ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

Northwest last frame, and satellite shows more NW

[T'Bonz]

Joaquin is already affecting the Carolinas. Look at all the moisture pumping there.

And we've already had days of rain before this. Today they added strong wind to the mix. We'll be lucky to keep our power.

So glad Joaquin is not paying a visit this weekend.

[LarryWx]

I don't like what I am seeing with the movement of the shower activity South of the Carolina's. Bending inwards toward the coast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

Indeed, but more importantly in my mind than this occurring is whether or not the reliable model consensus already agrees with those showers south of the Carolina's bending toward the coast. If I'm not mistaken, I think they did. If so, then those showers bending toward the coast would not be a concern to me.
The most important thing IMO is to make sure Joaquin, himself, doesn't start bodily moving NW today. When I say bodily, I don't include NW wobbles or very short distances to the NW.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AutoPenalti]

Should return to the N again in the next couple of hours correct?

[windnrain]

Is supposed to be goin northeast lol.

[tropicwatch]

I think the models might start trending more westward.

[caneman]

Northwest movement

It's an overall nnw motion though.

[windnrain]

Northwest movement

It's an overall nnw motion though.

Yup, certainly not a north or more importantly a northeast

[Bocadude85]

Joaquin better wobble northeast or Cat Island is going to take a direct hit.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like he is about to go west of 75W.

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane hunters are doing overtime, looks like they are going for one more center fix.

[windnrain]

I have zero faith in this thing going northeast soon. Looking at steering and WV I expect a lot of north and northwest movement.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[gatorcane]

Both the GFS and Euro take it well northeast of the United States now. Actually latest GFS looks like a Bermuda threat.
I wouldn't bet that those two models are wrong.

The United States escapes again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LarryWx]

Is supposed to be goin northeast lol.

The more reliable consensus (Euro and GFS at least) has it going N rather than NNE or NE through at least 18Z today. It is too early to be expecting anything east of north. The 0Z Euro actually looks like it may even have a slight west of due north movement from 12Z to 18Z today.

[RL3AO]

I have zero faith in this thing going northeast soon. Looking at steering and WV I expect a lot of north and northwest movement.

The trough (circled area) currently over Hudson Bay is going to get forced SE and push back the ridge (black arrow) that has been steering Joaquin opening up the N/NE path out to sea (red arrow).






Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

Both the GFS and Euro take it well northeast of the United States now. Actually latest GFS looks like a Bermuda threat.
I wouldn't bet that those two models are wrong.

The United States escapes again.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree that the most likely scenario is well East of the USA but these short term wobbles NW can mean the difference between a direct hit and just a glancing blow to the Bahamas. Cat Island looks next in line.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.streamingthe.net/ZNS-TV-13-N ... 28791/live This is live tv from Nassau they are on speaking about the storm live.