ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Lets hope Erika dissipates over Hispaniola. It does look rather pathetic this afternoon......MGC

There isn't much of anything to dissipate. The circulation won't take a hit because there really isn't one. The squalls will likely move right across the DR & eastern Cuba without much effect on them. We'll still be tracking Erika as at least an area of squalls with possibly TS winds for a few more days.

[alienstorm]

Ok I have gone back and study the high visible loop and the center or ill define center is just east of Cape Romano which is the peninsular that sticks south. If you look carefully that is where the center has been going all day also it has slow down considerably and there is some intense hot towers going up right over it.

This is my best estimate of this mess at this time, if not than this is an open wave with the vigorous weather to the east side. We shall see what the NHC says at 5PM

[SFLcane]

Only real opportunity for some intensification is in the Bahamas. Gulf highly sheared environment

I don't think it's heading for the Bahamas, and even SE Florida may miss the rain. I need to head down to Miami Beach to take observations with that Weather Channel meteorologist, though.

This basin sucks. :0(

[wxman57]

Ok I have gone back and study the high visible loop and the center or ill define center is just east of Cape Romano which is the peninsular that sticks south. If you look carefully that is where the center has been going all day also it has slow down considerably and there is some intense hot towers going up right over it.

This is my best estimate of this mess at this time, if not than this is an open wave with the vigorous weather to the east side. We shall see what the NHC says at 5PM

I see a trof axis around there. Nothing more.

[Hammy]

How did all the models manage to get it so wrong with this?

[tolakram]

el nino, and a big one?

Erika stayed alive and had a lot of moisture associated with it. Very different from last year. Models might still be wrong, we have to wait to see if it reforms north and then let the models have at it. IMO.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The problem is it aint going north. Following the trade winds cause its dead. Only my opinion.

[emeraldislenc]

so will it still be a tropical storm at 5?

[AutoPenalti]

The problem is it aint going north. Following the trade winds cause its dead. Only my opinion.

It's not dead until every cloud disappears.

[emeraldislenc]

When will what is left of the storm move off the coast?

[jhpigott]

I know due to distance from the radar this feature probably is not at the surface, but sure looks to be some cyclonic turning going on in the Mona Passage

See Puerto Rico long range radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... a&loop=yes

[emeraldislenc]

I do see some evidence of that!

[AutoPenalti]

3 mins to next advisory.

[bahamaswx]

What a mess. Biggest forecasting bust for the Bahamas that I can remember since Debby (2000).

[Hammy]

What a mess. Biggest forecasting bust for the Bahamas that I can remember since Debby (2000).

I completely forgot about that one, and ironically wasn't it also forecast to hit S Florida as a decent intensity hurricane only to go south and weaken?

[AutoPenalti]

[wxman57]

How did all the models manage to get it so wrong with this?

Perhaps they were initialized with too strong of a vortex.

[AutoPenalti]

Notable speed is at 21mph, and you guessed it, moving West.

[Weatherboy1]

I like the latest NHC discussion - makes clear they are being generous to maintain this as a TS, and want to see what happens for next 12 hours or so with Erika. Also waiting to issue TS watches/warnings for FL in case nothing survives Hispanola. And on top of that, points out that, yeah, the whole "forecast turn to WNW/NW" thing from the models hasn't materialized for basically forever. LOL

[Dean4Storms]

Ok I have gone back and study the high visible loop and the center or ill define center is just east of Cape Romano which is the peninsular that sticks south. If you look carefully that is where the center has been going all day also it has slow down considerably and there is some intense hot towers going up right over it.

This is my best estimate of this mess at this time, if not than this is an open wave with the vigorous weather to the east side. We shall see what the NHC says at 5PM

I see it as well and you're right. It appears to be moving just North of due West. I'm sure that is where NHC places the center t 5pm.