ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[TheStormExpert]

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[gatorcane]

Big difference between the GFS Ensembles and ECMWF Ensembles by hour 192 regarding the ridge/trough setup over the Western Atlantic and Eastern North America with the ECMWF as usual, showing much more of a ridge:

ECMWF Ensembles:


GFS Ensembles:


The 00Z GEM model has this system "crawling" NW at the end of the run in the vicinity of the Bahamas:

[northjaxpro]

Regarding 98L long range, just want to re'emphasize again that the recurve scenario is certainly no guarantee just yet. I know you guys know this, but I just felt the need to state this nonetheless.....

[BobHarlem]

Regarding 98L long range, just want to re'emphasize again that the recurve scenario is certainly no guarantee just yet. I know you guys know this, but I just felt the need to state this nonetheless.....

Both major model sets show it and climatology favors it, what you say may be true, but the odds favor it recurving.

[northjaxpro]

Regarding 98L long range, just want to re'emphasize again that the recurve scenario is certainly no guarantee just yet. I know you guys know this, but I just felt the need to state this nonetheless.....

Both major model sets show it and climatology favors it, what you say may be true, but the odds favor it recurving.

Fair enough. But I would wait just a bit longer before taking those odds and wagering on it at Vegas or Atlantic City.

[LarryWx]

Regarding 98L long range, just want to re'emphasize again that the recurve scenario is certainly no guarantee just yet. I know you guys know this, but I just felt the need to state this nonetheless.....

Both major model sets show it and climatology favors it, what you say may be true, but the odds favor it recurving.

IF it becomes a TC in the E MDR, then odds would strongly favor it not reaching the CONUS, especially with it being a strong El Niño, due mainly to recurvature or dissipation before it could reach there. The longterm odds of any one system developing there in August and reaching the CONUS during a strong Nino is likely no higher than about 15% based on many decades of records. However, that means there is always the chance this one would be an exception such as was the case in 1899:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

However, IF 98L were to not become a TC until much further west, say close to the Lesser Antilles, then that would obviously be a whole different ballgame oddswise, especially if it were to become a Caribbean Cruiser. It is way too early to know where, if at all, it will become a TC. Overall, I do think a Caribbean Cruiser is a nontrivial possibility this season though I think the chances for that would be higher as we get toward mid to late Sep vs late Aug.

[northjaxpro]

Regarding 98L long range, just want to re'emphasize again that the recurve scenario is certainly no guarantee just yet. I know you guys know this, but I just felt the need to state this nonetheless.....

Both major model sets show it and climatology favors it, what you say may be true, but the odds favor it recurving.

IF it becomes a TC in the E MDR, then odds would strongly favor it not reaching the CONUS, especially with it being a strong El Niño, due mainly to recurvature or dissipation before it could reach there. The longterm odds of any one system developing there in August and reaching the CONUS during a strong Nino is likely no higher than about 15% based on many decades of records. However, that means there is always the chance this one would be an exception such as was the case in 1899:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

However, IF 98L were to not become a TC until much further west, say close to the Lesser Antilles, then that would obviously be a whole different ballgame oddswise, especially if it were to become a Caribbean Cruiser. It is way too early to know where, if at all, it will become a TC.

All that discussion above proves the point I was making earlier. Thanks for providing your analysis.
The point is to watch this evolve carefully before 100% proclaiming that 98L will recurve.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS up soon. I think it is going to blow it up again. Let's see what it does this time.

[SFLcane]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

[Hurricaneman]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

Possibly Atlantic Canada and or New England and Long Island based on a lot of those too

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[SFLcane]

Heres a view...ensembles.

[perk]

Heres a view...ensembles.

Only the GFS ensembles,what does the Euro ensembles show.Refer to the Euro ensemble post by gatorcane.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

Sure, if you trust 10-day model forecasts. And by the way, the deterministic run of the 00Z Euro brings this storm through the northern Antilles, near the Bahamas, and quite close to the eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge building in over SE Canada. Way too early to say right now.

[northjaxpro]

Odds favor the recurve scenario. I am not questioning that. I did not know I was opening a can of worms about this. I simply made a point in saying it is still early in the game and that the recurve scenario is not for certain yet a guarantee. Just remember folks this is a science and there are no 100% guarantees in weather forecasting you can take this fact to the bank and deposit it!!!!

[gatorcane]

Heres a view...ensembles.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... ck_gfs.png

Only the GFS ensembles,what does the Euro ensembles show.

They show more of a Western Atlantic ridge, I posted the graphic above and below again:

ECMWF Ensembles:

[SFLcane]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

Sure, if you trust 10-day model forecasts. And by the way, the deterministic run of the 00Z Euro brings this storm through the northern Antilles, near the Bahamas, and quite close to the eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge building in over SE Canada. Way too early to say right now.

Na ive yet to see any evidence of any type mid level ridging worth driving anything that far west. Odds are a trof will weaken the ridge and keep the 10+ year door open.

[perk]

Odds favor the recurve scenario. I am not questioning that. I did not know I was opening a can of worms about this. I simply made a point in saying it is still early in the game and that the recurve scenario is not for certain yet a guarantee. Just remember folks this is a science and there are no 100% guarantees in weather forecasting you can this fact to the bank and deposit it!!!!

I'm not sure the odds favor one or the other after only a few model runs.We don't even have a center yet.

[TheStormExpert]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

Sure, if you trust 10-day model forecasts. And by the way, the deterministic run of the 00Z Euro brings this storm through the northern Antilles, near the Bahamas, and quite close to the eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge building in over SE Canada. Way too early to say right now.

Na ive yet to see any evidence of any type mid level ridging worth driving anything that far west. Odds are a trof will weaken the ridge and keep the 10+ year door open.

There certainly has not been a persistent East Coast trough for 10+ years, more like for the past 5+ years makes sense.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

Weak through 30 hours.

[perk]

It's recurve city apparently with all these waves which is always a good thing. GFS ensembles showing just that with a weakness in subtropical ridge. Maybe a threat to Bermuda we shall see.

Sure, if you trust 10-day model forecasts. And by the way, the deterministic run of the 00Z Euro brings this storm through the northern Antilles, near the Bahamas, and quite close to the eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge building in over SE Canada. Way too early to say right now.

Na ive yet to see any evidence of any type mid level ridging worth driving anything that far west. Odds are a trof will weaken the ridge and keep the 10+ year door open.

With the GFS showing a recurve and the Euro showing more of a ridge, in my opinion that puts the odds at 50/50.