ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

8pm TWO.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about midway between
Africa and Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next day or two while the wave moves quickly
westward at around 20 mph. By late this week, atmospheric conditions
are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[OuterBanker]

Hmm, both the hwrf and the European develop Erika into major somewhere between the usvi and Bahamas. Both west of 65. Yes this week we will have a very strong protective trough. But, there could be a weaker trough as well as a trough split about the time of arrival. Could be a very interesting labor day week.

[Gustywind]

Looks like it continues to lose more latitude looking at the loops. Saved wide atlantic loop:

At this rate and given that it could lose more latitude, i Wonder if 98L could eventually travel towards the Leewards and even the EC? Hope that this thing will stay away from us unless bringing nice amount of water because we don't know if Danny will bring the water we want in many areas of the EC, Leewards , Northern Leewards, BVI and PR.

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore · 12m12 minutes ago
Invest 98L is probably a depression now, but lacks any deep convection at this time.

[Hammy]

Convection and outflow continue to build, looking close to TD status. ASCAT pass would be nice to get a clearer idea of organization.

[gatorcane]

Convection and outflow continue to build, looking close to TD status. ASCAT pass would be nice to get a clearer idea of organization.

Indeed, convection building, saved loop:

[floridasun78]

do you all think this going have same issue as Danny look like shear still their and dry area???

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 24, 2015:


Location: 13.8°N 38.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[gatorcane]

This invest is looking rather good with deep red showing up on IR. shouldn't be too long before it is classified as a depression. Continues to lose some latitude under a very strong ridge and really moving quickly:

Saved loop:

[tolakram]

It's going to pass Danny up at this rate!

[tolakram]

And just like that it's in range of this live IR loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Siker]

Expect a designation at 11:00am or 5:00pm tomorrow if convection holds, given what happened with convection today.

[drezee]

I know there is protocol and all but in the environment and forward speed...if the LLC closes then for all intents and purposes it should go to TS On the first advisory. You are not going to close a tropical depression going 25mph...

[Brent]

Erika may be coming real soon

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become show signs of
organization this morning in association with a low pressure system
located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands. The
low is gradually becoming better defined and environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression could form later today or on Tuesday while the system
moves westward at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[AJC3]

Convection and outflow continue to build, looking close to TD status. ASCAT pass would be nice to get a clearer idea of organization.

From last evening...

[Hammy]

Quite an improvement in the structure in about two hours, you can see banding starting to take shape in the second pass along with general consolidation and what appears to be a better defined circulation overall.

[YoshiMike]

Agreed. Honestly feel like this will get upgraded later today and by the LATEST Tuesday morning imo.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 98L. Should be something soon...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/0545 UTC 13.5N 40.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
23/2345 UTC 13.6N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[N2FSU]

It won't be long now...

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 98, 2015082406, , BEST, 0, 136N, 408W, 30, 1007, LO