ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanekid416]

The llc will probably get absorbed by the trof but the mlc further behind will probably still be around

[northjaxpro]

Water Vapor imagery wide view. One thing I see is that the Cut-off Upper Low is nudging slightly east-northeast. ULL serving as a huge moisture pump source bringing moisture all the way down from the Eastern Pacific northeast towards Florida. You can see 99L way out there just entering the wide view during the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[Tireman4]

Looks like Erika's remnants will be drawn northward up the trof in the eastern Gulf tomorrow. There's no surface feature to track any longer. Redevelopment chances 5% or lower.

jim i report from spaceshio that ERIKA dead for good live in pace see you few years

We will miss him dearly....still hurts..

[psyclone]

Flood watches now include all of the MLB and MIA CWAs and Tampa bay's from Hernando county south...basically all of central & southern fl.

[ronjon]

I think the vort low level feature will die out. It looks as though maybe something now may develop near the presumed mid level center near 20.5N-75W.

[northjaxpro]

I think the vort low level feature will die out. It looks as though maybe something now may develop near the presumed mid level center near 20.5N-75W.

Yes, I can clearly see the Mid-Level Circulation at those coordinates. The current low level vort is approaching the periphery of the ridge now, and it will turn northwest into that weakness as the trough will likely absorb it. The MLC feature may be the feature to watch as you indicated . Very complex set-up making for challengeing forecasts for sure. The rainfall situation here in Florida is really a great concern right now that is a certainty.

[boca]

I think the vort low level feature will die out. It looks as though maybe something now may develop near the presumed mid level center near 20.5N-75W.

Im looking down where you think the mid level is and I don't see anything getting its act together in that area?

[SouthFloridawx]

I think the vort low level feature will die out. It looks as though maybe something now may develop near the presumed mid level center near 20.5N-75W.

Im looking down where you think the mid level is and I don't see anything getting its act together in that area?

It's like you said. You were in the cone, so game over.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think they named it 90l to keep it on stome forum

[Frank P]

I think the vort low level feature will die out. It looks as though maybe something now may develop near the presumed mid level center near 20.5N-75W.

Im looking down where you think the mid level is and I don't see anything getting its act together in that area?

I just looked at it to... to me it even looks like it is weakening as well... obviously a weak mid level circulation but not looking to healthy attm.... lets see what tonight brings if anything... me thinks this game just might be over as well..

[boca]

Just a rainmaker here which on the SE coast is a blessing,and sorry about the rest of Florida that dossn't need it.

[tgenius]

Just a rainmaker here which on the SE coast is a blessing,and sorry about the rest of Florida that dossn't need it.

Doesnt appear to be too much rain as of yet but supposedly will be later tonight throughout the day tomorrow. We can use the rain down here.

[jhpigott]

The llc will probably get absorbed by the trof but the mlc further behind will probably still be around

Yea, that low level vort we were watching earlier seems to have washed out. But there is still some good turning in the mid levels just off the NE tip of Cuba. Maybe we'll see some convection firing around that mid level circ during DMAX


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

IMO,the name Erika will be retired because of what occurred in Dominica where 20 people died and there was extensive damage.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

The llc will probably get absorbed by the trof but the mlc further behind will probably still be around

Yea, that low level vort we were watching earlier seems to have washed out. But there is still some good turning in the mid levels just off the NE tip of Cuba. Maybe we'll see some convection firing around that mid level circ during DMAX


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Eastern end of Cuba close up last few visible frames.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=22&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&info=vis&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[northjaxpro]

IMO,the name Erika will be retired because of what occurred in Dominica where 20 people died and there was extensive damage.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most definitely I agree with you that Erika's name should be retired. But, hey, I thought Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 should have been retired after the tremendous flooding she caused in Hispaniola and here in Florida, along with making 3 different landfalls across the peninsula. However, they didn't retire the name, which I thought then and still now was a terrible mistake.

[psyclone]

IMO,the name Erika will be retired because of what occurred in Dominica where 20 people died and there was extensive damage.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would be shocked if they retired the name.

[northjaxpro]

Keep in mind the flooding across Hispaniola as well. I have yet to see any reports from there yet. It could be just as bad in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as to what occured in Dominica. Plus, Erika's remnants still are to come and effect the Florida peninsula in the days to come. So, when it is all said and done, Erika's deadly wake and massive flooding imo makes her a very good candiate for retirement, the same way I felt about Fay in 2008.

[robbielyn]

IMO,the name Erika will be retired because of what occurred in Dominica where 20 people died and there was extensive damage.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would be shocked if they retired the name.

I dont think they retire tropical storm names. only hurricanes

[Evil Jeremy]

I dont think they retire tropical storm names. only hurricanes

Tropical Storm Allison, 2001.