ATL: DANNY - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#201 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:49 pm

12Z Euro initialized.

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#202 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:52 pm

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#203 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:54 pm

:uarrow: That Ridge looks pretty solid :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#204 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:55 pm

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#205 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 18, 2015 12:57 pm

For the first time, the GFDL picks up on this:

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#206 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:01 pm

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#207 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:08 pm

Image

Weatherbell Euro plot shows not much strengthening for the first 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#208 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:09 pm

tolakram wrote:Image

Weatherbell Euro plot shows not much strengthening for the first 60 hours.



Euro typically under strengthens storms correct?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#209 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:10 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote: Euro typically under strengthens storms correct?


No. Not once a TC has formed and been initialized by it. Over the last ~5 years, it has been much too strong for some. It is often one of the strongest of the dynamic models once a TC has already formed.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#210 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:13 pm

LarryWx wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote: Euro typically under strengthens storms correct?


No. Not once a TC has formed and been initialized by it.


Oh because I think it is dead wrong on this one. Opinions are mine and not the NHC. Actually they are the NHC's opinion lol I agree almost completely with them on track and intensity.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#211 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:13 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:
tolakram wrote:
Weatherbell Euro plot shows not much strengthening for the first 60 hours.


Euro typically under strengthens storms correct?


Within 2 mb of yesterdays runs and in the almost exact position as the 12 z yesterday
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#212 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:15 pm

NCSTORMMAN wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
NCSTORMMAN wrote: Euro typically under strengthens storms correct?


No. Not once a TC has formed and been initialized by it.


Oh because I think it is dead wrong on this one. Opinions are mine and not the NHC. Actually they are the NHC's opinion lol I agree almost completely with them on track and intensity.


It may end up wrong in this case and you may end up correct. But it typically hasn't been understrengthening already formed TC's. I'd say that is way more often the case with the MU (aka GFS)over the Euro once formed...i.e., not for false geneses.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#213 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:18 pm

Image

Weatherbell ... 1004MB at 90 hours
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#214 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:18 pm

I thought I remembered it under performing intensity last season and the season before but I could be wrong.
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#215 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:18 pm

difference between yesterday for 96h is interesting, the Euro is speeding it up and having it weaker...
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#216 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:19 pm

models are far too small with the size of this
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Re:

#217 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:21 pm

Alyono wrote:models are far too small with the size of this

I posted yesterday on the small size of the envelope scream error...mini-cane
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#218 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:21 pm

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#219 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:23 pm

EC has a decided weakening trend after 78 hours. Only negative parameter is a slightly unfavorable kelvin wave around that time. However, these models seem far too small with the size
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#220 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:23 pm

Looks like the euro got a reality check, now we'll have to see if Four out performs or is typically struggling to survive.
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