ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I thought that the SE trough would either guide it in or if it was at the bottom of the trough it would kick it out. It doesnt look like either is happening

http://i.imgur.com/PiMqnF0.gif

Nothing out of the ordinary is happening, the Euro and even the GFS showed this to slow down significantly this evening into tomorrow morning, then start a northerly track and eventually NE track during the day Saturday.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012339
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 27 20151001
233030 2336N 07335W 6966 03044 9896 +121 +019 141060 060 047 001 00
233100 2337N 07333W 6969 03042 9902 +118 +024 142060 060 045 001 00
233130 2338N 07332W 6969 03046 9909 +115 +026 139059 061 043 001 00
233200 2340N 07331W 6964 03053 9911 +116 +027 140056 058 045 000 00
233230 2341N 07329W 6970 03046 9916 +115 +028 141053 055 045 001 00
233300 2342N 07328W 6960 03064 9918 +117 +027 138048 050 046 001 03
233330 2344N 07327W 6974 03051 9927 +113 +029 138047 048 046 000 00
233400 2345N 07325W 6965 03067 9934 +107 +031 142045 048 043 001 00
233430 2346N 07324W 6965 03066 9945 +102 +035 142045 046 041 000 00
233500 2347N 07323W 6966 03071 9942 +105 +037 143048 049 041 001 00
233530 2349N 07321W 6967 03069 9950 +102 +035 147052 054 041 001 00
233600 2350N 07320W 6966 03072 9954 +099 +039 148054 054 039 002 00
233630 2351N 07318W 6967 03074 9958 +096 +041 149052 053 037 001 00
233700 2353N 07317W 6970 03072 9950 +105 +035 142049 050 036 001 00
233730 2354N 07316W 6963 03079 9959 +100 +029 141047 048 036 001 00
233800 2355N 07314W 6969 03073 9966 +095 +031 143049 051 034 001 03
233830 2357N 07313W 6965 03080 9954 +108 +032 143050 051 034 001 00
233900 2358N 07312W 6966 03084 9958 +107 +032 147049 050 033 001 00
233930 2359N 07310W 6970 03080 9961 +105 +032 148048 050 033 001 03
234000 2401N 07309W 6965 03089 9967 +105 +031 150048 048 029 001 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

Well NDG, it has been moving at about 5kts on average for the past 36 hours or so. So, you are right and proved the cyclone is not plowing through for sure. I just want this monster to hit the wall and turn north/northeast and finally get out of the Bahamas region to relieve those suffering folks there!!! Also, to not affect Bermuda and stay permanently well away from the U.S.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 012343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/23:12:40Z
B. 22 deg 51 min N
074 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2523 m
D. 116 kt
E. 258 deg 16 nm
F. 341 deg 123 kt
G. 256 deg 18 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 10 C / 3045 m
J. 19 C / 3047 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 256 / 18 NM 23:06:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well we are up to 326 guests here so there must be a little bit of interest left

[CrazyC83]

One thing I believe: Joaquin is the strongest storm in the satellite era to have non-tropical origins. The only other majors I know of that came from sources other than tropical waves were Alicia 1983, Diana 1984, Bob and Claudette 1991 and Michael 2012.

[bahamaswx]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

[AutoPenalti]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Those were probably early recon reports.

[bahamaswx]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Those were probably early recon reports.

They just flew through. There was a very minor secondary peak in wind speeds, but not much.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012349
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 28 20151001
234030 2402N 07307W 6967 03087 9968 +104 +028 150045 048 031 001 00
234100 2403N 07306W 6969 03088 9974 +101 +027 149043 044 033 000 00
234130 2405N 07305W 6967 03093 9982 +095 +031 148043 044 031 001 00
234200 2406N 07303W 6963 03095 9982 +095 +036 147045 046 030 001 00
234230 2407N 07302W 6968 03090 9984 +096 +037 142048 049 030 000 00
234300 2409N 07300W 6963 03099 9989 +095 +030 141048 049 030 001 03
234330 2410N 07300W 6961 03106 9993 +097 +029 142048 049 /// /// 03
234400 2411N 07302W 6978 03090 9988 +100 +030 140048 049 /// /// 03
234430 2411N 07304W 6974 03085 9978 +100 +031 138047 049 029 002 03
234500 2411N 07306W 6968 03090 9976 +101 +032 135045 046 030 000 00
234530 2411N 07308W 6967 03090 9971 +103 +030 135043 043 033 001 03
234600 2411N 07310W 6973 03083 9969 +105 +034 134046 048 033 001 00
234630 2411N 07312W 6969 03082 9964 +108 +031 130045 047 032 001 03
234700 2411N 07314W 6965 03088 9966 +105 +025 128048 048 034 000 00
234730 2411N 07317W 6969 03083 9965 +106 +028 125046 048 034 000 03
234800 2411N 07319W 6972 03081 9963 +107 +027 124046 046 033 001 03
234830 2411N 07321W 6972 03078 9958 +110 +027 126046 046 033 001 00
234900 2411N 07323W 6967 03080 9956 +110 +026 124045 046 033 001 00
234930 2411N 07325W 6963 03087 9951 +112 +026 120046 046 036 001 00
235000 2411N 07328W 6965 03082 9947 +115 +023 119047 048 036 000 03
$$
;

[Hammy]

How can he be undergoing an ERC? I'm not really seeing much of a double wind maxima from the recon reports.

Those were probably early recon reports.

Two bands of 130+ kt on SW and 100+ kt on NE.

[cjrciadt]

From NOAA

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

[NDG]

Well NDG, it has been moving at about 5kts on average for the past 36 hours or so. So, you are right and proved the cyclone is not plowing through for sure. I just want this monster to hit the wall and turn north/northeast and finally get out of the Bahamas region to relieve those suffering folks there!!! Also, to not affect Bermuda and stay permanently well away from the U.S.

You and me both, its been close to 12 hrs that it has been beating crooked Island with hurricane force winds, unbelievable.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Good evening ozonepete. Want to get your insights on the latest with Joaquin. I have shared some thoughts of my own.

Hi northjax. I just got on here so I haven't seen your comments. Thus mine are given without bias towards or against yours. The key for all of these forecasts as to whether this landfalls on the east coast is when, where and how strongly the Midwestern trough negatively tilts and catches Joaquin, including the possibility that it doesn't catch our hurricane at all, which is what the euro has assumed all along and now the other models are buying. Now you would think that since the extra G-IV samplings and extra east coast balloon samplings have occurred that the models are getting a better handle and that's why they're coming into agreement. But this particular interaction of the trough and Joaquin are so complex and still not even initiated yet that I have come to the conclusion we can't rely on any forecast, including blends, until Joaquin turns north and starts to accelerate. It's only then that the models can really resolve how much Joaquin may get pulled northwestward by the northern side of the trough, if at all. And the logical extension of this logic right now is that the further west Joaquin gets before the turn, and the stronger and deeper that trough reaches southeastward, the more likely that the trough catches this TC and pulls it northwestward.

Finally, when the models pointed to a landfall in the mid-Atlantic for days, everyone assumed it was true. Then the models for the most part had it curving into Hatteras/SE VA yesterday and everyone was fine with it - done deal. Now the models have it going out to sea and everyone assumes they are right again, just because the models agree with the euro. Granted a consensus has developed but I don't see a lot of reasons for high confidence yet. Not until this turns.

I had to comment since I was looking WV imagery at work earlier, and wondered if the specific way the low gets cut off or how the trough tilts could be missed by all the models and we get a different track. In reality I thought I might sound like an idiot, so I didn't post it. I am in now way an expert on the synoptics, and not a met. It is good to know I was at least on the right track in observing the features. Thanks for posting that analysis. It helps when our mets post so we can learn

[northjaxpro]

NHC still stating W/SW motion at 5 mph currently.

[tropicwatch]

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) Wow

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 020000
AF300 0911A JOAQUIN HDOB 29 20151001
235030 2411N 07330W 6969 03076 9951 +111 +024 124049 050 036 001 00
235100 2411N 07332W 6972 03072 9953 +109 +026 122050 050 037 000 00
235130 2411N 07334W 6963 03083 9950 +110 +025 120050 050 036 001 00
235200 2411N 07336W 6972 03072 9944 +115 +021 118049 050 037 001 00
235230 2411N 07339W 6965 03079 9949 +110 +021 116050 050 038 001 00
235300 2411N 07341W 6964 03078 9950 +108 +023 113049 050 039 001 00
235330 2411N 07343W 6970 03071 9949 +109 +024 112049 050 040 000 00
235400 2411N 07345W 6969 03072 9947 +109 +024 108050 051 039 001 00
235430 2411N 07348W 6966 03080 9948 +110 +021 104051 051 039 001 00
235500 2411N 07350W 6967 03074 9946 +110 +019 102052 052 040 002 00
235530 2411N 07352W 6970 03067 9944 +110 +019 101053 054 041 001 03
235600 2411N 07355W 6972 03064 9940 +113 +020 100054 054 042 001 00
235630 2411N 07357W 6967 03068 9934 +117 +017 100053 055 043 002 00
235700 2410N 07359W 6967 03072 9938 +113 +021 100055 055 045 000 00
235730 2410N 07402W 6966 03071 9933 +115 +023 099054 055 044 001 00
235800 2410N 07404W 6969 03065 9934 +115 +024 099055 055 043 001 00
235830 2410N 07406W 6970 03066 9930 +118 +023 096051 055 044 001 00
235900 2410N 07409W 6962 03075 9927 +120 +017 092052 052 043 002 00
235930 2410N 07411W 6969 03068 9929 +120 +018 092053 053 043 001 03
000000 2410N 07413W 6966 03067 9933 +116 +022 089054 055 043 002 00
$$
;

[Ken Lucas]

Is the weakening suppose to begin once it eventually makes its turn to the north?

[northjaxpro]

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) Wow

Yeah, the eye is getting small, almost pinhole like but not quite. Very close though, however. If it gets under 10 miles in diameter, for me , that's a pinhole eye feature.