ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[xironman]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model...

I can see the ULL killing the southern vort that banged into Hispanola, but the northern one is kind of looking better. Also the plane coming in is at 20000 ft and registering very little wind. The route north of Cuba might not be that bad.

[jlauderdal]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model...

I can see the ULL killing the southern vort that banged into Hispanola, but the northern one is kind of looking better. Also the plane coming in is at 20000 ft and registering very little wind. The route north of Cuba might not be that bad.

the northern route is the only route to success...models did pick this up though so if this transpires today then they should be back on track

[boca]

CraigSetzer3 mins
Also, interesting swirl near Great Inagua. It's probably nothing... http://t.co/RHymJRn1kz

cbs local miami met

That swirl is getting interesting and the models are too far west in my opinion and it looks like that swirl in the Bahamas is becoming dominant

[Frank2]

the news directors really need to get with the weather dept and get some guidance on how to report these systems..this special erika coverage is beyond ridiculous, i feel bad for the anchors and reporters that have to be on board

I agree - I woke at 5 today, and found all 4 local channels hard at it, with reporters standing in empty parking lots, probably feeling silly for reporting a non-story (lets hope it stays that way)...

[xironman]

The southern one is well on the way to the grave, you can see the outflow boundary mentioned earlier, probably when it collapsed

[NDG]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model...

I can see the ULL killing the southern vort that banged into Hispanola, but the northern one is kind of looking better. Also the plane coming in is at 20000 ft and registering very little wind. The route north of Cuba might not be that bad.

The vorticity close to the northern coast of Cuba is under the axis of the ULL, the kind of condition that convection cannot maintain itself, they need UL divergence.

The vorticity wouldn't be able to do much until gets close to the FL straights, after it passes the ULL, if at all. It is racing WNW this morning.

[boca]

The swirl north of the Cuban coast looks like it could get interesting.

[northjaxpro]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model...

I can see the ULL killing the southern vort that banged into Hispanola, but the northern one is kind of looking better. Also the plane coming in is at 20000 ft and registering very little wind. The route north of Cuba might not be that bad.

I agree. I think the northerrn vort you see is the dominant one now. Erika lives on for now.

[Weatherboy1]

Let's be honest: This forecast has been a bust from beginning to end. It's not anyone's fault, per se. The models busted too and intensity is hard to predict. But it is what it is. Just my opinion

[Weatherboy1]

As for where Erika really is now, that north vortex is interesting. But since it's under an ULL, it probably won't be able to strengthen into anything anyway. Oh well. Will keep an eye on it just in case but not exactly concerned anymore herein South FL.

[ronjon]

Yeah this has been a tough system but I don't blame the NHC one bit. If you paid attention and read their discussions none of this would be a surprise. It's the media that hypes this for ratings. Reasonable people in the media would have continued to be cautious with this storm and discussed it's weakening trend. Personally. I think the system now is a wave and probably will be downgraded later today unless that vort along the Cuban coast can take off later today. Will still bring lots of rain to florida though.

[xironman]

As for where Erika really is now, that north vortex is interesting. But since it's under an ULL, it probably won't be able to strengthen into anything anyway. Oh well. Will keep an eye on it just in case but not exactly concerned anymore herein South FL.

Meh, it is not the biggest ULL in the world, probably will look pretty bad at dmin, but after that it may... have a chance



Obviously the placement of the storm is going to change.

[Weatherboy1]

IF that new vortex turns out to be "the" center, there is going to be a huge track reshift, they're going to have to rerun models with a new starting point, and would probably have to put watches/warnings up for South FL in a hurry, in my opinion. Depends on what visible satellite and recon shows, but would be yet another crazy thing to happen with this system.

Just my opinion as a semi educated amateur ... Listen to the experts!

[xironman]

Doesn't look good for recon, maybe an equipment problem?

[NDG]

IF that new vortex turns out to be "the" center, there is going to be a huge track reshift, they're going to have to rerun models with a new starting point, and would probably have to put watches/warnings up for South FL in a hurry, in my opinion. Depends on what visible satellite and recon shows, but would be yet another crazy thing to happen with this system.

Just my opinion as a semi educated amateur ... Listen to the experts!

Not really, if you look at the last couple of runs of the GFS it brings this vorticity quickly into the FL straights by tomorrow morning, about the time it starts encountering better UL conditions, doubt that it will have enough time by then to get much organized.
Which btw, I don't think it is nothing much more than a vorticity this morning, there's no LLC of Erika left.

[jlauderdal]

i promise this will be the last one as we actually have something to look at now and i dont want to clog up the board but this is the media nonsense im talking about....i get it if we really have something intense on our hands..btw, craig setzer replied to me earlier, he gives the models a C-...i dont think any of us would have a problem with craigs assessment



KellyNBC6 1 min
We're all in this together! Special edition of @nbc6 News on Saturday morning. We appreciate you trusting us! @nbc6 http://t.co/135JXNZOze
Retweeted by nbc6


part of the problem is the local news media is directed to tweet and fb as much as possible so they are having to generate as much as content as humanely possible to please their bosses so we end up with complete overkill...for all we know kelly blanco(traffic lady) at nbc 6 miami didn't even tweet that out but it was coming from the social media dept or agency

any way back to our developing situation off the northeast coast of cooba, stay tuned for breaking updates as they happen

[wzrgirl1]

So when will we know if the center has repositioned itself? Is recon in there now? It is hard for me to see it.

[xironman]

Back on track

[xironman]

Decent water temps on that route

[NDG]

I guess the recon is going to investigate the 5 AM estimated position first off the SW tip of Haiti, it is going over the vorticity over northern part of the eastern Cuban coast at cruising altitude, lol.