ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, I really don't want to sound any alarm bells here, but I have a question. About how long can we reasonably expect this to stay over the water?

Bill looks to have 45-knot winds and a 1005 mb pressure, though some recon reports indicate it could be lower. And this system still looks like it is getting better organized. I have to hope that we don't see this spend at least 24 more hours over water. Why?

Because at 00Z on August 16, 1983, Alicia had this same exact wind speed, and same exact pressure. She would become a hurricane exactly 24 hours later, in a very similar location. I have said in previous posts in the Talkin' Tropics forum that I wouldn't be surprised with a storm like Alicia or Anita taking shape this year. Plus, some have called 1957 a solid analog...the year Audrey formed in the Gulf and rapidly took shape.

Stay focused and be prepared, but try not to read too much into that statement above. Just do what you need to do, but I already know most of you will do that anyway.

-Andrew92

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Just updated to Bill at 9:16pm EDT. Took a few minutes to be posted to ftp site I guess.

[Steve]

Looks like Bill will try to make that typical tightening up before Texas landfall. Cat 1 isn't out the question, but I agree with people thinking upper TS level. I also think it comes in mid Texas Coast. Looks like a system that could spread rains pretty far inland, and I'm talking OK, AR and maybe MO. Watch out Houston, Lake Charles, Golden Triangle and other SWLA and SETX communities for training and flash flooding.

This post is not official. Please use only official sources for information to protect life and property.

[CajunMama]

Careful with the NHC-bashing, folks - unless you want an S2K vacation...

along with NWS current and past employees and our board pro-mets even if you just meant it as a joke. Others may not see it as a joke. So with that.... keep storm watching!

[Annie Oakley]

thanks all for link-wasn't doubting-just needed official link for media et al

[Ntxw]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, I really don't want to sound any alarm bells here, but I have a question. About how long can we reasonably expect this to stay over the water?

Bill looks to have 45-knot winds and a 1005 mb pressure, though some recon reports indicate it could be lower. And this system still looks like it is getting better organized. I have to hope that we don't see this spend at least 24 more hours over water. Why?

Because at 00Z on August 16, 1983, Alicia had this same exact wind speed, and same exact pressure. She would become a hurricane exactly 24 hours later, in a very similar location. I have said in previous posts in the Talkin' Tropics forum that I wouldn't be surprised with a storm like Alicia or Anita taking shape this year. Plus, some have called 1957 a solid analog...the year Audrey formed in the Gulf and rapidly took shape.

Stay focused and be prepared, but try not to read too much into that statement above. Just do what you need to do, but I already know most of you will do that anyway.

-Andrew92

I agree with your post. The atmospheric dynamics over the southern plains is very juicy for such a disturbance. In 2007 Erin kept shape well in Oklahoma, I wouldn't be surprised to see this look just as good inland as it does over the water in some cases, with pressure possibly not weaken too much over land.

[cycloneye]

They put the delay into effect last year where you don't get the BT updates as far as naming and such, does this mean a special advisory is on the way?

I guess they can wait one hour until the regular advisory time to prepare all the tools that they have including communicating and coordinating with the local NWS offices.

[wkwally]

I am not seeing anything yet on the NHC website have there been any warnings posted?

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know, I really don't want to sound any alarm bells here, but I have a question. About how long can we reasonably expect this to stay over the water?

Bill looks to have 45-knot winds and a 1005 mb pressure, though some recon reports indicate it could be lower. And this system still looks like it is getting better organized. I have to hope that we don't see this spend at least 24 more hours over water. Why?

Because at 00Z on August 16, 1983, Alicia had this same exact wind speed, and same exact pressure. She would become a hurricane exactly 24 hours later, in a very similar location. I have said in previous posts in the Talkin' Tropics forum that I wouldn't be surprised with a storm like Alicia or Anita taking shape this year. Plus, some have called 1957 a solid analog...the year Audrey formed in the Gulf and rapidly took shape.

Stay focused and be prepared, but try not to read too much into that statement above. Just do what you need to do, but I already know most of you will do that anyway.

-Andrew92

I agree with your post. The atmospheric dynamics over the southern plains is very juicy for such a disturbance. In 2007 Erin kept shape well in Oklahoma, I wouldn't be surprised to see this look just as good inland as it does over the water in some cases, with pressure possibly not weaken too much over land.

It should also be noted, there was another tropical storm not long after Alicia in the same general area: Barry. It took a little less time to become a hurricane when it had 45-knot winds, though its pressure was 1002 mb at the time. But if some recon reports have hinted at a pressure of 1001-1002 mb earlier on today, maybe a hurricane should be considered, if it has just enough time to work with over water. That will be the big key, I think.

Soon-to-be Bill appears to be moving about the same clip as Barry was. Could it pull it off, or come just short? Leaning strong tropical storm, but could go either way.

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

Charley 1998 looks like a possibly good analog as far as track and development at this point now.

[jasons2k]

All,

Just a reminder as things ramp-up, please use the official forecasts and directives from the National Hurricane Center and your local OEM offices to make any decisions regarding life or property.

Stay safe and be cautious, everyone.

[wkwally]

I remember Hermine here in Brownsville as it developed real quick and did more damage to my property than Dolly.

[stephen23]

Are there anymore flights tonight or is that it?

[tropicwatch]

Not tell early in the morning.

[wkwally]

Is it just me but when I am looking at the sat it looks as if it is stalling some or at least slowing the forward motion

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stephen23]

ok. thank you for the answer. Also... If this storm is moving NNW would that mean that the section of storm with the strongest winds wasn't even sampled in last mission? From my understating the strongest winds are to the exact right of storm but that is relative to the direction of the storm. Looks like from google earth images that what was samples was a little south of due east from the coc. With the storm moving NNW then wouldn't the strongest winds be more around ENE to NE?

[NDG]

Bill is going to be added to the list in which global models do not do well in this part of the GOM.
At this rate I would not be surprised if it is a strong and strengthening tropical storm in the morning as it makes landfall.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Are there anymore flights tonight or is that it?

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 16/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 16/0915Z - 4:15 am CDT departure from Biloxi, MS
D. 28.2N 96.3W
E. 16/1115Z TO 16/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[PauleinHouston]

Special Message from NHC Issued 16 Jun 2015 01:51 UTC
NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Nice look...