ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Alyono
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#461 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:55 am

SC may not be out of play based upon the trend from the 12Z MU
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#462 Postby jhpigott » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:56 am

stormlover2013 wrote:man this is to close to Florida comfort no doubt


I know all the models and professional mets are confident in the N turn once Joaquin gets into the Bahamas, but sitting here along the coast in Northern Palm Beach county about 60 miles from Grand Bahama Island - well, let's just say too close for comfort indeed
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#463 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:56 am

Still southwest of the 6z at 54 hours. Im going to guess that landfall will be further south in North Carolina on this run.
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#464 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:56 am

:uarrow: Yep, this is going to come in good bit further south
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#465 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:57 am

GFS drops into the 920s.
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#466 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:00 am

GFS is gonna "yank" (Pull) this into NC it appears.
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#467 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:01 am

GFS triple's down and says not only are the Euro and I blood enemies...I will send the storm even further SW as the Euro sends it out to sea. Good Luck NHC...Either the GFS is right or the Euro has pulled the Coup of Coups!

This is a Penthouse or Gutter Scenarios...There can be only one...
Last edited by drezee on Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#468 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:01 am

72 hours is Northwest of the 6z. Looks to be heading for a central north carolina landfall.
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#469 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:01 am

Yup....wow, this would be the crazy crap you could see out in the WPAC with lows getting pulled into other lows and stuff. Almost like a fujiwara effect.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#470 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:04 am

Landfall Sunday morning SE North Carolina (Between Wilmington and Jacksonville) then goes through the state relatively slowly and loops back east? around Charlotte.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#471 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:04 am

Just curious the GFS has been in this area or there abouts for a few runs so why is this model run a big deal. If the euro shifts west then I would be a bit more concerned IMHO
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#472 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:04 am

Pretty big southwest shift from the 12z GFS. Anymore Southwest shifts and South Carolina will need to look out. Will be interesting to see just how far south and west this gets in the next 24-48 hours.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#473 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:06 am

deltadog03 wrote:GFS is gonna "yank" (Pull) this into NC it appears.


Chris et al,
Landfall of 12Z GFS ~6 hours earlier than and ~75 miles SW of the 6Z GFS in NC. The further south initialization likely was the main factor imo. This illustrates how important are each of these further south adjustments in the actual track. So, this needs to be monitored closely since it relates to what it will do downstream in the US.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#474 Postby Rail Dawg » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:06 am

What is the identifier for the EURO model?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#475 Postby windnrain » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:07 am

Can you post the GFS model?
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#476 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:08 am

Seconded. Please post the GFS :)
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Re:

#477 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:10 am

bahamaswx wrote:Seconded. Please post the GFS :)


Landfall in SE NC on 12Z GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_16.png
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Re:

#478 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:11 am

deltadog03 wrote:GFS is gonna "yank" (Pull) this into NC it appears.

It has to give the 500 mb pattern. I was wondering if would do a loop and then hit further north just for good measure.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#479 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:12 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Pretty big southwest shift from the 12z GFS. Anymore Southwest shifts and South Carolina will need to look out. Will be interesting to see just how far south and west this gets in the next 24-48 hours.
12ZGFS moves it WSE into south Carolina after Landfall. Almost looks like a circle :double: :lol:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#480 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Wed Sep 30, 2015 11:14 am

Not sure I am buying that run :roll:
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