ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020449
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 58 20151002
044030 2255N 07435W 6975 02576 9368 +154 +090 197020 025 016 000 03
044100 2256N 07437W 6964 02580 9359 +154 +095 175015 018 006 002 03
044130 2256N 07439W 6975 02564 9339 +171 +084 106003 013 005 002 00
044200 2256N 07441W 6963 02572 9345 +160 +088 012014 019 007 002 00
044230 2256N 07443W 6973 02569 9358 +153 +091 004024 027 008 002 03
044300 2257N 07444W 6970 02574 9360 +151 +091 018032 035 020 004 00
044330 2258N 07445W 6964 02589 9370 +150 +085 033043 045 031 004 03
044400 2300N 07445W 6965 02606 9392 +149 +082 038052 054 049 003 03
044430 2301N 07446W 6976 02614 9414 +147 +088 037061 063 056 003 03
044500 2302N 07447W 6967 02644 9430 +153 +077 042071 075 065 002 00
044530 2303N 07448W 6953 02684 9468 +139 +074 042083 088 071 002 00
044600 2305N 07450W 6977 02678 9495 +138 +078 043092 095 081 002 00
044630 2306N 07451W 6964 02724 9524 +138 +075 046095 096 092 002 03
044700 2307N 07452W 6958 02760 9559 +135 +080 044095 097 098 001 00
044730 2308N 07453W 6973 02771 9589 +133 +085 036100 103 093 003 00
044800 2309N 07455W 6967 02797 9613 +135 +072 027107 109 087 004 00
044830 2309N 07456W 6967 02814 9636 +130 +072 025108 110 088 003 00
044900 2310N 07457W 6971 02827 9680 +106 +086 026101 106 082 005 00
044930 2311N 07459W 6960 02862 9708 +097 +083 034096 100 080 007 03
045000 2312N 07501W 6981 02852 9736 +092 +081 037097 098 064 039 03
$$
;

Pressure 934mb.

[Hammy]

Winds still support 115kt and pressure appears to be down very slightly, and deep convection is back on the increase. I notice the outflow to the west, so this could have dual outflow channels established by tomorrow and may be starting to re-intensify already

[Sanibel]

Dunmore Settlement on Long Island is just getting grinded by a stationary category 3-4 eyewall.


And Crooked Island Lodge is still in the core.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JonathanBelles]

Plus it looks like the remnants of Ida looks weaker and it appears to be moving more east.

You may want to look at ASCAT. looks like a subtropical depression to me.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020459
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 59 20151002
045030 2313N 07502W 6957 02900 9756 +090 +079 033092 096 066 029 03
045100 2313N 07503W 6968 02905 9776 +091 +071 035091 092 068 014 03
045130 2314N 07505W 6961 02923 9779 +100 +071 033087 091 116 020 03
045200 2315N 07506W 6966 02919 9807 +090 +068 032082 084 123 018 03
045230 2316N 07507W 6976 02927 9808 +097 +062 034086 088 063 002 00
045300 2317N 07508W 6967 02948 9822 +093 +059 032083 086 061 004 00
045330 2319N 07509W 6979 02942 9839 +086 +070 031075 079 056 009 03
045400 2320N 07510W 6962 02966 9845 +087 +066 033072 074 055 006 03
045430 2321N 07510W 6981 02951 9848 +091 +069 035069 071 056 002 00
045500 2322N 07511W 6958 02985 9851 +094 +062 036069 071 053 002 00
045530 2324N 07512W 6975 02970 9870 +081 +061 038069 071 055 001 03
045600 2325N 07513W 6969 02983 9866 +091 +064 036070 071 045 002 00
045630 2326N 07514W 6964 02994 9887 +080 +054 034070 072 052 000 00
045700 2327N 07515W 6967 03000 9888 +085 +049 034071 072 045 003 03
045730 2328N 07516W 6961 03010 9887 +091 +051 039067 069 039 001 00
045800 2329N 07518W 6976 02999 9881 +103 +047 041064 066 039 001 00
045830 2330N 07519W 6958 03024 9890 +101 +046 038061 063 040 003 00
045900 2332N 07520W 6967 03026 9896 +100 +048 035062 065 039 004 03
045930 2333N 07521W 6969 03025 9892 +109 +036 034063 064 039 002 00
050000 2334N 07522W 6980 03014 9890 +116 +041 035061 063 039 003 03
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Long Island south of Dunmore Settlement by about 5 miles is just getting grinded by a stationary category 3-4 eyewall.


And Crooked Island Lodge is still in the core.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Man I feel bad for those folks, they must be wondering when in the world is this gonna end? Prayers go out to them and hopefully they are shored up in safe shelters.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 020503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 02/04:41:40Z
B. 22 deg 56 min N
074 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2534 m
D. 104 kt
E. 133 deg 17 nm
F. 236 deg 123 kt
G. 133 deg 24 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 8 C / 3044 m
J. 17 C / 3040 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C17
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 21
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 133 / 24 NM 04:33:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 132 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
;




Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 5:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 4:41:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°56'N 74°39'W (22.9333N 74.65W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,534m (8,314ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 123kts (From between the SW and WSW at ~ 141.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 123kts (~ 141.5mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 4:33:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center

[Cdavis]

I believe this storm will continue slowly westerly than forecast due to the at least obvious tilt in the trough. Due to the slight westward shift in the models I have a feeling we may still be in for an unrattling (at least) 24hr time period

[Chris_in_Tampa]

According to sonde, pressure was extrapolated. The sonde reached 934mb and from that level 936mb was extrapolated.

UZNT13 KNHC 020504
XXAA 52057 99229 70747 08024 99936 ///// ///// 00/// ///// /////
92102 26408 31003 85848 22809 33001 70530 16857 02505 88999 77999
31313 09608 80441
51515 10191
61616 AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 22
62626 CENTER LST WND 019 AEV 07775 WL150 31004 093 REL 2293N07467
W 044143 SPG 2293N07466W 044530 =
XXBB 52058 99229 70747 08024 00936 ///// 11934 27008 22850 22809
33758 18612 44715 18648 55697 16458
21212 00936 ///// 11934 31004 22850 33001 33697 02505
31313 09608 80441
51515 10191
61616 AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 22
62626 CENTER LST WND 019 AEV 07775 WL150 31004 093 REL 2293N07467
W 044143 SPG 2293N07466W 044530 =

[chaser1]

Dead stationary.

[SunnyThoughts]

As per the recon thread, the eye is once again closed.

[Alyono]

may have turned to the WNW now based upon the fix location

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Last image from me:

[Steve]

Plus it looks like the remnants of Ida looks weaker and it appears to be moving more east.

You may want to look at ASCAT. looks like a subtropical depression to me.

Word. I was looking at the visible the other day when it was spinning off of Jacksonville and have otherwise been watching the mimic where you couldn't see the spin as well but you could see the surge. Now it's blowing up. I'm 70% sure it's at least energy from if not the spin itself from 99l. I'll check out the ascat since I haven't been following the winds.

[Cdavis]

Agree with "Alyono" ...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Plus it looks like the remnants of Ida looks weaker and it appears to be moving more east.

You may want to look at ASCAT. looks like a subtropical depression to me.

Word. I was looking at the visible the other day when it was spinning off of Jacksonville and have otherwise been watching the mimic where you couldn't see the spin as well but you could see the surge. Now it's blowing up. I'm 70% sure it's at least energy from if not the spin itself from 99l. I'll check out the ascat since I haven't been following the winds.

Ida or it's remnants never made it as far as Jacksonville, did they? I thought the farthest it got was the mid-Atlantic.