ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Thanks re: my blog post. I opened the door to unlikely scenarios (i.e. following the ridge to Cuba, ducking under the trough into Florida or the Gulf) a very slight crack, but 5% is a very small chance of all of those combined.

[windnrain]

The trough is not making its way any more east and looks like it's becoming negatively tilted.

[CronkPSU]

I'm sorry people saying it won't get with in 400 miles of the US. I'm sorry it is already within 250 miles of the US so that is just wrong. With the wind field so large it wouldn't take much for TS strength winds to impact the US.

By my calculations J is 375 miles from the closest point in Florida.

http://www.freemaptools.com/how-far-is-it-between.htm

That would be the eye right? Outer bands must be closer than that

[Sanibel]

Anyone know the diameter of the eye?

17-20 miles IMO.

[Ken Lucas]

The trough is not making its way any more east and looks like it's becoming negatively tilted.

What are the implications of that?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I'm sorry people saying it won't get with in 400 miles of the US. I'm sorry it is already within 250 miles of the US so that is just wrong. With the wind field so large it wouldn't take much for TS strength winds to impact the US.

By my calculations J is 375 miles from the closest point in Florida.

http://www.freemaptools.com/how-far-is-it-between.htm

That would be the eye right? Outer bands must be closer than that

Tropical storms winds extend 100 miles to the west I believe

[Extratropical94]

Plane is en route.

[HeeBGBz]

I hope this change in direction happens before it ends up in Mobile or some such booboo. I'll believe it when I see it.


Not meteorologist, just a stranger on the internet.

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-still-a-serious-threat-despite-model-changes/

This is my latest blog post, with a Northeast focus but describing all the possibilities.

Great blog post! I took Sandy on the chin, still rebuilding and very nervous at the moment.

Very understandable. We are all praying that this turns out to be nothing like Sandy.

[boca]

The trough is not making its way any more east and looks like it's becoming negatively tilted.

Its still digging south look towards the Yucatan.

[Hammy]

From NHC discussion, pretty ominous.

While this advisory will not increase the
intensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft
arriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system.

[tropicwatch]

Looks to be still creeping closer to the south end of Long Island, Bahamas.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

[rickybobby]

5 pm update
Winds 130 and moving sw at 5 mph

[kat61]

Now the gov of NJ issued an SOE for a cane that at best will be 800 miles away. Getting ridiculous and will get people killed when they ignore a real emergency.

perhapes it's because of the flood risk that is already happening, not necessarily the hurricane. NHC and FEMA had a live report on ABC website to continue to monitor about 2:30ish. There is flooding along the east coast.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[windnrain]

Looks to be still creeping closer to the south end of Long Island, Bahamas.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

And the west movement continues

[curtadams]

The trough is not making its way any more east and looks like it's becoming negatively tilted.

That's exactly what the GFS is forecasting as leading to the out to sea scenario: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[northjaxpro]

Looks to be still creeping closer to the south end of Long Island, Bahamas.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

And the west movement continues

I know it could be the eye wobbling some, but there is still a slight south of west movement with the cyclone currently.

[chaser1]

The trough is not making its way any more east and looks like it's becoming negatively tilted.

Its still digging south look towards the Yucatan.

Correct, the trough is still digging southward but more importantly appears to be swinging more to an even greater negative tilt at its base. That, is the predominant reason that the EURO and now the GFS has been pretty insistent on Joaquin not only being forced to abate its general westward motion, but in fact to practically respond as if suddently hitting a wall, thus being forced towards the north (or even NNE). Looking at the trough's evolution, I'd guess that there will be enhanced affects by the strong mid to upper level winds shooting up from the southwest. This should likely aid in the hurricane's outflow, though may at some point possibly inpinge as shear if too strong (though the latter is probably less likely). Then, as the base of the trough cuts off, the low itself should aid in the hurricane's outflow until Joaquin reaches the same latitude (north of 30N) where once again, the cutoff might then impact shear on Joaquin's westernmost quadrant.

[Ken Lucas]

From the NHC 5PM Discussion:

"The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely."

Are they likely to make another eastern adjustment at the 11:00 PM advisory or over the tomorrow?

[chaser1]

I could potentially see an counter clockwise loop prior to Joaquin's northward turn