WPAC: HIGOS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

JTWC fix came in 1.0 while KNES at 1.5...most likely we will see 02W later on tonight or tomorrow

[euro6208]

All models except GFS now moves this closer to Guam

[euro6208]

Watch out Marianas and Micronesia!

000
WWMY80 PGUM 070326
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 PM CHST SAT FEB 7 2015

GUZ001>004-080600-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
130 PM CHST SAT FEB 7 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF POHNPEI...

AT 100 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11 DEGREES NORTH AND 158 DEGREES EAST...WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY
900 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND AND 285 MILES NORTH OF POHNPEI.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTH. WHILE STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE DISTURBANCE
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE PATH THE DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE. A FEW CONTINUE TO MOVE THE
CIRCULATION NORTH WHILE OTHERS MOVE IT WESTWARD.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE MOTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN
FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Crazy thoughts going on. I would love for this to strengthen to at least a category 3 and hitting Guam...I don't recall any february typhoon hitting us so early...If this was maybe september, things would be alot different

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 070606

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (NE OF POHNPEI)

B. 07/0532Z

C. 10.39N

D. 157.76E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET IS UNAVAILABLE AND PT YIELDS A 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[euro6208]

02W TWO 150207 0600 10.5N 157.7E WPAC 25 1004

Upgrade to TD 02W!

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.5N 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9N 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.8N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.3N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.0N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.8N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 157.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

958 mb well east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070744Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 062321Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW ISOLATED 30 KNOT WIND
BARBS OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON MATCHING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. SLOW AND/OR POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS TD 02W IS LOCATED IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO STRS: ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONE TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BUILD
AND DOMINATE THE STEERING PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
BIFURCATION SCENARIO. NVGM, JENS, AND GFDN DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
WHILE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW A RECURVE. BASED ON CURRENT
ANALYSIS, THE WESTWARD TRACK IS UNLIKELY AS TD 02W IS LOCATED IN A
BREAK BETWEEN TWO RIDGES CAUSING TD 02W TO SLOW DOWN AND/OR TRACK
POLEWARD. ADDITIONALLY, NVGM ENSEMBLE DEPICTS AMBIGUITY AMONG EACH
MEMBER WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE SOLUTION. THEREFORE, JTWC FAVORS GFS
SOLUTIONS POSITIONING THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF AVAILABLE
RECURVING TRACKERS. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONG AVAILABLE
TRACKERS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

It's current track stays it over heat content of 50-75 much longer...Higher OHC is nearer to Guam...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If only the GFS and GFS Ensemble are showing the recurve, and the rest show westerly tracks, then why did the JTWC put weight on one model only and disregarding the majority yet insist on recurve? Quite disappointing. They should put more weight on the ECMWF in terms of tracking and path. The models are trending west and south and it's also surprising they follow the stubborn GFS which also tends to underestimate the subtropical ridge especially with two out of the three past storms. (Hagupit and Mekkhala)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:lol: Crazy thoughts going on. I would love for this to strengthen to at least a category 3 and hitting Guam...I don't recall any february typhoon hitting us so early...If this was maybe september, things would be alot different

Not knowing you'd regret it. How inconsiderate.. Think about others in Guam who are first-timers on typhoons and those traumatized. Think not about yourself

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If (hopefully not) the storm continues to intensify rapidly and become a fairly powerful one, then the more west it goes. Meaning a monster (what NAVGEM is showing) would track possibly to the Philippines.... Just a possibility

[euro6208]

Getting closer may stack interesting possible RI if does.


Lots of low level cloud usually indicates a future eye-wall development.



EC not budging on the Guam track U may need to batten down the hatches euro .

EURO does weaken it considerably on a track closer to Saipan...Maybe due to the northeast cold surge during this time of year...

[euro6208]

:lol: Crazy thoughts going on. I would love for this to strengthen to at least a category 3 and hitting Guam...I don't recall any february typhoon hitting us so early...If this was maybe september, things would be alot different

Not knowing you'd regret it. How inconsiderate.. Think about others in Guam who are first-timers on typhoons and those traumatized. Think not about yourself

Guam is the best place in america to experience these kind of storms. Infrastructure is superb...Don't know anyone worried about this...Locals and the U.S military stationed here are crazy. They love these kind of weather. Beer, sports, and typhoons This is paradise even the first timers are just as crazy...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:lol: Crazy thoughts going on. I would love for this to strengthen to at least a category 3 and hitting Guam...I don't recall any february typhoon hitting us so early...If this was maybe september, things would be alot different

Not knowing you'd regret it. How inconsiderate.. Think about others in Guam who are first-timers on typhoons and those traumatized. Think not about yourself

Guam is the best place in america to experience these kind of storms. Infrastructure is superb...Don't know anyone worried about this...Locals and the U.S military stationed here are crazy. They love these kind of weather. Beer, sports, and typhoons This is paradise even the first timers are just as crazy...

Stop bragging about your resources "advanced". Even much more advanced countries like the Continental US and Japan suffered with more than a thousand deaths with some storms. You're ignoring the minority of people who don't like typhoons and assumptions that everyone likes typhoons

You should also know what stormstrike felt during HAIYAN:
"excitement then regret and hardship"

[euro6208]

Already 2.5...

TXPQ23 KNES 070916
TCSWNP

A. 02W (NONAME)

B. 07/0832Z

C. 10.6N

D. 157.7E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET=2.0 WITH PT=2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

07/0629Z 10.3N 157.8E TMI
07/0744Z 10.3N 157.8E SSMIS


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

I remember Super Typhoon Pongsona back in December of 2002...JTWC forecast it to recurve well east of the Marianas due to GFS but subsequently with each run had it moving more west and hitting Guam as a super typhoon...

Watch GFS align with EURO on this one...

[euro6208]

.

That's the thing...This system is forecast to stall/slowdown for over 40 hours...That weakness won't be there by then and possibly bringing it to Guam...

[euro6208]

NAVGEM still modeling on it's westward track while strengthening...