ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#2061 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:38 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re:

#2062 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:41 pm

windnrain wrote:Another wobble west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Almost at 75W


Looks to be at 74.6 to me. Still a little ways to 75.
0 likes   

lhpfish
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 5:01 pm

#2063 Postby lhpfish » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:42 pm

she is not eager to go north that's for sure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just educated opinions of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#2064 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:45 pm

“People from mainland Acklins go to Samana Cay to harvest the cascarilla bark as a way of life,” Mr Gray said on Thursday morning. “There are 8-10 people on the cay now from what I understand, and there is temporary housing. If they don’t have radio to know what’s going on that would be a problem but more often than not they are in communication.”

Samana Cay is that little island NE of Crooked Island that the eye passed over. Hope those people are okay.
0 likes   

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2065 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:48 pm

HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2066 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:54 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning

That is, theoretically, still a chance of that happening. :lol:
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

davidiowx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 390
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2013 11:07 am
Location: Richmond, TX

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2067 Postby davidiowx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:54 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning


I highly doubt that..
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2068 Postby MGC » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:00 pm

Looks to me that the eye has started to contract again......MGC
0 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2069 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:01 pm

MGC wrote:Looks to me that the eye has started to contract again......MGC

ERC happening?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2070 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:01 pm

davidiowx wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning


I highly doubt that..
Monster trough for October so yes..Nothing plowing through that
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2071 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:01 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning

That is, theoretically, still a chance of that happening. :lol:
Buy a Powerball and a flight on southwest and come talk to me :D
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2072 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:02 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
davidiowx wrote:
HeeBGBz wrote:I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.
More likely to win powerball on an aircraft that is crashing after getting struck by lightning


Monster trough for October so yes..Nothing plowing through that
Monster trough that seems to be slowing down.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#2073 Postby blp » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:02 pm

Euro still has this moving west even at 24 hours. We may still be seeing by tomorrow. It looks like it will cross 75W before making the turn which will again put it at odds with NHC again. Let's see.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#2074 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:04 pm

I think the turn begins in the late night tonight into tomorrow. That trough is slowing down (which was forecasted) but it is a monster one and it's still digging.

Then it's the battle between either the Atlantic ULL or the one forming over the US. Which one captures it?

(as always, see disclaimer).
0 likes   
my posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion (to which I welcome challenges!) and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#2075 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:14 pm

Is Joaquin's eye filling in from bursting or could this be the first signs of weakening?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

Re:

#2076 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:19 pm

Hammy wrote:Is Joaquin's eye filling in from bursting or could this be the first signs of weakening?


I don't see it filling in anymore than normal. He's gone his whole life with a clouded-over eye. A bit strange.
0 likes   

drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

#2077 Postby drewschmaltz » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:22 pm

:uarrow: to me it looks like it just keeps getting bigger and stronger. Seriously, the outflow looks like its healthier now than ever. Does a clear eye help it intensify more? The only thing I think is holy crapoly this thing is a monster / when is it going to get a nice clear eye / when is it going to turn.
0 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#2078 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:23 pm

I heard that a recon plane was on the way to the hurricane. How close is it now? Wonder what will happen.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re:

#2079 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:26 pm

galaxy401 wrote:I heard that a recon plane was on the way to the hurricane. How close is it now? Wonder what will happen.

They are just getting to the western most Bahamas now
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re:

#2080 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:29 pm

Hammy wrote:Is Joaquin's eye filling in from bursting or could this be the first signs of weakening?

If you look at infrared its not filling in, its getting smaller...I bet there will be an EWR cycle here soon.
If you zoom it looks like there are small vortexes in the eyewall
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests