ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

once again this thing is projected to crawl up the east coast at an excruciatingly slow pace...basically taking 24 hours to climb the MLB CWA coastline.. That would be a real mess should it happen.

[Hammy]

Forecast track has it going almost straight northwest from where it is, but it's moving west, if not WSW.

[Nederlander]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 280304
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.
These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[AdamFirst]

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

['CaneFreak]

Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner.

NHC Discussion Quote:

"The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger gyre."

Seems like there is no "center" but rather multiple vortices rotating around a common point. It would explain the odd wind shifts and is part of the reason why I don't think it will organize in time to turn and miss DR. It's just too much of a mess right now.

[terstorm1012]

It will be very interesting to see if this survives tomorrow's passage over the Dominican Republic.

[Hurricaneman]

The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor
organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able
to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast
of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the
surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central
pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is
not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be
moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel
the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level
flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it
has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika
should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next
several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36
and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the
northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track
guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a
tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and
moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the
latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high
uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that
the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of
land for this to occur.

Based on this they really don't know where the center is with its multple vortices

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Steve H.]

Sorry, I know a lot of people have suffered already from this storm. Didn't mean to compare a fence to a life. I have to think about things beyond my own backyard!

[blp]

Very difficult forecast tonight. I don't remember seeing the word uncertain used so much in a forecast. They don't know exactly where it is or how strong it might get or where it will end up. Wow, they are really earning their money tonight. I wish them luck.

[BobHarlem]

New track has it taking its sweet time climbing up the coast of east central Florida.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman on ch4 in miami say nhc going with low south of Puerto Rico move fast west going hit Dominican Republic head on

[rolltide]

As I said this morning. I'll believe a wnw or nw motion when Erika actually starts moving in that direction. It's been moving almost due west all day.





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nederlander]

It will be very interesting to see if this survives tomorrow's passage over the Dominican Republic.

Given the overall poor structure and multiple vorts, the interaction (or lack there of) with Hisp. may not be as big of a deal as previously thought unless it cut straight across the island and I don't see that happening.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Feeling bad for the folks in Dominica

[txwatcher91]

One danger many are overlooking is the immediate threat to the DR. Whether or not Erica survives it is quite possible that there could be major flooding issues in the DR if she dumps a lot of rain like she did in the islands. Whether Erica survives or not the danger to the DR certainly needs to be monitored.

[JPmia]

One factor that is not being discussed much is the abnormally high tides that will occur this weekend. If she comes this way at that trajectory it will just add more coastal flooding.

http://www.local10.com/news/fort-lauder ... d/34935400

[ozonepete]

One danger many are overlooking is the immediate threat to the DR. Whether or not Erica survives it is quite possible that there could be major flooding issues in the DR if she dumps a lot of rain like she did in the islands. Whether Erica survives or not the danger to the DR certainly needs to be monitored.

And Puerto Rico of course. Their turn is coming very shortly. Let's hope that they, as well as DR, get only beneficial rains.

[northjaxpro]

One factor that is not being discussed much is the abnormally high tides that will occur this weekend. If she comes this way at that trajectory it will just add more coastal flooding.

http://www.local10.com/news/fort-lauder ... d/34935400

Good observation. I am worried about that potential up here early next week.

[Hammy]

One danger many are overlooking is the immediate threat to the DR. Whether or not Erica survives it is quite possible that there could be major flooding issues in the DR if she dumps a lot of rain like she did in the islands. Whether Erica survives or not the danger to the DR certainly needs to be monitored.

Don't forget the possible effects on Haiti, as far as I know there is very little vegetation on the island to slow down mudslides, so hopefully they can get whatever warning and preparations done should this go in their direction.

[SouthFLTropics]

One danger many are overlooking is the immediate threat to the DR. Whether or not Erica survives it is quite possible that there could be major flooding issues in the DR if she dumps a lot of rain like she did in the islands. Whether Erica survives or not the danger to the DR certainly needs to be monitored.

Don't forget the possible effects on Haiti, as far as I know there is very little vegetation on the island to slow down mudslides, so hopefully they can get whatever warning and preparations done should this go in their direction.

Mudslides are a very serious concern in Haiti. As you stated there is a lot of deforestation in Haiti and there has been many problems and deaths in the past with minimal tropical systems hitting the island.