ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

Weatherwatcher98 · #661 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:57 pm

xironman wrote:
Steve wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:is it possible that this storm does a mixture of the Euro and the GFS? could it possibly be pulled to the Northeast a bit and then get trapped under the ridge and get pushed to the Northwest?

I think there is a lot still on the table. You have a lot of variables including 99L, sharp ridge moving onto Joaquin, Western Gulf Low; El Nino inspired moisture fetch from the Pacific Ocean up through the East Coast; remnants of Ida; a strong cold front with a strong high behind it; etc. We're probably not done with surprises which of course is why so many of us get excited tracking systems. Once you think you understand something, you get unpredictability.

The booooggggusss low off the south carolina coast at 144 is a clear indication the model is out to lunch.

Curious where are you located? xironman

BensonTCwatcher · #662 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:57 pm

Yeah I think that the discreet causes of each to the scenarios being wrong in our "big two" (when they were off) seem to have one thing in common, which is they were all conditions which stray from climatological means. So it's seem pretty hard to program an algorithm to deal with "an average .....El Nino, with lower SST's (or higher), with big persistent pattern of shear). I guess what it comes down to there will always be a particular combination of atmospheric fluid dynamics that busts an otherwise steadily improving model.

#663 Postby **Steve** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:59 pm

You talking about the Euro? What is the origin of that bogus low?

Weatherwatcher98 · #664 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:29 pm

Finding it hard to believe...after reading between the lines...some people actually Want to Experience this storm. WOW

#665 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:30 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:The booooggggusss low off the south carolina coast at 144 is a clear indication the model is out to lunch.

Curious where are you located? xironman[/quote]

DC

#666 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:32 pm

Steve wrote:You talking about the Euro? What is the origin of that bogus low?

Yeah, the huge 500mb low from the southern stream pops off a surface feature at 144 but at 96 is unable to interact with the ocean storm. Not really something you see every day. I know you guys understand the tropics great, but I have wasted my life watching northeasters and how ocean storms act in the environment.

#667 Postby **fox13weather** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:33 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:I don't know if it's the shear, El Nino, or what but in my last 20 years of cane tracking I have never seen modeling do so bad. Including the 2 go toos(GFS and EURO). Have feeling were not done playing target practice with Joaquin either.
Totally agree

Mahhh ..The atmosphere is complicated ...and this time around it is even more so than usual ...what if subsequent model runs come together starting tonight or tomorrow? could happen based on data from G IV

#668 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:36 pm

10 years ago (probably even 5) the globals would be struggling even more with this very very complicated setup. The models have gotten really good.

windnrain · #669 Postby **windnrain** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:44 pm

GFS model coming soon?

Bocadude85 · #670 Postby **Bocadude85** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:46 pm

Through 24 hours the 18z GFS is very similar to the 12z

#671 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:47 pm

18z GFS @ 24 hrs

#672 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:47 pm

18z GFS @ 48hrs

SeGaBob · #673 Postby **SeGaBob** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:52 pm

I bet it shifts east now just to mess with the NHC

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#674 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:53 pm

18z GFS @ 72 hrs

#675 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:54 pm

very similar to the 12Z through 66 hours

#676 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:55 pm

It's a tad bit more east this run. Seems like there's some sort of low off of Georgia/SC

windnrain · #677 Postby **windnrain** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:55 pm

More northerly impact this run?

windnrain · #678 Postby **windnrain** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:56 pm

Is GFS finding the same low Euro is finding?

#679 Postby **Steve** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:57 pm

windnrain wrote:GFS model coming soon?

It's running now. It's moving slow but slightly north of due west in the middle of Day 2. Fwiw, NAM is out and has the 3rd solution that I alluded to last night before the intensification was obvious. And that's to partially split a stream of energy into the flow of a massive cutoff low over South Carolina and feeds the moisture in around the north side of that as part of a phase while some of the energy moves north, and a lot of it shunts off ENE all within the 4 day timeframe. While I don't trust the nam, that's the 18z run that's out.

#680 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 4:57 pm

into Hatteras

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