EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, the GFS forecast seems reasonable.

[cycloneye]

The intensification trend has stopped for now as it remains at 120kts on 00z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2015060400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1047W, 120, 943, HU

[Kingarabian]

The intensification trend has stopped for now as it remains at 120kts on 00z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2015060400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1047W, 120, 943, HU

I would've dropped to 110-115kts.

[Kingarabian]

If recon catches Blanca as a Cat.5 storm then I think that will be the first time in a really long time.

[Yellow Evan]

The intensification trend has stopped for now as it remains at 120kts on 00z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2015060400, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1047W, 120, 943, HU

I would've dropped to 110-115kts.

Id go 115.

[Yellow Evan]

If recon catches Blanca as a Cat.5 storm then I think that will be the first time in a really long time.

Last recon Cat 5 was Kenna.

[cycloneye]

If recon catches Blanca as a Cat.5 storm then I think that will be the first time in a really long time.

But it wont be until Friday when the plane goes so that opportunity has been lost.

[Yellow Evan]

If recon catches Blanca as a Cat.5 storm then I think that will be the first time in a really long time.

But it wont be until Friday when the plane goes so that opportunity has been lost.

The storm should be peaking then.

[Kingarabian]

If recon catches Blanca as a Cat.5 storm then I think that will be the first time in a really long time.

Last recon Cat 5 was Kenna.

How about including the Atlantic? First since 2005?

But it wont be until Friday when the plane goes so that opportunity has been lost.

Depends how soon it peaks tomorrow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If I were to make a forecast, it would be for Blanca to weaken down to 100-105kt tonight as it remains stationary over cooler waters, steadily reorganizing to a Category 4 again late tomorrow, and finally peaking as an upper-end Category 4 or Category 5 cyclone tomorrow night or Friday morning.

[Yellow Evan]

Dean and Felix 07 had Recon.

[cycloneye]

Wow,is really bigtime upwelling.

[Yellow Evan]

Eric Blake said the HWRF is overdoing it.

[SouthDadeFish]

That looks like a bug. There is no way SSTs are below 15 C.... Cooler than 30C yes, but not 15... lol.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: That looks like a bug. There is no way SSTs are below 15 C.... Cooler than 30C yes, but not 15... lol.

Yeah,HWRF has not been so good lately.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

tremendous storm none the less but looks likely this one was just another to add to the growing list of over top very bullish unrealistic phd pro met twitter forecasts.

How was it unrealistic? It's not even finished. And what list are you talking about?

From the get go it was pointed out on this thread the model lift value did not appear to match what would be required for a high end cat5 even without up welling the GFS 913 mb looked bullish the 155 knts ships forecast was -removed- you often see 140-160 ships intensity on most systems.

Quite a few systems have been overstated in forecast intensity by R M like his models but not the bullish forecast.


Cat4

Seeing as though both the hurricane and global models show Blanca peaking on Friday, it's probably a little premature to be calling people out.

[Yellow Evan]

From the get go it was pointed out on this thread the model lift value did not appear to match what would be required for a high end cat5 even without up welling the GFS 913 mb looked bullish the 155 knts ships forecast was -removed- you often see 140-160 ships intensity on most systems.

Quite a few systems have been overstated in forecast intensity by R M like his models but not the bullish forecast.


Cat4

Cat 4 isn't terribly inaccurate. And the storm isn't finished yet, so it could still become a Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: That looks like a bug. There is no way SSTs are below 15 C.... Cooler than 30C yes, but not 15... lol.

Water trapped under the warm nino layer can be almost frozen.

Hardly. Thermocline isn't that strong in the tropics.

Unless you are talking about the water in the aphotic zone.

[Cyclenall]

Translation: assuming the cycle continues, Blanca's core convection should begin increasing this evening and throughout the overnight hours.

Convection is continuing to fade and "collapse".

On the positive side, the cloud tops are stabilizing.

Both when this was posted and now, cloud tops are warming steadily and the eye is really ugly.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago

More GFS model stuff for #Blanca-- 909 mb 6h before recon is scheduled to be in there- save for in situ verification

NHC could be too early with the peak here as well.

A NHC staff member uses the term "model stuff" . At the end of the day, they're just like us. I just wish Eric would have asked someone why recon wasn't planned on Monday as it is a threat to landmass (not to mention unique). I liked the tweet until I got to the "save for in situ verification" part. There are Invests that come up in the Atlantic that are further away from affecting landmass than Blanca is poised to, so that's not it. Experts don't expect much from the Atlantic so there is recon time and funds to spare for major storms in the Epac so no reason at all for later plans.

If I were to make a forecast, it would be for Blanca to weaken down to 100-105kt tonight as it remains stationary over cooler waters, steadily reorganizing to a Category 4 again late tomorrow, and finally peaking as an upper-end Category 4 or Category 5 cyclone tomorrow night or Friday morning.

Bingo.

you often see 140-160 ships intensity on most systems.

I haven't.

[Yellow Evan]

Seeing as though both the hurricane and global models show Blanca peaking on Friday, it's probably a little premature to be calling people out.

Ok kiddo

Cat 4 isn't terribly inaccurate. And the storm isn't finished yet, so it could still become a Cat 5.

Cat 4's are awesome yeah but reality is 02E BLANCA 150604 0000 12.1N 104.7W EPAC 120 943 is not even close to 913mb and the 155 knts plenty more systems will come around in your basin this season and maybe a 160 knt system.

Not every run had it at 913mbar at this time frame. Most had it in the 920s-930s. 943 isn't terribly far off.

For June, we could be doing a lot worse.

And as I said, it hasn't peaked yet.