WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Notes from the 12z suite:

12z GFS is weaker but strengthens this as it nears Kauai. Super close call with Kauai. Probably 975mb at closest approach.

12z Euro still safely misses Hawaii but this time it's showing a trough thus recurves it compared to 00z Euro. Also stronger as it rccurves.

It's interesting and I can't believe it's happening, but the Euro is flip flopping a lot more than the GFS.

The 12z HWRF and GFDL are probably not reliable in track, but they also shifted much east compared to their respective 06z and 00z runs.

I kinda buy the 12z ECMWF more than the 0z. Also worth noting that the models at least in the short-term also overdid the strength of the system (maybe since convection was pulsating, it messed up the latent heat release) as yesterday they anticipated an intensifying tropical storm, which this storm clearly is not and IMO this looks barely a TC.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 212050
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

THE INITIAL VISIBLE SECTOR IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CENTER EAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
INDICATES KILO IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR
AND IS HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING FULLY ORGANIZED. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD
HIGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM
JTWC. THE CIRA/RAMMB MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATED 35 KT IN KILO/S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS HELD AT 35
KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER...ABOVE 29C IN
THE LATEST ANALYSIS...AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM
RAMMB-CIRA INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
EASTERLY SHEAR...JUST UNDER 10 KT IN THE 1800 UTC CIMSS
ESTIMATE...IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND THEN
REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM WILL STRENGTHEN...AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS AGREE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

KILO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 285/14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
BUILD WESTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO PROJECT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AT ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW A SHARPER TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE
OUTLIER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE WEAKER AND MOVES IT MUCH FARTHER WEST
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN FAR SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGED
WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND HWRF. THE FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN BEFORE AFTER DAY 3 WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS BUT TAKES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKER AND
MORE WESTWARD ECMWF SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF KILO...BUT THE NOD FOR NOW IS
CONSERVATIVELY BEING GIVEN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. GIVEN THIS FORECAST TRACK...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J WILL BEGIN FLIGHTS INTO KILO
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED
IN THE ATLANTIC...THE WC-130J IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF KILO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.0N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.5N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 161.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 163.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 18.0N 163.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.0N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Alyono]

significant west shift in 18Z MU. Going toward EC solution

[Kingarabian]

significant west shift in 18Z MU. Going toward EC solution

It's basically showing what it showed in yesterdays runs again.

[Yellow Evan]

significant west shift in 18Z MU. Going toward EC solution

Not by much. Just a hair left of the 6z.

[Yellow Evan]

12z UKMET a little more west and weaker.

[Kingarabian]

Thinking that synoptic mission will remove all question in storm track. We'll find out tomorrow who is right.

[srainhoutx]

I just completed a sobering and somber visit to the USS Arizona Memorial. Keep an eye on convection developing closer (W side) of the broad low level circulation center. The Western most convective complex looks to have moistened up the atmosphere ahead of Kido. Shear appears to be decreasing as Kilo begins to move S of the Big Island.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like Kilo was downgraded to Tropical Depression?

[Yellow Evan]

CP, 03, 2015082200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1543W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 210, 60, 40, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, KILO, M,

[JonathanBelles]

New Post for Kilo (at the end of this post) and the rest of the tropics:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/21/tr ... ters-busy/

[Alyono]

the circulation has become much better defined.

However, the convection continues to be stripped away. The issue appears to be mid level shear, not upper level shear

[Yellow Evan]

the circulation has become much better defined.

However, the convection continues to be stripped away. The issue appears to be mid level shear, not upper level shear

I noticed the mid-level shear earlier, but never posted about it. Seems to be an issue for a lot of these storms.

[Kingarabian]

WTPA41 PHFO 220245
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF
KILO HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. AN EXPOSED...ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECTED BY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ONLY 8 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST SO IT IS SURPRISING THAT
KILO/S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ARRESTED. TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE ALSO WARMED AND DECREASED IN SIZE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO...HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...
30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION...KILO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE DETERIORATING CONDITION OF KILO MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A
CHALLENGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...ABOVE 29C...AND
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM RAMMB-CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES TO
THE WEST. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
48 TO 60 HOURS. THE MAIN INTENSITY OBJECTIVE AIDS POINT TOWARD
FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH KILO STILL BECOMING A HURRICANE. HWRF IS
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH HURRICANE INTENSITY ACHIEVED AT 60 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE BUT STILL SHOWS KILO BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS. THIS
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ALL OF THIS MAY BE IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS NOT ABLE TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR IT/S CENTER. IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT FAILS TO OCCUR...THEN KILO WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. WHILE SURPRISING...IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. KILO IS
MOVING AT 285/12 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD TO KEEP KILO ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN POINTED TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND LIES EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF...BUT A BIT WEST OF HWRF AND GFDL.

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J TOOK OFF AT ABOUT 22/0100 UTC AND
WAS ENROUTE TO KILO. THE DATA FROM THIS MISSION SHOULD PROVIDE
CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO IT/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. SUBSEQUENT
FLIGHTS WILL TAKE PLACE AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC...A WC-130J IS ALSO
SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING
IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.4N 154.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.0N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.0N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 162.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.7N 163.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.5N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.5N 161.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Kingarabian]

CPHC putting a decent amount of weight on the HWRF and GFDL with their track:

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting that usually with EPAC storms once they get to around 55 knts and get a nice inner core, the guidance often shifts east. The overall steering mechanism hear does favor a NE or ENE turn, the question will be will when does it feel the weakness and at what strength. Right now, I think this will stay west of Kaui and near French Frigate Shoals.

[Alyono]

this needs to reach about 166W for Hawaii to be safe. A turn east of 165W is bad. East of 163 brings Oahu into play

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS so far is weaker through 48 hours but more N.

GFS is weaker through 60 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS so far is weaker through 48 hours but more N.

Think more N could be good here since it means the storm likely passes E of Hawaii since this is gonna have to re-curve to the NE to reach it.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS so far is weaker through 48 hours but more N.

Think more N could be good here since it means the storm likely passes E of Hawaii since this is gonna have to re-curve to the NE to reach it.

Yeah but now it's inline with 18z. And Recon just found 1004mb which means the initializing of 1006 mb is off.