ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Looking at that loop, especially the last few frames, I swear the LLC is reforming further south. I must be wrong, but you can see what little westward moving clouds there are start moving south, southwest and clouds further south start to move west.

Easy to get fooled by optical illusions.

Might be why the HH found the wind shift where the did.

[tolakram]

Right, I forgot to check recon.

[Evil Jeremy]

At this point, if she wants a chance to reorganize in the Bahamas, Erika needs to make north progress immediately to avoid Cuba.

Erika is becoming less of a threat to Florida by the hour. Still need to stay vigilant though.

[tolakram]

West winds are hard to come by with the screaming easterlies in the Caribbean.

[stormlover2013]

evil it will be a threat to Florida no matter what, rain wise and etc even if its not a strong storm, I am looking at the NAM model and that trough looks strong

[tolakram]

So when does someone call Jamaica?

[Bocadude85]

Wow Erika is a mess this morning. I can not believe the winds are 50 mph in this thing. Will be interesting to see how she interacts with the mountains today. Couldn't the mountains literally push her back offshore to the north once she starts her crossing?

[SouthFLTropics]

So when does someone call Jamaica?

If I was in Jamaica I would definitely be grabbing my umbrella on the way out the door...

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree, the center of the low is west of forecast line, not sure the center is fully closed based on recon. But on visibles, that's where the center looks to be. Looks like that would put the NE quadrant into the mountains and restrict any decent inflow when she gets there.

Seems like I recall a few past storms "avoiding" that by jogging SW a few times. Same thing around Jamaica too. No real explanation for it then and it will be interesting to see if that happens here, provided the center stays closed at all.

[stormlover2013]

yeah erika looks really bad this morning, I don't know if she will make it......

[tailgater]

Recon found the slight wind shift to the south

They are flying a little higher on that pass

Check that they flying higher this entire mission it seems

[AutoPenalti]

What is shear like this morning?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like you can see the center in the last few frames.

[Frank2]

West winds are hard to come by with the screaming easterlies in the Caribbean.

I was thinking that, too - the strong easterlies might not be directly related to Erika. Often, winds behind tropical waves in the Caribbean are at the same intensity (40+ kts), so the current measurements might be misleading...

[CourierPR]

On visible satellite, I see what appears to be a center at 17.5 N and 69.5 W.

[Florida1118]

Looks like you can see the center in the last few frames.

Might want to check that image

[Frank2]

panamatropicwatch, what loop are you looking at - that appears to be from a few days ago...

[tropicwatch]

Looks like you can see the center in the last few frames.

Might want to check that image

Loaded wrong image first, has been corrected

[AdamFirst]

Any particular reason why Erika has yet to make a primarily west-northwestward heading?

[tropicwatch]

Looks like you can see the center in the last few frames.

Here it is