ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030215
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 41 20151003
020630 2306N 07326W 6964 03067 9971 +105 +105 236062 066 041 038 00
020700 2306N 07324W 6956 03078 9956 +106 +106 245057 061 042 017 00
020730 2306N 07321W 6960 03072 9939 +108 +108 245061 066 037 007 00
020800 2306N 07319W 6951 03082 9939 +101 //// 248064 066 037 005 01
020830 2306N 07316W 6963 03065 9942 +100 //// 247063 067 038 008 01
020900 2306N 07314W 6963 03066 9958 +102 +102 241063 065 039 008 00
020930 2307N 07312W 6970 03060 9976 +098 +098 233065 067 035 014 00
021000 2307N 07309W 6958 03076 9974 +097 +097 227063 067 038 009 00
021030 2307N 07307W 6960 03075 9961 +097 //// 232059 061 038 006 01
021100 2307N 07305W 6962 03073 9952 +094 //// 234059 060 039 005 01
021130 2307N 07302W 6962 03076 9951 +096 +091 232059 060 037 006 00
021200 2307N 07300W 6959 03079 9947 +100 +089 231060 060 039 003 00
021230 2307N 07258W 6961 03079 9950 +098 +087 230061 061 038 004 00
021300 2307N 07255W 6958 03083 9949 +100 +085 234062 062 039 003 00
021330 2307N 07253W 6963 03079 9955 +095 +093 233062 062 037 002 01
021400 2307N 07251W 6963 03082 9954 +099 +088 234062 063 036 002 00
021430 2307N 07248W 6961 03086 9955 +100 +086 234062 063 037 001 00
021500 2308N 07246W 6963 03086 9954 +100 +085 232059 061 039 002 03
021530 2308N 07244W 6959 03087 9956 +100 +090 231057 059 037 002 03
021600 2309N 07242W 6952 03097 9955 +100 +086 227052 055 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

JSL overlay.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

I don't think that's why.

That's exactly why. It happens with every storm.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030225
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 42 20151003
021630 2310N 07242W 6962 03087 9958 +099 +089 230051 051 038 002 00
021700 2312N 07243W 6962 03086 9955 +100 +087 231053 055 040 002 00
021730 2313N 07245W 6961 03086 9955 +098 +088 231055 056 040 001 00
021800 2314N 07246W 6959 03084 9955 +093 +091 230056 056 040 001 01
021830 2315N 07247W 6962 03078 9948 +100 +090 231055 056 040 002 00
021900 2316N 07248W 6962 03075 9948 +096 +089 231056 057 040 002 00
021930 2318N 07250W 6959 03077 9941 +101 +085 233055 056 040 004 00
022000 2319N 07251W 6962 03071 9953 +096 +094 234052 054 040 004 00
022030 2320N 07252W 6959 03071 9962 +094 +094 229052 053 040 007 00
022100 2321N 07254W 6963 03066 9957 +094 //// 225057 060 041 006 01
022130 2322N 07255W 6959 03071 9949 +097 //// 225061 063 040 006 01
022200 2324N 07256W 6960 03071 9976 +094 +094 234065 066 036 017 00
022230 2325N 07257W 6955 03073 9957 +099 +099 235064 067 041 014 00
022300 2326N 07259W 6963 03065 9944 +098 //// 236062 063 043 010 05
022330 2327N 07300W 6961 03066 9942 +095 //// 237060 062 038 006 01
022400 2328N 07301W 6965 03058 9941 +096 +094 235064 068 041 008 00
022430 2329N 07302W 6965 03056 9944 +098 +098 235067 068 042 009 03
022500 2330N 07303W 6963 03058 9949 +093 +093 239066 069 043 008 00
022530 2332N 07305W 6957 03061 9946 +094 +094 237061 066 042 008 00
022600 2332N 07305W 6957 03061 9950 +097 +097 236066 070 043 017 00
$$
;

[WPBWeather]

marked drop in the interest level on this board as this system is no longer is a U.S. threat. What a difference 36 hours makes.

I don't think that's why.

That's exactly why. It happens with every storm.

Some hours ago someone posted something along the same lines: wish casters, disaster mongers, worried well, whatever, will tend to congregate in online forums here and elsewhere and clutter the threads. However, Storm2K is a unique and valuable service. I am glad I found it in 2005 and hope it continues to thrive.

[cfltrib]

So far this season, traditional hurricane spawning grounds have been too hostile to allow sustained developement. Somehow, conditions came together in the only spot possible for a storm of Joaquim's magnitude. He remained "nestled" in that spot for an unprecedented 3 days. Tragic for the east central Bahamas, the only place where shallow waters could hold their warmth long enough to feed the storm without cooling like deeper waters would in that time frame. This is definitely one for the books.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through HDOB 43:

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030235
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 43 20151003
022630 2334N 07307W 6956 03059 9949 +099 +099 232071 074 047 024 03
022700 2335N 07308W 6954 03058 9953 +102 +102 235064 068 043 028 00
022730 2336N 07310W 6972 03036 9952 +091 +091 244062 063 050 019 00
022800 2337N 07311W 6958 03052 9927 +098 +098 238062 065 048 016 03
022830 2338N 07312W 6977 03028 9934 +096 +096 240060 067 044 012 00
022900 2339N 07313W 6961 03046 9922 +094 +091 237063 065 044 011 00
022930 2341N 07314W 6965 03039 9929 +093 +093 234065 067 044 014 00
023000 2342N 07316W 6957 03046 9926 +090 +090 232065 066 044 006 03
023030 2343N 07317W 6961 03038 9921 +090 +088 232068 069 044 006 00
023100 2344N 07318W 6961 03033 9919 +093 //// 232070 072 042 005 01
023130 2345N 07319W 6962 03032 9914 +095 +095 232066 071 042 005 00
023200 2346N 07321W 6955 03037 9910 +097 +097 227063 066 044 007 00
023230 2348N 07322W 6967 03019 9914 +100 +100 230067 073 043 011 03
023300 2349N 07323W 6972 03013 9910 +097 +097 229071 073 047 016 03
023330 2350N 07324W 6957 03026 9890 +103 +101 234069 072 048 008 00
023400 2351N 07326W 6959 03018 9878 +099 +088 235071 072 049 004 00
023430 2352N 07327W 6963 03010 9878 +096 +090 237073 073 049 001 00
023500 2353N 07328W 6961 03009 9878 +096 +093 238076 080 050 006 00
023530 2354N 07329W 6957 03009 9871 +099 +096 241078 081 050 006 00
023600 2355N 07330W 6963 02996 9858 +099 +090 240080 081 055 005 00
$$
;

[windnrain]

Truly is amazing how far south that high pressure system is moving.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030245
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 44 20151003
023630 2356N 07331W 6962 02991 9854 +099 +094 234081 083 056 004 00
023700 2358N 07333W 6961 02986 9855 +097 +095 233081 084 054 007 03
023730 2359N 07334W 6967 02975 9858 +089 //// 233080 084 054 005 01
023800 2400N 07335W 6963 02971 9842 +100 //// 236083 085 057 005 01
023830 2401N 07336W 6962 02967 9835 +098 //// 237084 086 062 007 01
023900 2402N 07337W 6961 02958 9831 +099 +099 237089 092 062 007 00
023930 2403N 07338W 6961 02952 9822 +103 +103 238095 095 064 008 00
024000 2404N 07339W 6962 02943 9814 +101 +101 243102 105 066 008 00
024030 2405N 07340W 6958 02936 9779 +107 +107 243102 106 067 007 00
024100 2406N 07341W 6958 02926 9770 +107 +107 240099 103 068 007 00
024130 2407N 07343W 6967 02906 9765 +110 +110 241100 102 071 010 00
024200 2408N 07344W 6961 02906 9764 +106 +106 242109 112 072 012 00
024230 2409N 07345W 6956 02895 9752 +094 +094 241111 113 071 026 03
024300 2409N 07346W 6988 02847 9747 +098 +098 238112 114 071 029 03
024330 2410N 07346W 6966 02862 9736 +104 +104 233110 113 075 054 03
024400 2411N 07348W 6953 02864 9716 +116 +116 237112 116 087 042 00
024430 2412N 07349W 6963 02817 9677 +121 +121 236114 120 095 056 00
024500 2413N 07350W 6960 02802 9658 +123 +123 239120 126 101 061 00
024530 2414N 07351W 6945 02799 9620 +127 +127 242128 130 105 058 03
024600 2415N 07351W 6961 02756 9593 +131 +131 243124 128 106 060 00
$$
;

130 kt FL (supports 117 kt at the surface), 106 kt SFMR (rain inflated?).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

130 kt winds at flight level are the highest yet. I would argue for a 120 kt intensity combined with earlier SFMR readings.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030255
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 45 20151003
024630 2416N 07352W 6956 02744 9566 +136 +136 245099 118 105 063 00
024700 2417N 07353W 6970 02704 9538 +140 +140 246080 089 107 051 00
024730 2418N 07355W 6963 02698 9515 +144 +144 246062 072 090 036 03
024800 2419N 07356W 6962 02693 9473 +151 //// 242052 060 090 018 05
024830 2420N 07357W 6952 02696 9447 +159 +149 240039 049 049 003 00
024900 2422N 07358W 6957 02679 9432 +168 +137 240025 035 036 002 03
024930 2423N 07359W 6972 02655 9432 +160 +138 235020 023 032 002 00
025000 2424N 07401W 6956 02666 9421 +164 +133 243011 020 027 002 00
025030 2425N 07402W 6971 02645 9428 +152 +139 263008 009 024 003 00
025100 2427N 07403W 6957 02662 9416 +165 +132 345004 007 020 002 00
025130 2427N 07403W 6957 02662 9416 +172 +128 027009 013 018 002 03
025200 2429N 07406W 6969 02659 9429 +163 +132 010019 025 025 001 03
025230 2430N 07408W 6951 02686 9415 +187 +123 034040 047 063 003 00
025300 2431N 07409W 6964 02692 9442 +185 +123 028055 060 070 002 00
025330 2432N 07410W 6965 02715 9455 +196 +103 039076 082 079 002 00
025400 2433N 07411W 6951 02768 9490 +202 +080 039086 089 082 001 00
025430 2434N 07413W 6950 02801 9534 +191 +082 033080 090 080 002 00
025500 2436N 07414W 6975 02790 9555 +193 +075 026072 075 074 001 00
025530 2437N 07415W 6961 02824 9575 +189 +082 025073 077 070 002 00
025600 2438N 07416W 6957 02844 9603 +175 +089 021077 078 069 002 00
$$
;

Pressure steady at 942mb.

[Hammy]

130 kt winds at flight level are the highest yet. I would argue for a 120 kt intensity combined with earlier SFMR readings.

Pressure seems to be down as well, 942 on the last pass by the looks of it.

[CrazyC83]

130 kt winds at flight level are the highest yet. I would argue for a 120 kt intensity combined with earlier SFMR readings.

Pressure seems to be down as well, 942 on the last pass by the looks of it.

It has been holding in the low 940s for the most part the last 12 hours or so.

[Ken Lucas]

11:00 PM NHC Advisory.

Joaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flowbetween a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough swings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The multi-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently the NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the NHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NHC discussion:

"Fixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the
core of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the
central Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which
suggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern
eyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds
were measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt."

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030305
AF305 1211A JOAQUIN HDOB 46 20151003
025630 2439N 07417W 6953 02862 9630 +165 +087 021076 078 065 003 00
025700 2440N 07418W 6963 02866 9660 +148 +105 019077 078 061 002 00
025730 2441N 07419W 6952 02888 9676 +142 +102 017078 079 059 003 00
025800 2442N 07420W 6966 02883 9691 +142 +087 016080 082 060 002 00
025830 2443N 07421W 6965 02894 9695 +150 +070 015081 082 059 002 00
025900 2444N 07423W 6961 02907 9705 +150 +068 018080 081 059 002 00
025930 2445N 07424W 6965 02911 9719 +146 +069 016077 078 058 003 00
030000 2446N 07425W 6963 02922 9733 +141 +071 017073 076 058 004 00
030030 2447N 07426W 6960 02934 9745 +137 +072 018070 072 057 004 00
030100 2448N 07427W 6966 02934 9755 +135 +075 016067 069 055 003 00
030130 2449N 07428W 6957 02951 9771 +127 +078 016063 064 053 003 00
030200 2450N 07429W 6963 02950 9780 +124 +085 016060 062 052 003 00
030230 2451N 07430W 6961 02958 //// +116 //// 014057 060 051 003 01
030300 2452N 07431W 6962 02964 9800 +115 +113 017056 057 050 002 01
030330 2453N 07433W 6961 02970 9802 +119 +109 019055 056 050 001 00
030400 2454N 07434W 6962 02974 9802 +126 +097 021054 055 050 002 00
030430 2455N 07435W 6962 02980 9807 +128 +096 024052 054 050 003 00
030500 2456N 07436W 6963 02985 9817 +123 +104 019054 055 046 003 00
030530 2457N 07437W 6960 02993 9825 +120 +106 020054 056 047 002 00
030600 2458N 07439W 6961 02997 9832 +116 +106 019052 053 047 002 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 030310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 03/02:50:50Z
B. 24 deg 26 min N
074 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2609 m
D. 107 kt
E. 136 deg 13 nm
F. 241 deg 130 kt
G. 135 deg 17 nm
H. EXTRAP 944 mb
I. 13 C / 3051 m
J. 18 C / 3056 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1211A JOAQUIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 135 / 17 NM 02:45:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 309 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;