ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

98L continues westward...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2345 UTC 14.3N 46.2W T2.0/2.0 98L
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 45.0W T2.0/2.0 98L
24/1145 UTC 13.4N 42.0W T1.5/1.5 98L
24/0545 UTC 13.5N 40.6W T1.5/1.5 98L
23/2345 UTC 13.6N 39.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[ronjon]

The 20mph forward speed is holding back the west wind getting established. Danny was moving much slower so closing off the circulation was easy for Danny. Several years ago a disturbance with strong mid level circulation moved through the islands quickly like 98L. You could have sworn it was a TC. The HH could not find the west wind till it moved into the Caribbean. Same thing could happen here.

Great observation MGC. You know your stuff. Had similar thoughts and remembered the investigation you mentioned.

[ronjon]

my opinion is that I don't really know what the NHC is waiting for. We have sustained convection, good rotation with evidence of an LLC, and a system moving 20mph with potential impacts to the Leewards in just a few days. Can we not pull the trigger and start putting up some advisories?!?

Gator it's one word...RECON!

[NCSTORMMAN]

You can see part of the CoC east of the big blow up of convection. By east I mean very close to the convection. Watch there and the spin looks to be becoming naked.

[Hammy]

my opinion is that I don't really know what the NHC is waiting for. We have sustained convection, good rotation with evidence of an LLC, and a system moving 20mph with potential impacts to the Leewards in just a few days. Can we not pull the trigger and start putting up some advisories?!?

Gator it's one word...RECON!

Probably a short enough time before the recon that they'll likely wait at this point, there's still a good chance this doesn't fully close off before 60W.

[Syx6sic]

at 41041 as of
(7:50 pm EDT)
2350 GMT on 08/24/2015:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 11.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.6 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 91 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 78.6 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

ssw winds now

[AutoPenalti]

You can see part of the CoC east of the big blow up of convection. By east I mean very close to the convection. Watch there and the spin looks to be becoming naked.

I don't see it, show the imagery.

[NCSTORMMAN]

You can see part of the CoC east of the big blow up of convection. By east I mean very close to the convection. Watch there and the spin looks to be becoming naked.

I don't see it, show the imagery.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Look to the right of the convection blow up. You can see the rotation there instead of underneath the heavy convection.

[floridasun78]

we in miami been lucky not seen Andrew type storm alot years i was speaking wife i told her our lucky will never last for ever Wilma was was not thing like andrew

[ronjon]

NC, looks like the system is experiencing some northerly shear based on that SAT presentation.

[cycloneye]

Impressive data that bouy 41041 has provided.

https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... e=55DE31E8

[NCSTORMMAN]

NC, looks like the system is experiencing some northerly shear based on that SAT presentation.

So, am I right in saying that the CoC is there instead of under the convection?

[floridasun78]

look like same shear affect Danny starting affect 98l a bit

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 242355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A 1003 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 14N45W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
44W-48W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 13N48W TO 14N52W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W 20-25 KT.

[floridasun78]

do you see 11pm avd for Erika or tue at 5am i notice nhc like issue watch at 5am

[northjaxpro]

Estimated pressure now down to 1003 mb. Well, once NHC can get the evidence of a west wind to close off the surface circulation, I have to imagine they upgrade this immediately to TS status given that estimated pressure. It is possible the pressure could be lower, but won't know that until Recon gets in there.

[Hammy]

do you see 11pm avd for Erika or tue at 5am i notice nhc like issue watch at 5am

ASCAT-B looks like it should go directly over the storm, timing is everything though, it'll likely get upgraded tonight if it's closed and they get the data in time.

[deltadog03]

Some small ideas, thoughts on this.

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

You can like my FB page and follow me on twitter. I will follow back as well. Have a great night everyone.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Danny continues to book west, but it seems the model guidance consensus is for it to be heading WNW by now. I wonder if we will see some west shifts with the models to account for the more west movement?

[cycloneye]

Hopefully we will have an ASCAT pass before 11 PM.