ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

7pm

Looks like that graphic malfunctioned. Should be 72.0W

Advisory text is missing the W after the longitude, that'll break automated systems.

[tropicwatch]

Thought something looked funny.

[ozonepete]

I was not aware there was a time without tropical storm warnings.

Yeah. They started them in 1987 to replace Gale Warnings.

[Evil Jeremy]

7pm

Those coordinates are from 11am. They dun goofed.

[jinftl]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 72.0
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[ozonepete]

Quick update from Providenciales as night falls. With each new forecast this is routed further away from us.
The winds have been picking up continuously throughout the day. I live on a hill on the south shore. Although not a meteriologist I work in a field that constantly refers to weather reports and forecasts. I estimate the steady winds to be 20kts with gusts to 30 occasionally higher in squalls. Only a few short but fast moving rain showers so far.
Had thought we might even miss most of the rain but looking at some of the convection images it won't take much of a move nw to soak us.
In any case our preparations are complete so we'll see what the night brings.

Where is Providenciales? And is your name "seat rump" or "sea trump"?

[AdamFirst]

Where is Providenciales?

Turks and Caicos

[Chris_in_Tampa]

(image removed)
7pm

Those coordinates are from 11am. They dun goofed.

The NHC has 18.3N 72.0 for the 8pm. The missing W may have thrown their code off.

[Sanibel]

Not a Dvorak you would want to see taking form with nothing but water between you and it.

[ozonepete]

Thanks! I just looked it up on Google maps but ya beat me to it.

[tailgater]

Plenty of fuel on both sides of Cuba if something does start cranking up

[ronjon]

Haha..looks like the cyclone is organizing over Hispanola. Convection looking more symmetrical. This is one large mass of weather. Not sure she's not gonna cause trouble down the road in Florida regardless if it ever gets more organized with all the heavy rain.

[wxman57]

This has piqued my interest. The thinking process that goes behind this switch in focus. Is there a way to cut bait, so to speak, with the "center" and follow the convection? When do you know when to do so? Is it purely skill and tracking experience? Or are there tell tale signs to change the focus of what your looking at?

Just use the satellite imagery to follow where the mass of the convection is tracking. That's most likely what the models are predicting, as far as the movement.

[Aric Dunn]

Any center reformation will likely occur north of DR as it all moves wnw where the majority of the wave axis is. if convection starts to build then we might have a shot otherwise not likely going to see anything from this.

[CrazyC83]

Valid point Steve. I like a 50 knot level as that's a real storm (same wind criteria for severe t-storm warning). and it would help us confine naming to more meaningful storms. for storms with gales less than 50 knots I would love to see a "deep depression" designation with gale warnings used for landfall. I am old enough to remember when there were no tropical storm warnings. there were hurricane warnings or gale warnings. it's just something I've long contemplated but it's probably never workable...sorry for the OT rant.

I was not aware there was a time without tropical storm warnings.

I think about storms like Allison that never got that strong but did massive damage. We need to get to the end of Erica before we determine if this was really a false alarm or not, IMO. If a lot of rain falls as this system gets trapped, if it gets trapped, the advance warning might be worth it.

A severe thunderstorm warning or high wind warning is 50 knot GUSTS, not sustained winds. That generally equates to about 35 knot sustained winds, or the TD/TS boundary.

That said, not everyone sees the maximum winds in a tropical storm or hurricane.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Cone has been corrected and appears again.

[ROCK]

So they went with the southern LLC...nice...just want to point out its moving at 21MPH.. That low level is caught up in the easterlies. IMO this might further up the coast around MS or AL..

[sunnyday]

Does anyone else feel sort of scared at how terrible these predictions have been? All of a sudden several days in, the "storm" heads to the west coast and maybe Gulf of Mexico. Why wasn't this discussed as a distinct possibility all the time we were being told the "storm" would be on the east coast or very close to it?
People depend on this info for safety. What happened?

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it is either going to go right over the SW peninsula of Haiti (very mountainous!) or just north and back over water quickly.

[Weatherboy1]

Look at that convection blowing up now ... Not sure how Erika is accomplishing this over Hispanola but honestly? NOTHING about this crazy storm surprises me at this point. Lol.