ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Microwave imagery this morning showing a really nice looking symmetrical eye. Still not the most amazingly healthy looking cat 4 I've seen but it's more organized than it was last night, aaaand also right over several islands which of course is not a good thing.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc15/ATL/11L.JOAQUIN/ssmi/composite/20151002.0805.f15.x.composite.11LJOAQUIN.115kts-935mb-230N-747W.77pc.jpg

Going back to the quote that this is the most intense non-tropical-wave-borne major hurricane in the Atlantic in the satellite era, some checking in the Atlantic record seems to confirm this is indeed the case. If we were to roll back the clock a few years to 1978, Ella was 120kt/956mb in Canadian waters, spawned from a cold front, but still not as intense.

However, I am unable to determine whether Lenny of 1999 (135kt/933mb) originated from a tropical wave or a non-tropical Caribbean low. Climatology of course would suggest tropical wave origin, but trying to actually confirm that. The NHC report does not specify.

[Blown Away]

Fortunately there are not many folks on those Bahamian islands, but being trapped in your home with a stalled hurricane overhead begins to wear you down after 24 hours... I know with Frances I was a wreck after being cooped up, because you still feel uneasy going outside when winds are blowing at minimal TS strength...

[tolakram]

Remember not to hotlink images unless you copy to an image hosting site first. Thanks!

[caneman]

Interesting read http://www.wunderground.com/news/hurric ... d-20140811

funny story about Charley, well not really funny, as I recall, we were under mandatory evacuations, I took my family to kissimme. We found ourselves dead in the middle of charley's track experiencing winds up to 105 miles per hour. Meanwhile, in Clearwater which was on the bsck side, clear blue skies and just a little bit windy. So, you cant just focus on a black line, single model, etc.. Anywho, back on topic.

[seahawkjd]

Schools here in Eastern NC just announced early dismissal due to the weather. Like JB said, if it weren't for the catastrophic hurricane, this nor-easter would be making a lot of news.

[psyclone]

Typical fairweather...er poorweather fans... [/quote]I know right. Glad it is going to Miss the United States. I said this before a couple of times, why??would anyone want a Major disaster like this would have caused?? I understand liking Weather and excitement but a Major Hurricane. Baffles me!!![/quote]

Isn't it only natural that a storm that threatens someone is going to generate greater interest? People that are not hard core weather nuts come here for info more specific than can be obtained at official outlets. The assumption that people want a major hurricane says more about you than those you're condemning... As if that is the only reason that readers/posters show up and then disappear.

[windnrain]

That ridge is sure taking its sweet time weakening.

[emeraldislenc]

Steady rain here this morning. It looks like we will get lots of rain today.

[emeraldislenc]

the 11 am advisory has it moving north at 3.

[emeraldislenc]

winds are 130 pressure 939

[CrazyC83]

We must still be vigilant. It is a very fluid atmosphere and small changes could make things very different. Bermuda and Atlantic Canada should definitely be prepared as well though.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

11am track. Some of the images have vortex messages from all the previous missions.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Earlier G-IV mission:

[caneman]

Well that is good new for the us so far.

[LarryWx]

Even the 12Z NAM trended closer to a missing the US track from the 0Z NAM. With the NAM being a horrible model for the tropics and with it being supported only by the unreliable CMC and the unreliable out of the tropics BAMs, I would easily go with the GFS/Euro well out to sea scenario until if/when those models shift much closer to the US and/or the current tracking looks to be significantly left of these two models. Even the Ukmet isn't close to a NC landfall if I'm not mistaken. By the way, even the 0Z CMC shifted a bit further NE in NC for landfall.
Regardless, let's see what the 12Z non-NAM consensus shows.
As long as Joaquin doesn't make any significant move to the NW the rest of today (which isn't yet happening), I'll probably continue to feel good about him missing the US absent a major GFS/Euro leftward shift.
In conclusion, I'm currently feeling real good about the high likelihood of him missing the US.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

will the front bringing all its rain, in addition to all the in-streaming hurricane moisture result in epic Floyd-like flooding for eastern North Carolina? I though it heard 20+ inches in some areas over the next day?! The eastern half of hte state will look like a big lake with that kind of moisture on top of an already saturated ground.

[tropicwatch]

I don't like what I am seeing with the movement of the shower activity South of the Carolina's. Bending inwards toward the coast.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-73&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[Sanibel]

Trying to become a donut (buzzsaw) but not quite able.



Long Island was in the eyewall all last night. San Salvador getting the hard side now.



San Salvador: Sustained 110mph ESE Gusts 144mph Not sure if instrument is broken because reading hasn't changed.



Eye directly over Rum Cay.

[windnrain]

Northwest movement

[windnrain]

and it's gone futher NW since that fix