WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Las agencias tiene un consensus, posibile impactando a Luzon Central (practicing my Spanish )

Now trending away from a recurve which MU/GFS predicted

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
DATA INCLUDING A 040923Z SSMIS PASS AND A 041141Z METOP-B IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS SCATTEROMETER
DATA FROM A 041141Z ASCAT PASS. TS 06W HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED BAND SITUATED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTER CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD AND REORIENT AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS WEAKENED RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. THIS REORIENTED RIDGE WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM
ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE AMONG SOLUTIONS, BUT ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFDN INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER OR
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF YAP. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PRIMARY MODEL
GROUPING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
MORE NOTICEABLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH A GROUPING CONSISTING OF GFS,
GEFS, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC DEPICTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND A
SECOND GROUPING CONSISTING OF ECMWF, NAVGEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND
THE JAPANESE TC-EPS DEPICTING A FLATTER TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER GROUPING BASED ON ANTICIPATED
EVOLUTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN CURRENT
MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Moving west, closing in to Yap

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 MAY 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 9:36:02 N Lon : 139:22:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.9mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 53km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.0 degrees

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041901
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
500 AM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NOUL SLOWLY APPROACHING YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE. A
TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE WINDING DOWN ON FAIS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON ON
ULITHI.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 139.4E

ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-SOUTHWEST...250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOUL WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
139.4 DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF NOUL PASSED JUST SOUTH OF ULITHI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF YAP WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM NOUL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

JMA makes landfall over Luzon 990mb



CMC misses Luzon and Batanes and recurves but barely



EURO now showing a stronger Noul at landfall which has been showing only a TS at peak



GFS strikes Yap, peaks at 935 mb, and almost a direct hit on Luzon and Batanes

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning by JTWC:



WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 77 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. BOTH 041632Z NOAA-19 AND 041528Z GCOMW MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEAL TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS NOUL IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD AND REORIENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
AND SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TS 06W TO STEADILY
INTENSITY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER OR SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF YAP. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE. MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE, BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM TRACKERS COMING CLOSER. DUE TO CURRENT MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC
FORECAST OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Low chance next 24 hours.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 156.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 042021Z SSMIS
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stronger... Moved SW

06W NOUL 150505 0000 9.4N 138.9E WPAC 55 982

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Similar storm to this was Ruby 1988. Caused significant flooding over Luzon particularly the capital Manila

[cycloneye]

TS 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 May 2015
<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°35'(9.6°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°00'(10.0°)
E137°55'(137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E135°35'(135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E131°50'(131.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06W NOUL 150505 0000 9.4N 138.9E WPAC 55 982

System appears to be almost stalling as per the GFS forecast solution before the recurve.

But never predicted the SW jog too So, maybe not a recurve for now. Agencies in WPAC in general agreement on Central Luzon impact. Moving at 11 kph so not stalling

[cycloneye]

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning:



WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING 050016Z
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE TIGHTLY-WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND 042003Z
RAPIDSCAT WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS NOUL IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS
06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS
FORECASTED TO BUILD AND REORIENT, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
AND SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE VWS AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
ALLOWING TS 06W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER YAP. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR
PERHAPS INTENSIFY FURTHER AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CTCX AND GFDN, THE BULK
OF MODEL TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE COME SLIGHTLY TOGETHER.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, JTWC FORECAST OVERALL
CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//

[dexterlabio]

EC's a recurve



http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... &amp;RES=0

The recurve as depicted by the computer models and agency forecast tracks is too close for comfort for PI. A slight nudge can make a difference, besides a cyclone isn't just a dot to affect only those along the trackline. The east coast of Luzon could be affected and should keep an eye on it IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why would it recurve? Wouldn't the ridge rebuild? It would steer the system more westwards the more powerful it becomes and the break would make a slight NW turn before resuming its normal track. What is likely is that the Philippines would still have at least moderate impact.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe something like Rammasun 2014 but like Ivan 1997, which would mean the best analog typhoon for both track and intensity would be Ruby 1988 as mentioned.

[dexterlabio]

:uarrow: Did not say it don't need to be watched was pointing out the EC is not ploughing,
the over central luzon as depicted in the posted graphic drawing a inference to a similar storm track to was Ruby 1988.

IMO and its amateur like yours is to this system's center wont make landfall in the PI.

I get it, we all have our insights (amateur or sounded) and we are responsible not to wishcast nor to show lack of vigilance in our own forecasts. My only point is that based on available model guidance, the likely point of recurve (if the recurve scenario pans out) is still quite close to land and the east coast of Luzon could still see some nasty weather, whether it makes landfall or not..just my amateur insight.

[dexterlabio]

I can't say this will be similar to Ruby 1988 trackwise given the time of year when it occurred (STR in North Asia is somehow weaker at this point compared to last quarter of the year, plus the ongoing El Nino episode tends to have stronger digging troughs, resulting the weaker STR)

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050933
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NOUL EDGING CLOSER TO YAP ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ULITHI IS CANCELLED.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 138.8E

ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 485 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOUL WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
138.8 DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 2 MPH...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION
LATER TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK WILL TAKE NOUL OVER YAP SOMETIME OVER
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 50 TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM NOUL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 MAY 2015 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 9:29:46 N Lon : 138:42:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.5

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 53km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.3 degrees