ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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windnrain
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#1941 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:37 pm

http://wnct.com/2015/10/01/mandatory-ev ... um=twitter

Ocracoke island, North Carolina mandatory evacuation
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#1942 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:39 pm

Eye looking tighter in the last frame http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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#1943 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:39 pm

its still chugging along.. wsw ish..
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#1944 Postby NDG » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:39 pm

It is starting to slow down now, but I may be wrong, hopefully not because of the poor residents at Crooked Island.
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Re: Re:

#1945 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:39 pm

GoneBabyGone wrote:
NDG wrote:If Joaquin this afternoon passes 75W by much then you can start questioning the GFS and Euro solutions. IMO.


Steven DiMartino is beating this drum on his Twitter feed.

Re the OTS solutions:

I am saying trends right now, would argue against that forecast. If this crosses 75 W tonight, these models crashed and burned.


I'm as amateur as they get, and hey, Steven himself may post here and I just don't know, but just relaying what various mets are saying.

It's very close to getting to that and still heading WSW.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1946 Postby tatertawt24 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:40 pm

Image

Convection breaking up on SW quadrant, yet the eye is tighter and more defined.
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#1947 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:40 pm

When is the next recon flyby?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1948 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:41 pm

A historic fact for the Bahamas.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 7m7 minutes ago
#Joaquin is the first Cat 4 hurricane to track through the Bahamas in October in 149 years (1866).

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1949 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:42 pm

Obviously Dvorak estimates mean nothing with recon telling us the real strength, but just out of curiosity does anyone know what they are? Certainly doesn't look like any cat 4 I've ever seen.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1950 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:43 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Obviously Dvorak estimates mean nothing with recon telling us the real strength, but just out of curiosity does anyone know what they are? Certainly doesn't look like any cat 4 I've ever seen.


SAB is a T6.0 or 115 knots.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1951 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:43 pm

Joaquin appears to have taken another SW dip/wobble in the last frame..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: Re:

#1952 Postby nativefloridian » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:44 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
GoneBabyGone wrote:
NDG wrote:If Joaquin this afternoon passes 75W by much then you can start questioning the GFS and Euro solutions. IMO.


Steven DiMartino is beating this drum on his Twitter feed.

Re the OTS solutions:

I am saying trends right now, would argue against that forecast. If this crosses 75 W tonight, these models crashed and burned.


I'm as amateur as they get, and hey, Steven himself may post here and I just don't know, but just relaying what various mets are saying.

It's very close to getting to that and still heading WSW.




If I were placing a bet, I would put money on Joaquin getting west of 75W. The way things have been going, it seems like a sure bet. IMO

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#1953 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:44 pm

Still wobbling SW...
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#1954 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:44 pm

Looks like it's weakening a bit, convection looks rather ragged. Is it weakening?
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Re: Re:

#1955 Postby summersquall » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:45 pm

Jevo wrote:
summersquall wrote:Nice 24 frame loop showing the overall westward motion particularly in the last 10 frames. Really symmetrical too. Looking at the size of the storm and its seeming westward momentum, would it turn poleward more like a hummer than a porsche? (ie would it take a more westerly/wide turn to the north before hopefully missing additional populations?)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html


Yeah, these things don't turn on a dime they curve around. Which is where my concern for Nassau came into play as a directly landfall possibility


Pretty quick hop from Nasssua to West Palm, as well. Curve baby curve.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1956 Postby Jevo » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:45 pm

tatertawt24 wrote:Image

Convection breaking up on SW quadrant, yet the eye is tighter and more defined.


Yaah they are dragging over the mountains of Cuba, should see that cease once he gains a little latitude.
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#1957 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:47 pm

New recon on the way.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1958 Postby sicktght311 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:48 pm

Blown Away wrote:Joaquin appears to have taken another SW dip/wobble in the last frame..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Check the Water Vapor loop, its just the eye closing off and cycling around. Motion still looks due west
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#1959 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:48 pm

Euro doesn't seem to be verifying right now, nor GFS. Wobbling away west.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#1960 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 2:48 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Obviously Dvorak estimates mean nothing with recon telling us the real strength, but just out of curiosity does anyone know what they are? Certainly doesn't look like any cat 4 I've ever seen.


How is the weather there currently? I would think the conditions should be going down hill.
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