WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Oh dear let's hope it won't turn to Saipan...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140718
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP162015
500 PM CHST FRI AUG 14 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W FORMS EAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IN THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA IN THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 149.8E

ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN AND
ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.8 EAST...
MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
ON SATURDAY WHILE SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 16W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TUTT
CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES DISRUPTING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT
MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REASSUME THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. TD 16W WILL MAINTAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OPTIMAL TO
CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL ONCE AGAIN REDUCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASE THE VWS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDUCE THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
JTWC TRACK CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z EURO direct hit for Saipan which is still in recovery mode...



Down to 948 mb in 120 hours...



Peak...



Landfall for poor Taiwan...

[euro6208]

06Z GFS on and off consistently brings this north or south of Saipan and intensity is a monster or a moderate typhoon...Brings it down to a peak of 909 mb and makes landfall over Taiwan as a Cat 5...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 141145
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
945 PM CHST FRI AUG 14 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W DRIFTING WEST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS ON GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN...SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS IN THE MARIANA
ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...SAIPAN AND
ADJACENT WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
ADJACENT WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.5N...LONGITUDE 149.6E...ABOUT 315 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 350 MILES EAST OF GUAM. IT IS DRIFTING
WEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TONIGHT...THEN NORTHWESTWARD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY TAKE 16W THROUGH THE CNMI NORTH OF
SAIPAN ON MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO EXECUTE YOUR TYPHOON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN...
INSPECT YOUR TYPHOON SHELTERS AND BEGIN TO MAKE ARRANGEMENTS FOR
TAKING CARE OF ELDERS. MAKE SURE TO HAVE SUPPLY OF WATER...FOOD
AND FRESH BATTERIES AT HOME. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE TO SAFELY
SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND
SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

CLOSELY MONITOR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
ANNOUNCEMENTS BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES FOR THE LATEST
STORM INFORMATION.

&&

GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-141815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
945 PM CHST FRI AUG 14 2015

...WINDS AND SEAS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF 16W PASSES NORTH OF
SAIPAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR ROTA IF THE TRACK
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF...
SEAS WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...REACHING 12 TO 14 FEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 FEET OR HIGHER
IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET. SEAS
AND SURF WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-141815-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
945 PM CHST FRI AUG 14 2015

...WINDS AND SEAS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND COULD INCREASE TO
TYPHOON FORCE OF 74 MPH OR MORE MONDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF
16W PASSES NORTH OF SAIPAN.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS WILL BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...REACHING 13 TO 15
FEET SUNDAY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO ABOVE 15 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUS SURF OF 15 FEET OR HIGHER IS POSSIBLE...
ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET. SEAS AND SURF WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MONDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 3 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

CHAN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140837Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 16W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WITH AN
EQUATORWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TUTT CELL IS NOW LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ABOVE 28 CELSIUS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 16W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPLICATES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, TOWARDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL, EXPECT
MODEST INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEYOND
TAU 36, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REASSUME THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY, THE TUTT CELL WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM TD 16W, PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, TD 16W
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) DUE TO STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
C. TD 16W WILL MAINTAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OPTIMAL TO
CONTINUE RI THROUGH TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, DEGRADED UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND LOWER OHC VALUES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEEDS
DIFFERENCES AMONG AVAILABLE TRACKERS IN THE SHORT TERM, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS GONI.

TS 1515 (GONI)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 14 August 2015


<Analyses at 14/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E148°10'(148.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E147°05'(147.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°00'(16.0°)
E145°25'(145.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 17/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E141°25'(141.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[Dave C]

Almost seems that it's reformed west under small ball of convection. Microwave pass should be interesting.

[euro6208]

16W SIXTEEN 150814 1800 12.8N 148.3E WPAC 35 996

15th TS of the season!

[euro6208]

Very heavy rains over the Marianas especially Guam...

[euro6208]

12Z EURO is more south passing this through the Rota Channel between Guam and Saipan, peaks it at 910 mb and has a close call with Okinawa...

[euro6208]

GFS is much more tame passes this over Saipan as a TS strengthening isn't as robust as EURO only peaking this at 966 mb and slams it to Taiwan...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ61 PGUM 142004
TCUPQ1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP162015
600 AM CHST SAT AUG 15 2015

...558 AM CHST...1958 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 558 AM CHST...1958 UTC...THE DEVELOPING EYE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 16W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 DEGREES
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 190 MILES
EAST OF THE GUAM DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT ELEVATION 0.5 DEGREES
AND A HEIGHT OF 26800 FEET. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON A 33 NM
WIDE FORMATIVE BANDING EYE WHICH IS JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP.

THIS POSITION IS ABOUT

180 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
405 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
360 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
190 MILES EAST OF GUAM

RADAR-DETERMINED MOTION OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR
IS 9 KT (10 MPH) AT 280 DEGREES...WEST.

SUMMARY OF 558 AM CHST...1958 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 147.6E ELEVATION...26800 FEET ABOUT 190 MILES
EAST...95 DEGREES...OF THE GUAM RADAR. MOVEMENT IS WEST...280
DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS (10 MPH) OVER THE PAST HOUR. CONFIDENCE
IN THE EYE POSITION IS POOR AS THIS IS AT THE OUTER EDGE OF
RADAR RANGE AND IT ONLY SHOWS UP ON THE 0.5 DEGREE ELEVATION
SLICE.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 AUG 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 12:56:18 N Lon : 148:05:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1005.7mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -37.9C Cloud Region Temp : -49.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.68 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:43:47 N Lon: 147:05:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.6 degrees

[euro6208]

Big shift to the south bringing it over Rota...

[Yellow Evan]

Goni looks better than Atsani. Convection however has decreased a little due to some northerly (previously easterly) shear. I'd say it's around 45 knots. Assuming Goni can develop an inner core, I see no reason why this system won't bomb out.

[1900hurricane]

Goni is close enough to where it can be observed by Guam's radar.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 35kts.

16W GONI 150815 0000 13.3N 147.3E WPAC 35 996