ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Live unenhanced IR loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=20

Looks to be nearly stationary at the moment.

[Steve]

Thanks. Wondering if he will blow up during the d-max tonight - say after 2 am. Last time I dealt with Bill, it was 2003 and one of the walls from the center of circulation came right over us in Metairie. It was the only time I can recall being in one (slept Florence '88 and missed the pass over)

[HurricaneRyan]

So will this be weaker than Ana?

[weathernerdguy]

Not likely at this rate.

[HurriGuy]

looking at that unenhanced satellite, I'd swear it almost moves NNE those last couple of frames

[tolakram]

From the NHC website:

Special Message from NHC Issued 16 Jun 2015 01:51 UTC
NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes.

[weathernerdguy]

advisories being posted. FINALLY!

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 94.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Baffin Bay to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

[HurriGuy]

12mph?? I'm not seeing that

[davidiowx]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

[Hammy]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

I believe the track width is standard for the whole season depending on what the average margin of error was for a set number of seasons.

[Nederlander]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

I believe the track width is standard for the whole season depending on what the average margin of error was for a set number of seasons.

No, I am pretty sure they take into account model consensus on a case by case basis.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

The cone of error is based on 5 year error and does not change from storm to storm, only year to year:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml
2/3rds of the time over the past 5 years storms have been outside the cone.

[wkwally]

At 12 mph I do not see much of a chance for Bill to become a hurricane

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

The width of the track is based on prior average error. it has nothing to do with the current storm. the tracks (cone) has become narrower in recent years because the NHC has been getting better over time.

[1900hurricane]

New convection is firing in the southern quadrant. Let's see how well it sustains itself overnight. The prior burst held up pretty well but has been somewhat warm for a while now. Nighttime might help sustain deeper convection.

[ozonepete]

That is quite a narrow track and slow movement... A bit surprising.. I will give the NHC the benefit of the doubt though. They know what they are doing.

I believe the track width is standard for the whole season depending on what the average margin of error was for a set number of seasons.

Yup. Purely and simply.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Better description about the cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[davidiowx]

Thanks for the replies! Learn something new every day

[ROCK]

Not moving hardly at all attm..is getting better organized http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif