WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.1N
163.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 162.7E, APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP, FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT CURVED CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Moderate shear keeping this from developing faster but isn't slowing the development...



Vorticity is still very broad...

[euro6208]

Startling GFS runs...18Z and 00Z...

Category 5 through the Northern Marianas and swiping Okinawa and making landfall near Shanghai...

[wxman57]

6Z GFS is weaker and recurves the storm into Korea. Euro is much slower with intensification and is still suggesting recurve as it's approaching China.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This system is going to be an interesting one. All main models suggest development of this system in the next 5 days. Plus, the SSTs and low/moderate shear will help it to get going. I think this is one system that should be watched closely.




Synopsis for 95W and other basins: http://goo.gl/zd26kz

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a strong typhoon on track to recurve east of China, perhaps to southern Japan in about 12 days. 12Z GFS has it hitting southern Japan.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 280047
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1045 AM CHST SUN JUN 28 2015

PMZ173-174-290200-
POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1045 AM CHST SUN JUN 28 2015

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BETWEEN KOSRAE AND POHNPEI IS CENTERED AT
ABOUT 7 DEGREES NORTH AND 161 DEGREES EAST...WHICH IS 160 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE AND 210 MILES EAST OF POHNPEI. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEK. ALSO...THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME
VERY ACTIVE AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED ROUGHLY 440 MILES SOUTH
OF GUAM IS STILL BEING MONITORED.

THE DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
7 INCHES ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF MUDSLIDES ON
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.

WEST MONSOON WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
MICRONESIA IN THE COMING DAYS. SEA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS
FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT AND DANGEROUS FOR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL.

RESIDENTS OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...AND FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WWMY80 PGUM 280130
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1130 AM CHST SUN JUN 28 2015

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-290200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
1130 AM CHST
SUN JUN 28 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY THREATEN THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEK...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE NEAR 7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 161 DEGREES
EAST LONGITUDE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THEN TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY MID-WEEK IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW STANDS...THE
DISTURBANCE WOULD THREATEN THE MARIANAS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR
TYPHOON DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SINCE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS STILL DEVELOPING...IT IS NOT YET
POSSIBLE TO GIVE DETAILED INFORMATION ON ITS FUTURE TRACK OR WINDS
AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. STAY INFORMED ON ITS PROGRESS BY
FOLLOWING THE LATEST STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM. THESE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE
AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

Looks like the most populated islands in the Marianas might get a visit from this monster...

EURO




JMA



NAVGEM



CMC on the other hand misses the Islands as it interacts with another storm...

[euro6208]

GFS is more northerly...

[euro6208]

A 24 HOUR pressure drop of 2 millibars in Kosrae...

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR KOSRAE AT 4N162E...WILL AFFECT THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CNMI AS A TYPHOON
ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT NEAR GUAM AND ROTA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. DUE TO
THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE DISTURBANCE...CHOSE TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT BECOME MORE PREDICTABLE.


SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W CENTERED NEAR
KOSRAE AT 4N162E CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION
OVER KOSRAE STATE. A 24 HOUR PRESSURE DROP OF 2 MILLIBARS AT
KOSRAE...BETTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ABSENCE OF STRONG WIND
SHEAR INDICATE 95W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS STILL CURVE THE DISTURBANCE NORTHWEST BRINGING THE CENTER
NORTH OF POHNPEI BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN STILL EXISTS FOR KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND ON POHNPEI TONIGHT. A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK EVEN AS 95W EXITS POHNPEI STATE LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEPEND ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND TRACK OF 95W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS KOSRAE WATERS WITH
KOSRAE REPORTING CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KOSRAE WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD IT WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS OVER KOSRAE
WATERS TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL
STEADILY BUILD TODAY CAUSING SURF TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ON WEST FACING
REEFS OF KOSRAE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KOSRAE AND POSSIBLY POHNPEI
LATER THIS WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF 95W
THROUGH FSM.

[euro6208]

Which ever name this storm gets looks to swallow up 2 tropical cyclones including a northeast tracking Nangka barreling towards Guam...literally a tropical cyclone eating monster that won't let anything escape

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
162.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP, FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT CURVED
CONVECTION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Deep convection growing closer to the center...

[euro6208]

AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS MICRONESIA SOUTH OF
10N. TWO CIRCULATIONS COULD BE FOUND ON THE TROUGH...ONE SOUTH OF
GUAM NEAR 7N145E AND THE OTHER NEAR POHNPEI NEAR 7N160E. MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL BECOME OF THESE CIRCULATIONS.
EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE THEMSELVES AS THE
PREDICTIONS CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. AT TIMES THEY ARE
INTERESTED IN THE POHNPEI CIRCULATION THEN THEY SWITCH TO BEING
INTERESTED IN THE CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE
TWO CIRCULATIONS COMBINING INTO ONE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY. ALL THAT PROBABLY CAN
BE AGREED ON AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF and GFS now switch... ECMWF now showing a strong typhoon, something very similar to STY Saomai 8 years ago. Having it undergo very rapid intensification before lashing south-central China. But before that, they show this lashing Guam as a strong Ts. They also have another storm behind it though....



GFS has a weaker storm, albeit still close to typhoon intensity raking the Marianas, before lashing and recurving towards Eastern Japan.

[euro6208]

SST's along the track are very favorable, 28C to 31C. A track to the west will expose it more to higher SST's...

OHC is very favorable...

[euro6208]

809

FXXT03 EGRR 280417



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.06.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 7.7N 161.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.06.2015 7.7N 161.6E WEAK

00UTC 29.06.2015 8.2N 161.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.06.2015 9.3N 162.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.06.2015 10.8N 161.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.06.2015 11.4N 159.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.07.2015 12.7N 156.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.07.2015 13.2N 152.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.07.2015 13.4N 149.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.07.2015 13.9N 146.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.07.2015 14.6N 143.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.07.2015 15.7N 141.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.07.2015 16.9N 138.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[euro6208]

Another big model war with EURO taking this through Guam and eastern Asia while GFS takes this north of the Northern Marianas and recurving east of Japan...

Who will win?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro has the best record. Nailed Dolphin, Noul, Maysak, and other storms

[euro6208]

It's now giving me headaches...

Latest GFS run develops what is east of the Philippines, not Invest 94W, into the system that EURO very similarly develops both in track and intensity towards Eastern Asia which we think it's 95W...

Checking the date and time, it is spot on...

It then absorbs 2 other TS...

Seems like both models are following each other's footsteps...