EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

22:05 UTC discussion:

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09.5N107.5W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN
AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND
112W. THE EDGE OF AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure yet from GFS is 953mbs in this 18z run.

[Yellow Evan]

Lowest pressure yet from GFS is 953mbs in this 18z run.

http://i.imgur.com/idXPiLx.png

A few days ago, it had it at 936 mbar. Still 953 is intense though.

[cycloneye]

Almost a TD.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. This system is expected to
become a tropical depression later this evening or on Thursday while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z HWRF

[Kingarabian]

This AMSR pass looks weird. I don't know if it's just normal satellite rendering, but it looks like there are LLC's? One to the left with wrapping convection and the one to the right that is naked?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 92, 2015052800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1083W, 25, 1006, LO

[Yellow Evan]

Very very easy to read model clearly showing the height drops on the GFS 500 hpa level 576 line to the west. GFS has been consistent with this trough nudging the cyclone NW and then capturing and recurving the system poleward N and a landfall.

Look to next 4-5 days

As I've said on here, it's been erratic with it actually showing or landfall or staling offshore like most early season storms.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922015 05/28/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 47 60 74 83 86 85 85 80 73
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 47 60 74 83 86 85 85 80 73
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 60 65 64 58 51 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 7 8 6 10 9 7 11 10 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 -3 -3 -3 -3 1 3 4 5 3
SHEAR DIR 53 47 41 32 35 358 19 315 284 273 238 252 214
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.7 27.9 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 161 161 160 156 150 141 131 124 119 114
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 78 79 76 69 63 59 55 55 57 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 18 22 26 30 33 36 36 34
850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 29 34 38 36 47 46 42 41 56 64 85
200 MB DIV 158 122 111 100 109 66 68 59 84 92 74 50 50
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 2 0 2 3 3
LAND (KM) 1056 1080 1104 1113 1129 1141 1125 1029 918 825 758 706 669
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 65 70 78 78 76 65 35 23 12 10 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 35. 32.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 22. 35. 49. 58. 61. 60. 60. 55. 48.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 05/28/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 05/28/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.wxcaster4.com/animate/gfs_model3_loop.php3?type=5_100_85000.0&regionmodel=GFS

Yeah, it seems to keep it offshore for a while. Realistically, if that happens, rapid weakening is likely.

[gatorcane]

Looking good on sat imagery and seems well on its way to the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific season.

[Yellow Evan]

28/0000 UTC 9.4N 108.0W T1.0/1.0 92E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, might be time to pull the trigger.

[Yellow Evan]

942!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection has become increasingly consolidated and organized
in association with an area of low pressure located well to the
southwest of the coast of Mexico. Enough convective banding has
formed to yield Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and a 0459 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum
winds near 30 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that a center of
circulation appeared sufficiently well defined, allowing the
designation of the low as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time.

The depression lies to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific, and
its initial motion is 295/13 kt. Global model fields show that the
ridge should remain firmly in place, especially to the northwest of
the depression, during the next several days. This should force the
cyclone to slow down considerably and move north-northwestward from
days 2 through 5. There is good agreement among the track models
during the first 3 days of the forecast. By days 4 and 5, however,
there is more uncertainty with the GFDL and HWRF models showing a
northward motion while the GFS and ECMWF show a northwestward
motion. The NHC track forecast currently lies closest to the GFS
model and the TVCE multi-model consensus. Regardless of the exact
track, the cyclone is expected to stay well to the southwest of
Mexico during the entire forecast period.

Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
should support intensification during the next 3 days or so. Of the
intensity guidance, the SHIPS model is the most aggressive, making
the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours with a peak intensity near 90 kt
in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast isn't quite that
aggressive, but it does lie slightly above the ICON intensity
consensus. Rapid intensification isn't out of the question, and in
fact the RI guidance suggests that it may be likely during the next
24 hours. In light of that, some upward adjustment to the official
forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Weakening should
begin by day 4 once the cyclone reaches colder water.

Note that beginning this year, Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories,
Discussions, and Updates for the eastern North Pacific will now use
different time zones depending on the cyclone's current location, as
follows:

Central Time: east of 106.0W
Mountain Time: 106.0W to 114.9W
Pacific Time: 115.0W westward

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Based on RapidScat, I'd go 40-45 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 01, 2015052812, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1109W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 40, 1008, 200, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, D,

Welcome Andres! Have not seen you in SIX years!

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ONE EP012015 05/28/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 63 76 82 88 80 70 67 62 51
V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 63 76 82 88 80 70 67 62 51
V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 51 56 66 72 71 65 56 48 40 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 13 14 13 14 14 14 19 19 15 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 -2 -6 -6 0 0 1 7 5 8 3
SHEAR DIR 32 20 30 12 348 334 310 297 258 230 247 241 245
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 159 157 151 144 136 128 125 122 120 116
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.6 -51.7 -51.3 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 76 77 72 68 69 63 68 71 75 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 21 22 26 29 35 34 33 35 35 32
850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 35 36 32 35 25 35 26 44 46 50 47
200 MB DIV 110 104 106 74 64 86 73 128 96 89 52 68 11
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 4 1 -1 1 2 1
LAND (KM) 1088 1102 1124 1126 1132 1085 1016 950 914 882 868 827 795
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5
LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.0 113.4 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.5 116.0 116.5 116.9 117.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 78 77 74 61 44 24 16 7 8 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 19. 27. 26. 25. 29. 29. 23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 28. 41. 47. 53. 45. 35. 32. 27. 16.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012015 ONE 05/28/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 51% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 10.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

TXPZ26 KNES 281216
TCSENP

A. 01E (NONAME)

B. 28/1200Z

C. 11.4N

D. 110.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.5.
MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/0957Z 11.2N 109.8W SSMI


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

28/1200 UTC 11.4N 110.4W T2.0/2.0 01E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAY 2015 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 11:15:43 N Lon : 110:52:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1009.0mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 3.7

Center Temp : -80.0C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 43km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees