ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

BTW, Recon is finding plenty of tropical force winds on the eastern quadrant, most recently a 56 knot flight level wind, so 50 mph at surface sounds good to me.

[Frank P]

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 68.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=latlon

Also see the convection trying to fire up close to the center on the east side of the storm... she sure is fighting but dang that LLC sure looks like it is going right over the mountains of the big island....

[weathernerdguy]

The center is well south of the island, its at the bottom of the low level clouds hitting DR

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know, frankly, if we'll even have a storm by the 5 p.m. advisory today. Anything is possible, but she is getting beat up by shear and now it looks like she has an inevitable battle with the mountains of Hispanola. Not the kind of thing that leads to a robust system. IF she can get back north of the islands pretty quick, conditions will be more favorable. But Erika certainly hasn't started moving WNW for the past day - as many models forecast -- and until she does, her goose may be cooked.

Just my semi-educated amateur's opinion ... listen to the experts as always!

[nativefloridian]

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 68.5°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-70&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=latlon

Also see the convection trying to fire up close to the center on the east side of the storm... she sure is fighting but dang that LLC sure looks like it is going right over the mountains of the big island....

I agree. I've noticed the increased convection after looking at loops posted over the past hour.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

If you look at that close-up visible of the center, I don't know how much interaction it will truly have with the mountains. I still have it moving due west, and I'm not going to be surprised at all of Erika fools us again by staying south.

[alienstorm]

If you closely you see multiple centers the main one is south of the SE tip with convention building up and now covered. She is a fighter...

[HurriGuy]

There is also very tall thunderstorms firing right next to the center.

[Frank P]

The center is well south of the island, its at the bottom of the low level clouds hitting DR

To my untrained eye the LLC is close to the island moving wnw, and SSE of the LLC is the mid level circulation moving in tandem with it, but not stacked, you definitely see two circulations in the loop...

[Ntxw]

A little offshoot from the current Erika but I was reading through some folks mentioning past system and meteorologists have brought into light that "Erika" has done this in the past. Fool you once, fool you again!

2009 Erika



Looked similar to this Erika, blowup convection to the south and east, with a naked racing LLC west/NW



Originally the NHC had her skirting north of the antilles but they were slowly forced south and west over the DR. However she never recovered from the Carib.(2009 was the last big El Nino year; what's up with the name Erika and El Nino's? 1997 was one too)

[BobHarlem]

Ok time to take a 24 hour nap and check tomorrow. Lots of theories and "center" identification attempts are going to fly today.

[caneman]

If you look at that close-up visible of the center, I don't know how much interaction it will truly have with the mountains. I still have it moving due west, and I'm not going to be surprised at all of Erika fools us again by staying south.

It's not just interaction with the mountains. The inflow will also be caught off to some extent. For a weak storm, this can be a death blow.

[NDG]

Recon keeps finding some solid TS force winds just NE of the LLC.

133000 1807N 06814W 8429 01596 0124 +169 +167 140042 045 042 002 00

[tropicwatch]

Probably the best recon for Erika so far.

[JPmia]

To get an idea of what those mountains will do to the storm's structure, take a look at the low level clouds to the NW of the center(s).. the low level clouds rotating are running right into the mountain chain and are not making it over them. You can see them dissipate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[chris_fit]

To get an idea of what those mountains will do to the storm's structure, take a look at the low level clouds to the NW of the center(s).. the low level clouds rotating are running right into the mountain chain and are not making it over them. You can see them dissipate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

That's pretty amazing - It's like a brick wall - Thanks for the link!

[jaxfladude]

Governor Scott has issued a State of Emergency for Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not a bad move given the uncertainties with Erika.
Never know how little to huge impacts a tropical system will have. This one could be one of those system that may substitute moderate to stronger intensity for a major wide area flooding event. That is if some of the models are to come to fruition.

[psyclone]

I'm assuming Erika (despite what recon is currently showing) dissipates over the mountainous terrain. the question for me is will there be a coherent enough disturbance remaining to regenerate? I don't know but it's late August...you can bet i'll be watching with interest as I would any disturbance that could be headed in my general direction at this time of year especially.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sunnyday]

A state of emergency for a tropical storm? Is that typical?

[JPmia]

It seems that if she has multiple centers and/or vortices rotating around when she landfalls in the DR that one of them could reform to the north or south of the island and become the dominant one?