ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

You can see a visible energy loss in the system. Plus it will probably get more of Cuba than they think.


This might very well be another Danny.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Actually the most recent frames of sat imagery looks like she is gaining some latitude.

[adam0983]

Media Hype this storm is making everyone panic for just some rain and a little wind lol. Just an Opinion not a forecast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I'm guessing a lot of those vorticities we're seeing won't survive the trek through Hispaniola. Probably best to track the broad circulation.

[sunnyday]

Now it's on the west coast of Florida??? And in the Gulf???? What is going on?????

[Sanibel]

A weak system like that in an unfavorable environment is usually toast when it hits Hispaniola.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

Media hype is terrible - this morning a Miami radio station said "the next intermediate advisory is at 10 a.m."

Huh?

P.S. The problem is media (TV, radio, Internet) are made up of people with NO weather training, and probably know less about what the system is doing, than many people on this site...

[psyclone]

Now it's on the west coast of Florida??? And in the Gulf???? What is going on?????

It doesn't appear much of anything is going on...less by the hour..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bluespider]

LOL this is better than the Game of Thrones!

[Frank2]

The problem is that the NHC needed to show the cone with a Cat 1 over several days, and now that the outcome seems to be going in the other direction (thankfully) the public is still visualizing the cone of 2 or 3 days ago...

[OuterBanker]

Erika now reminds me of a tropical storm we had a few years ago. It too was very disorganized as it headed to our coast. The llc was detached from the mlc. After it made land fall in Wilmington the mlc stayed in Wilmington and saturated the area. The llc continued nne and exited NC around the northern outer banks (around 200 miles between). Here it was sunny and beautiful a tad windy with a few cumulus clouds and you could the clouds spiraling in bands. Only weather nerds were aware of what we were seeing.

[psyclone]

The problem is that the NHC needed to show the cone with a Cat 1 over several days, and now that the outcome seems to be going in the other direction (thankfully) the public is still visualizing the cone of 2 or 3 days ago...

another complacency builder.

[tatertawt24]

This is such a mess -- weirdest storm I've ever tracked so far.

I love it.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop heading for the heart of Hispaniola....

[Steve]

wow...just wow...LMBO Question, I don't recall seeing/remembering any "weaker" systems/LLC going through the big mountains. We all know well organized systems and hurricanes have been destroyed by it, but I wonder how much the mountains will really effect this "weaker" system. I wonder if it just dances/bounces around the island? Any thoughts?

I think the NHC's suggestion of a reformation north or west of Hispaniola seems reasonable if there is enough vigor left. But this looks to be the toughest 12-24 period for Erika yet (increasing shear, landfall interaction, etc.). Maybe the weaker nature may not be affected as we have seen in prior disruptions since it's not stacked anyway. I'm looking forward to watching the loops though to see what happens.

[CourierPR]

Actually the most recent frames of sat imagery looks like she is gaining some latitude.

I agree. Latest visible seems to indicate a gain in latitude. You can see the entire circulation moving WNW.

[seatrump]

Just a quick update from the Turks and Caicos.

From the forecasts it is looking increasingly as though this system will mostly miss us. We are under a Tropical Storm Warning with most businesses closing early afternoon. The airport is closing today at 6pm, not reopening until Sunday at noon. This is tough on the tourism industry as most flights arrive on Saturday.

We have completed our preparations. It is a breezy morning, I estimate continuous winds at about 20mph with gusts close to 30. We have had no rain yet although cloud cover is increasing. I'll post a video later if there is anything to show (other than the waves in my pool).

[gatorcane]

NAVY NRL site vis loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[galaxy401]

The death toll has climbed in Dominica with at least 12 dead. Some sources have the death toll over 20...

[JPmia]

NAVY NRL site vis loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

That is a great product.. thanks for sharing.