ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#361 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:01 am

Euro @ 48hrs.

#362 Postby **JtSmarts** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:04 am

93 guests online and it's 2AM on the east coast, almost like it's 2004-2005 again.

#363 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:06 am

JtSmarts wrote:93 guests online and it's 2AM on the east coast, almost like it's 2004-2005 again.

Yup, and enough people hitting instantweathermaps that it has slowed to a crawl.

#364 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:07 am

JtSmarts wrote:93 guests online and it's 2AM on the east coast, almost like it's 2004-2005 again.

Can't remember last time I waited for late night model runs..and who would think in this el nino

#365 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:08 am

Comparison to 12Z Euro at 72: pretty similar and probably again well out to sea but not sure yet as this suggests a bit of a closer call. Let's see.

#366 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:09 am

#367 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:09 am

@60 hours (using weatherbell) it's moving north from Bahamas. @66h it's moving NNE

#368 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:11 am

Now, if the Euro has any respect for physics whatsoever, it should swing Joaquin a bit to the right, and then into the mid-atlantic with that massive southern stream vort (Nino-esq)

#369 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:14 am

A third in a row Euro run hitting Bahamas and possibly Bermuda but not the US it appears.

Hammy · #370 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:15 am

LarryWx wrote:A third in a row Euro run hitting Bahamas and possibly Bermuda but not the US it appears.

Hasn't the Euro had a bit or a right bias this year?

#371 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:16 am

#372 Postby **JtSmarts** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 am

Looks like the Euro says "I won't fold", wouldn't want to be the NHC as time is ticking.

#373 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:17 am

Hammy wrote:
LarryWx wrote:A third in a row Euro run hitting Bahamas and possibly Bermuda but not the US it appears.

Hasn't the Euro had a bit or a right bias this year?

Hammy,
To be honest, I can't clearly recall that at the moment even though you may be right. If so, has it had more of a right bias than other major models?

#374 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:18 am

Looks like it's out to sea at this point. Funny how it was the Euro at first who created the east coast landfall madness and now it shows a fish.

#375 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:20 am

What I will be most interested in is the ensembles. This is just 1 of the what? 52 members? Or is it 37? I don't remember...some crazy number! But where do the ensembles shift to?

#376 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:21 am

What will the NHC do tomorrow morning...
wow

#377 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:21 am

Note that the 0Z Euro isn't as far out to sea after hour 96 vs the 12Z Euro. Maybe that's a sign of future trends back to the US??

#378 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:22 am

Just wild to think that Joiquin is basically going to be in the same place for 48 hours according to the EURO. Beyond a slow westward drift, I'm wondering if upwelling will play much of a role. Though I think that effect woud be marginlized given the very warm ocean heat content that must exist further below the surface than typical Atlantic depths might contain.

#379 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:23 am

120 hours

#380 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:24 am

Let's not forget that the 00z GFS Ensemble mean shifted east as well.

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