ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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windnrain
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#681 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:58 pm

Can you post the NAM?
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#682 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:58 pm

So, its sounding like the OP EURO run is having more and more ENS support?
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Kingarabian
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#683 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:58 pm

Landfall around 90hrs.
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#684 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:59 pm

and the MU and CC ensembles are more strongly into NC
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Re:

#685 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Landfall around 90hrs.


Pic?
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#686 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:59 pm

deltadog03 wrote:So, its sounding like the OP EURO run is having more and more ENS support?


Yeah. There was a sizable shift from the 12z EC ENS towards out to sea compared to the 0z EC runs.
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#687 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:00 pm

Did any of the current gulfstream data make into the 18z or was it too soon..
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#688 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:01 pm

18z GFS @ 96 hrs

Image
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#689 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:01 pm

Virtually no change from 12Z.
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Re:

#690 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:02 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Did any of the current gulfstream data make into the 18z or was it too soon..


It could have half of the data and 00z has the rest. (per Alyono's post from yesterday)
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Re: Re:

#691 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Did any of the current gulfstream data make into the 18z or was it too soon..


It could have half of the data and 00z has the rest. (per Alyono's post from yesterday)


sometimes it does sometimes it does not..
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Re: Re:

#692 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:03 pm

windnrain wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Landfall around 90hrs.


Pic?


Image
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#693 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:04 pm

18z GFS 84hrs. :eek:

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#694 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:04 pm

Hard left into NC
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Kingarabian
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Re: Re:

#695 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Did any of the current gulfstream data make into the 18z or was it too soon..


It could have half of the data and 00z has the rest. (per Alyono's post from yesterday)


sometimes it does sometimes it does not..


i'm going to assume no since this run is almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.
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ronjon
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#696 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:06 pm

937 mb in global? Very strong.
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TheStormExpert

#697 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:06 pm

18z GFS 90hrs.

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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: Re:

#698 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote: i'm going to assume no since this run is almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.


The 12z had it coming in just north of Wilmington and then going west across most of NC, then south into SC, then back north over Wilmington again. I would say that this is definitely not a carbon copy of the 12z.
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#699 Postby ninel conde » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:07 pm

that would be a disaster for ne nc, se va. i still think we see a strong noreaster type storm.
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#700 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:07 pm

wow 937mb on high res? yikes Very concerning, hopefully that doesn't end up being the case.

Stay tuned to NHC and local media outlets for official forecasts.
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