows some development I'm going to be inclined to believe this doesn't make it to Florida as anything more then a tropical wave.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#778 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:20 pm

I'm tempted to agree, if the Euro shows a similar solution.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#779 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:21 pm

Nothing there.

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#780 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:21 pm

EURO generally comes out around 2 a.m. Eastern time right?
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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