ATL: DANNY - Models

[Riptide]

It's playing out exactly as some posters thought it would on the GFS. Whoever mentioned Hurricane Betsy was right on the money.

[SFLcane]

It's playing out exactly as some posters thought it would on the GFS. Whoever mentioned Hurricane Betsy was right on the money.

Not even close sharp recurve for the fish.

[CrazyC83]

Recurve?

I have a hard time seeing a recurve with that ridge there and building...that looks like a loop or stalling out...

[tolakram]

Recurving

[Riptide]

It's playing out exactly as some posters thought it would on the GFS. Whoever mentioned Hurricane Betsy was right on the money.

Not even close sharp recurve for the fish.

I'll take the under 216 hours out. GFS probably over-amplifying something in the pipeline.

[Hurricaneman]

Recurve?

I have a hard time seeing a recurve with that ridge there and building...that looks like a loop or stalling out...

I dont know what ridge you're seeing in this run but it looks like a trough comes and picks it up at 204

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[tolakram]

Recurve?

I have a hard time seeing a recurve with that ridge there and building...that looks like a loop or stalling out...

Well keep in mind this is way out there and the GFS has been horrible at upper dynamics this far out ... but

There is no ridge at this timeframe.

[SFLcane]

It's playing out exactly as some posters thought it would on the GFS. Whoever mentioned Hurricane Betsy was right on the money.

Not even close sharp recurve for the fish.

I'll take the under 216 hours out. GFS probably over-amplifying something in the pipeline.

Na...Its the usual 85 percent of CV storms recurve.

[Riptide]

It's in the COL region of the departing trough. It's not going to get very far all. So much could change this far out.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I want the GFS to be right but I believe it is wrong. Just a run ago it had this thing entering the Gulf of Mexico. If the other models follow suit then I will believe it.

[Bocadude85]

Not even close sharp recurve for the fish.

I'll take the under 216 hours out. GFS probably over-amplifying something in the pipeline.

Na...Its the usual 85 percent of CV storms recurve.

18z had a Tampa landfall. I wouldn't put to much stock in one model run. We all know the models will keep changing over the next several days.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Agreed but let us hope the GFS model is right for the sake of the CONUS. Either way the Islands get affected though.

[Kingarabian]

Guys and gals, relax. Just one run. Though it's worth noting that the 12z Euro ensembles also shifted slightly east away from the Caribbean.

1 hour and we'll see what the Euro has to say.

[wxman57]

I see the 00Z GFS has Danny clipping the NE Caribbean and recurving near the Turks & Caicos Islands. Max intensity is reached near Bermuda. That's possible. 00Z Euro coming in now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I see the 00Z GFS has Danny clipping the NE Caribbean and recurving near the Turks & Caicos Islands. Max intensity is reached near Bermuda. That's possible. 00Z Euro coming in now.

wow, recurve now huh? Amazing how quick things change.....

[Hammy]

Euro looks to be much weaker even than the previous run, pretty much peaking Danny where it's currently at.

[wxman57]

Through 99 hours, 00Z Euro is about 3 degrees farther west with the center.

Valid 03Z Sunday:
GFS: 15.2N/53.5W
EC: 15.2N/56W

At 111hrs (15Z Sunday):
GFS: 15.7N / 56.1W
Euro: 15.5N / 58.8W

By Monday evening, the Euro has a weakening TS passing south of PR - then dissipating south of the DR.

EC has a big weakness in the ridge to the north of PR Sunday/Monday, giving Danny an avenue to recurve between 65W-70W if it remains intact.

[TheStormExpert]

Smelling Fishy!


Go figure there would be a trough as usual off the East Coast to save the day, the saying saved by the trough continues!

[BobHarlem]

So the Euro steadily weakens it, and shears it to death entering the Eastern Caribbean, and the GFS is leaning toward it missing the islands completely to the north and recurving (Both the 0Z and 6z runs)? Best news is the fact the 6Z GFS run keeps it away from all land. I hope that trend continues.

[gatorcane]

06z GFS shifted back west and has a strong system stalling just east of the Bahamas before turning north. The GFS tends to break down ridges in long range. That stall is concerning because the next few runs may show it back into Florida