WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Up to MEDIUM by JTWC!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N
168.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH WIDESPREAD FLARING CONVECTION. A
100311Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS CONFIRMED BY A 092242Z
ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW THAT IS AIDING CONVECTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE
SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 54.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

NWS:

THE BIG STORY IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW THIS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE MARIANAS. MODEL ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH
MOVEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM MODEL RUN TO
MODEL RUN. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EARLIEST
POSSIBLE TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA...THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CIRCULATION FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE OUT AND ACTUAL PATH THAT IT TAKES...THE TIMING OF SHOWERS
MAY BE PUSHED FORWARD AND COULD POSSIBLY BE INCREASED TO NUMEROUS.
THIS SYSTEM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. JTWC HAS NOW INCREASED THE
SYSTEM TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. IF THE SYSTEM DECIDES TO STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS...A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS DEFINITELY INVEST
AREA 97W. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE CHANCE
OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A WARNED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS TO MEDIUM. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN
MICRONESIA FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...AND COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE FOR THE MARIANAS IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS40
AND THE ECMWF-HIRES TAKE IT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE
MARIANAS...WHILE THE NAVGEM AND THE UKMET SEEM TO BE RECURVING IT
OUT TOWARD THE EAST. THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES IN INTENSITY.
THE ECMWF-HIRES PREFERS TO KEEP IT A MINIMAL 35 OR 40 KNOT TROPICAL
STORM WHILE THE GFS40 SPINS IT UP TO AN 85 KNOT TYPHOON. THE KEY
TAKE AWAY IS THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND THE SITUATION
REQUIRES CAREFUL MONITORING.

[talkon]

Tropical Depression by JMA

WWJP25 RJTD 100600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 976 HPA
AT 42N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 42N 144E TO 40N 147E 38N 149E.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 149E TO 36N 153E 34N 156E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 149E TO 33N 150E 28N 146E 22N 140E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND
1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 45N 142E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 43N 139E
ALMOST STATIONARY.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 54N 180E 54N 176E 47N 175E 43N 180E 54N 180E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 25N 123E 19N 123E 18N 116E 23N 115E 27N 120E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 141E 42N 143E
46N 151E 40N 170E 34N 170E 34N 150E 39N 142E 42N 141E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 03N 172E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 33N 119E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1042 HPA AT 54N 164E SE 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

WOW!

[euro6208]

It's organizing pretty quickly...Looks like NWS might issue some warnings for the Marshall Islands...

SST's in this area is 1-2 degrees above normal...

This will be a great relieve from the horrible sun that's been scorching us...

[wxman57]

It doesn't appear to have a well-defined LLC just yet. ASCAT caught the disturbance fairly well yesterday afternoon (below). It still looks rather poorly-defined on this morning's imagery. Both the EC and GFS move it WNW and into southern Luzon in 9 days (Thursday, 19th). Something to watch...

[euro6208]

18Z BT...

97W INVEST 150310 1800 6.3N 172.8E WPAC 20 1002

[euro6208]

12Z GFS even more bullish...946 mb in the Rota Channel...

[cycloneye]

euro,you have to watch closely this.

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
AGAIN THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. THIS CIRCULATION REMAINS CLOSE TO WHERE
IT HAS BEEN THAT LAST FEW DAYS AND THAT IS SOUTH OF MAJURO.

GFS...ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS FEATURE INTO
AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND POSSIBLY A TROPICAL STORM. ON
SUNDAY THE MODELS HINTED THAT THE CIRCULATION WOULD PASS EITHER
CLOSE TO OR SOUTH OF GUAM. ON MONDAY THEY AGREED ON THE SYSTEM
PASSING NORTH OF SAIPAN. TODAY'S MODEL ITERATIONS ARE BACK TO THE
SOUTHERN ROUTE. GFS SHOW THE CIRCULATION PASSING OVER THE ROTA
CHANNEL SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS IT PASSING JUST SOUTH OF GUAM SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE NAVGEM 06Z RUN HAD IT PASSING OVER GUAM THEN THE 12Z
RUN HAD IT PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM MONDAY. AS CAN BE SEEN BY THESE
EXAMPLES THE FORECAST IS IN FLUX. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A RUN
OF THE MILL CIRCULATION EXPECT SOME RAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EVEN A WEAK CIRCULATION WOULD PUMP UP THE WINDS VIA AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AT THE VERY LEAST. BECAUSE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST...RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD KEEP UP ON
THE LATEST FORECAST AS PROJECTIONS MAY CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
INVEST AREA 97W IS STILL SPINNING IN PLACE SOUTH OF MAJURO NEAR
5N172E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SPREAD
ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH HEAVIEST WEATHER
SEEN IN IR SATELLITE OVER BUTARITARI AND TARAWA AND NORTH OF
MAJURO. MODELS STILL SHOW 97W EVENTUALLY WILL BEGIN HEADING OUT OF
THE MARSHALLS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST- NORTHWEST...PASSING
JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK AS IT APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS LATE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED UP JUST A
LITTLE FOR EACH OF THESE ISLANDS FOR THE PASSAGE OF 97W. FOR
NOW...HEAVIEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TO THE NORTH OF
KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT AS IS THE
CASE...WE ARE STILL EARLY IN THE GAME AND 97W HAS YET TO MAKE ITS
MOVE...THEREFORE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MID-RANGE
FORECAST FOR EACH OF THESE LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON 97W AND ITS EFFECTS ACROSS MICRONESIA.

A HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST-FACING REEFS AT
MAJURO. SURF WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 FEET OR GREATER
TODAY ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES. SOME INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING
AREAS IS POSSIBLE AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ALSO AT MAJURO...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTH FACING
REEFS. AT KOSRAE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH
AND EAST- FACING REEFS. A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
NEAR MAJURO NORTHWARD TO WAKE ISLAND AND EASTWARD WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER SEAS AND SURF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT MAJURO WITH COMBINED
SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
TO BETWEEN 9 AND 11 FEET BY SATURDAY. ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS OF AT
LEAST 10 TO 14 FEET HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITH
HIGHER SEAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN ATOLLS. DEPENDING ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 979W...SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK.

[1900hurricane]

JMA has 97W as a depression now and expecting to name it in 24 hours or so per their latest forecast.

[euro6208]

Here we go!

WTPN21 PGTW 110500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.0N 172.1E TO 7.8N 163.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 171.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N
168.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 171.4E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH
OF MAJURO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 110210Z N-19 AMSU-
B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM MAJURO SHOW A CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL AS OVERALL
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 110320
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 11/0232Z

C. 7.0N

D. 170.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS
CONSOLIDATED AROUND A DISTINCT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. OVERALL
CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FURTHER REMOVED FROM
CENTER. 2 TENTHS BANDING GIVES DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 110210
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 PM CHST WED MAR 11 2015

PMZ172-173-174-181-120200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
1200 PM CHST WED MAR 11 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS DEVELOPING IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF MAJURO
NEAR 6N172E. AS THIS DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT MAJURO AND AILINGLAPLAP...EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

AT WOTJE AND KWAJALEIN...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY TURN EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH UP TO 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT KOSRAE...PINGELAP...MOKIL AND POHNPEI...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THIS WILL HAPPEN ON
THURSDAY AT KOSRAE...THURSDAY NIGHT AT MOKIL AND PINGELAP...AND ON
FRIDAY AT POHNPEI...PAKIN AND OROLUK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TODAY AT THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY.

AT CHUUK...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTH OF CHUUK LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BUT ANY SMALL CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
CHUUK LATE THIS WEEK.

SEAS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS CONTINUE TO BUILD. SEAS OF 12 TO 14
FEET WILL RISE HIGHER AND PEAK AROUND 17 FEET EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN NEAR THIS LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
COMBINED SEAS COULD PEAK AT 20 FEET AT KWAJALEIN. SEAS THIS HIGH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COASTAL INUNDATION. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT 7 TO 9 FEET NEAR KOSRAE. AT POHNPEI...SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BUILD TO OVER 10 FEET
FRIDAY...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 15 FEET. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET AT
CHUUK WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY
SATURDAY AT 12 TO 14 FEET. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION...AND IF POSSIBLE POSTPONE MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 110647

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 11/0532Z

C. 7.00N

D. 170.22E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE
MET IS UNAVAILABLE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Majuro had a 24 hour pressure fall of 4.3 mb and winds gusted to 30 knots...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Starting to look promising

[euro6208]

Lengthy discussion on the impacts to Micronesia...

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 110804
AFDPQ

AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
603 PM CHST WED MAR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 18
KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY SEASON WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO REACH 700 ON
FRIDAY...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. EXACTLY HOW CLOSE IT COMES AND
HOW MUCH IT INTENSIFIES WILL BE THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS...OR MORE.

&&

.MARINE...
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL SHORTLY BE ON THE RISE AS
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM BEHIND A JAPANESE WINTER STORM BEGIN TO
ARRIVE. NEVERTHELESS...WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED NOT TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT OR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR AFFECTING WINDS AND WAVES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS...NEAR AILINGLAPLAP...IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER. GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES BOTH TRACK THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE MARIANAS. EARLIER TODAY...MAJURO HAD A 24
HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 4.3 MB AND RECENTLY GUSTED TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WIDE EXPANSE OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT MAJURO BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVE INTO
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON
THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON KOSRAE THURSDAY. SIMILARLY...THE WORST
OF THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PASS NORTH OF
POHNPEI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS BUT A SLIGHT DEVIATION
COULD STILL BRING INCLEMENT WEATHER TO BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI IF
THE SHORT TERM TRACK IS BIASED TO THE SOUTH.

LARGE SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS ON
EAST FACING REEFS AND HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS ON NORTH FACING REEFS
OF MAJURO THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH SURF EVENT WILL PEAK TONIGHT BEFORE
SURF BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. SURF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS ALONG THE EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF EVENT WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATE. HAZARDOUS
SURF IS ALREADY PRESENT ON NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF IS EXPECTED
TO RISE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON POHNPEI BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEARS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT CHUUK THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE LIKELY TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES 160E. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF CHUUK AS IT
PASSES 150E LATE SATURDAY. A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT YAP AND KOROR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
THAT IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN BUILDING SEAS.

SEAS WILL RISE TO NEAR HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS YAP AND KOROR COASTAL WATERS. THE EXACT TIMING
AND THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND EVOLVES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS/MCELROY

[euro6208]

Upgrade looking very imminent now...Dvorak numbers is now 1.5...

TXPQ25 KNES 110956
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 11/0832Z

C. 7.3N

D. 169.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AND FLARED
AROUND LOW LEVEL CENTER PAST 6-12 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS
AS COLD AS -95C. CONVECTION WRAPS 3 TENTHS ON LOG SPIRAL FOR
DT=2.0. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0700Z 7.2N 169.4E WINDSAT


...RUMINSKI

TPPN10 PGTW 110951

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 11/0832Z

C. 7.11N

D. 169.20E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Looking much better...Outflow increasing in all quadrants and LLC becoming more defined and aligned underneath that developing CDO...

[euro6208]

High potential...