WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH MARINE AND WIND GRIDS TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN BRINGING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TOWARD THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHAT PATH 95W WILL TAKE AS IT NEARS THE MARIANAS AND HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW RAINFALL INCREASING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY SO HAVE ADDED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND WILL LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN SHOWING 95W HEADING
TOWARD THE WNW...ABSORBING 94W AROUND THURSDAY...THEN PROCEEDING
TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THERE IS STILL QUESTION ON HOW STRONG THE
SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT AFFECTS THE MARIANAS AND EXACTLY WHERE IT
WILL PASS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 95W HAS BEGUN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WNW. AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS PICK UP ON THIS MOTION...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL DECREASE.

[euro6208]

GFS takes a 970's typhoon through the Marianas near Saipan on a last second turn to the north...Any deviation would bring it closer to Guam...Peaks it at 947 mb southeast of Okinawa and makes landfall in Southern Japan...

[euro6208]

Looking like an upgrade soon with a huge burst of convection...

[wxman57]

ASCAT indicated 35kt winds last evening, along with a tight LLC. JMA (official agency of West Pac) upgraded it to a TD yesterday but it appears to have TS winds as of 2330z.

[euro6208]

09W NINE 150630 0600 9.8N 160.2E WPAC 25 1004

09W on the last day of June is here!

[wxman57]

Looks like plenty of 30kt winds and a few 35kt winds on the ASCAT image that just arrived.

[euro6208]

Up to 2.0!


TPPN11 PGTW 301212

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (NE OF POHNPEI)

B. 30/1132Z

C. 10.10N

D. 159.45E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0. MET YIELDS A 1.5.
DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0700Z 9.95N 159.87E WIND
30/0841Z 9.90N 159.67E GPMI
30/1021Z 10.02N 159.72E MMHS


UEHARA

[euro6208]

09W NINE 150630 1200 9.6N 160.3E WPAC 30 1000

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS.

TS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 30 June 2015
<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°00'(10.0°)
E159°25'(159.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°10'(10.2°)
E157°10'(157.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E154°10'(154.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E150°35'(150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

First warning has TD Chan-hom at 80 knots category 1 just northeast of Saipan!

[cycloneye]

TS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 30 June 2015
<Analyses at 30/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°00'(10.0°)
E158°40'(158.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E155°40'(155.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E152°10'(152.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E144°00'(144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 10.0N 159.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 159.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.5N 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1N 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.5N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.3N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.6N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 159.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM WEST
OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
WEST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
SOME FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 301736Z SSMIS
PARTIAL PASS SHOWS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REINFORCES THIS WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF
EASTERLY VWS AFFECTING TS CHAN-HOM. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 35 KNOTS AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
THE STR BEING THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE. BEYOND THAT, INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON CHAN-
HOM'S TRACK, FORCING A TRACK SPEED SLOW-DOWN BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72
AS WELL AS A FLATTER TRACK, WITH PERHAPS A SOUTHERN COMPONENT. WHILE
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST, THERE WILL BE HIGH OHC VALUES ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDING FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT TS 09W TO ABSORB THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE (94W) AS IT CHOKES
THE WEAKER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH THE OVERALL
STEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
AGREEMENT OF A GENERALLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING STR
RETREATS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS
AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO passes this Between Guam and Rota...

GFS has an unusual track...It stalls it uncomfortably close south of Guam and lifts it north, passes Guam to the east and heads north to Saipan!

[euro6208]

LLC still exposed...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 302105
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST WED JUL 1 2015

...CHAN-HOM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 159.3E

ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 415 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 535 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 975 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1010 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.3
DEGREES EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

KLEESCHULTE
!--NOT SENT--!

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
Tuesday 30jun15 Time: 1827 UTC
Latitude: 10.12 Longitude: 159.55
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 19 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 995 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 48 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.85
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.99
RMW: 74 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1007
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 06 Day: 30 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

I'd go 45 now.

[cycloneye]

Guam in the bullseye.

[dexterlabio]

I wonder why the JTWC isn't bullish on its intensity forecast.

[euro6208]

I wonder why the JTWC isn't bullish on its intensity forecast.

Maybe the interaction with this to 94W?


WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LLCC. A 010305Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO
THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 09W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 09W WILL MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED AS TS CHAN-HOM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL AREA OF DISTURBANCE (94W) MENTIONED IN
THE ABPW10 PGTW 010600. CONCURRENTLY, THE STR WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS 09W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
C. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
CURRENT TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN