EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #261 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:20 pm

The eye is cooling for now. I'm not sure what could be hindering it. We'll have to see how it changes throughout the evening.

#262 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:22 pm

On the positive side, the cloud tops are stabilizing.

1900hurricane · #263 Postby **1900hurricane** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:28 pm

Kingarabian wrote:ERC done?

If one was indeed occurring, it should be about complete now. Per the microwave pass TA13 posted above, the eye diameter has increased from earlier and the brightness gradient between the eye and eyewall has tightened up as well. The old eyewall would be collapsing into the new eye now. Hard to tell that is actually is what has occurred though given the available data.

#264 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:29 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:ERC done?

If one was indeed occurring, it should be about complete now. Per the microwave pass TA13 posted above, the eye diameter has increased from earlier and the brightness gradient between the eye and eyewall has tightened up as well. The old eyewall would be collapsing into the new eye now. Hard to tell that is actually is what has occurred though given the available data.

If that's the case, we should see some intensification tonight.

#265 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:43 pm

It would be fascinating to see it strengthen during D-max.

#266 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:11 pm

Regarding the diurnal cycle, here is a paper discussing it. I've seen presentations on this and it is observed in many cyclones:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... 13-00191.1

That may be partially what's going on here. Also, as long as the cloud tops continue to warm, I grow increasingly intrigued in the idea of upwelling. A large convective burst in the night hours while the cyclone is in the same spot would disprove that idea.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #267 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:42 pm

#268 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:43 pm

#269 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:45 pm

Clear tops still slowly warming. Probs 110-120 knts.

#270 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:46 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Regarding the diurnal cycle, here is a paper discussing it. I've seen presentations on this and it is observed in many cyclones:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... 13-00191.1

That may be partially what's going on here. Also, as long as the cloud tops continue to warm, I grow increasingly intrigued in the idea of upwelling. A large convective burst in the night hours while the cyclone is in the same spot would disprove that idea.

If it weren't for hurricane Andres (as well as Blanca throughout last night) intensifying through D-max, then upwelling would be the only realistic explanation.

#271 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:48 pm

Regarding upwelling:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 2h2 hours ago

Would bet upwelling is indeed affecting #Blanca. Even if deep water is still warm, latent & sensible heat transfer can cool surface a lot.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago

@TropicalTidbits I suspect it is having an influence

#272 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:55 pm

2 days parked on the same place is not so good for a TC even if is in deep waters.

#273 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 6:58 pm

Well, it seems to be drifting WSW now.

TheStormExpert · #274 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:04 pm

It better get moving if it still wants possibly become a Cat.5! Otherwise, odds are shrinking fast!

#275 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: It better get moving if it still wants possibly become a Cat.5! Otherwise, odds are shrinking fast!

Longer it sits, longer time it'll take to reach cooler waters.

#276 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:10 pm

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 5m5 minutes ago

More GFS model stuff for #Blanca-- 909 mb 6h before recon is scheduled to be in there- save for in situ verification

NHC could be too early with the peak here as well.

1900hurricane · #277 Postby **1900hurricane** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:12 pm

Yep, firmly in the upwelling camp at this point.

#278 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:14 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 937.3mb/129.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -65.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

#279 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:16 pm

03/2345 UTC 12.1N 104.8W T5.5/6.0 BLANCA -- East Pacific

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #280 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 7:28 pm

Amid talk of Blanca flailing today, the 18z GFS comes in with its lowest pressure yet--907 millibars. It shows a constant pressure through tonight, beginning to fall again after 12z tomorrow. That seems reasonable to me.

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