ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Cat Island and Long Island look to be experiencing the eye wall right now. Gonna be a long day and night there......MGC

[ninel conde]

Now the gov of NJ issued an SOE for a cane that at best will be 800 miles away. Getting ridiculous and will get people killed when they ignore a real emergency.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Crooked Island video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cak3aSSLY4w

Wow, poor people, may God keep them safe. Unbelievable how Paradise can go into a living hell with a Major Hurricane.

I know it's almost Surreal

[Nimbus]

On the water vapor loop the trough is retrograding if you look around coastal Georgia. (bending back to the west).
Does anyone know how far south the trouph axis was supposed to get over the SE US? Its awfully far south for what I was expecting.

Joaquin is a cat 4 now so a tremendous volume of outflow is pumping up the area of high pressure in which the storm is embedded.

That can change the upper air pattern rather quickly. There is a spear head of convection just off Cape Canaveral that is starting to retreat north, probably the southern terminus of the frontal boundary.

The cut off low that has been in the forecasts for a while now is dropping south rather quickly. That low should be a major steering element. The central axis of the low is still up in TN but should drop south through Mississippi over night.

Still looks like there is potential for a negative tilt steering scenario with ridging to the north of the strom if the trend continues. The models should have a better handle on the actual upper air pattern than us amateur watchers.

Even the models have difficulty with rapidly developing storms and troughs cutting off into new upper level steering elements. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC waits a while before swinging the track away from the US coast.

Forecast accuracy improves with every model run, and now they will be initializing the models with the correct intensity. The forecast accuracy will improve again once they initialize after the storm starts to gain latitude and forward speed and the upper air environment from the cut off low is better known.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drewschmaltz]

It does appear the eastward movement is diminishing, primarily towards northwest Florida

.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

If you cross your eyes just a little bit, doesn't it appear J bounces in this loop?

[Sanibel]

The eyewall of an intensifying category 4 hurricane wobbled right down on Crooked Island Lodge on the north tip of the island.

[LarryWx]

Here's a change of pace. The 11 AM NHC advisory had it at 22.9N, 74.2W as of 8 PM EDT from the 11 AM starting point of 23.0 N, 73.9 W. As of 2 PM EDT, it is already at 23.0N, 74.2W. So, it moved 0.3 W and 0.0 S...~due west (though these coordinates are rounded). So, it maybe moving a little faster. But, more importantly, it finally may be moving more westerly than the NHC advisory and more westerly than it has done in several days.

If so, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the models' projections for later today and tonight since that possibly could have significant implications on the future track if it veers too far off of the consensus.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Now the gov of NJ issued an SOE for a cane that at best will be 800 miles away. Getting ridiculous and will get people killed when they ignore a real emergency.

No It is justified with all the rain they have received and possible Flooding from the storm even if it is offshore. Conditions with the front and tides...etc.. Not sure why people don't respect officials when they air on the side of caution. I would rather be scared and warned needlessly 10 times than not warned once when needed!!!

[Weatherwatcher98]

Now the gov of NJ issued an SOE for a cane that at best will be 800 miles away. Getting ridiculous and will get people killed when they ignore a real emergency.

Sounds more like a political opportunity for him, little does he knows that the NHC will keep placing the track of Joaquin further east away from that State as time goes by.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Pretty sure he is abreast of the situation and knows ALOT more than YOU or I do about the Track. pretty sure it's not political......

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For the Atlantic side south Florida posters on here, how are the waves down there? Imagine there has to be some huge surf coming in and lasting for quite a while. Anybody have any videos or links to share?

[T'Bonz]

Sorry to tell you this, but the Carolina's are gonna get dumped on no matter what happens with Joaquin.

You're quite right. We've already had almost a week of rain, with more to come and that's not even counting Joaquin!

The state went under a state of emergency around lunchtime, which kind of surprised me, but I have to assume that is more due to the eastern part of the state which will feel more of an effect from the storm, even if not hit directly.

We've a lot of big trees here in the Piedmont and a little bit of wind would not be good. We're going to get *some* wind anyhow, before Joaquin even gets up this way (if it does).

[Ivanhater]

This is not a thread for politics about the state of emergency issued....get back on topic

[Weatherwatcher98]

This is not a thread for politics about the state of emergency issued....get back on topic

I was just stating it was not political.

[windnrain]

When is thus supposed to stop moving west?

[drewschmaltz]

Why are a lot of you talking like what remains to be seen has been seen? You don't know what model did best, you don't know which government issued the right warnings. All you know is a giant freaking hurricane is blasting some people - and has been blasting those people - and will continue blasting those people for several hours as it reveals to us what we do not yet know. Can you guys imagine a day when we have models that process fast enough that you could drag the COC to a new spot and have it spit out a new track? What about hypothetically, if this hurricane misses the western most point of the turn by .01 - what happens then? A model that answers that would be incredibly powerful. That's to say, what I'm interested in right now is what the margin of error is. The Euro will verify given the following constraints. What are those constraints exactly?

[wxman57]

Haven't read any of this thread all day, been busy putting out Joaquin tracks. Deterministic & ensembles all shifted away from East US Coast hit. I think TS winds may only graze the East Coast on Sunday/Monday (at most). East Coast may not get much significant weather from Joaquin at all. Back to my track update...

[Bocadude85]

Joaquin looks to have sped up a tad. Long Island and Great Exuma look to take a direct hit if the current motion continues.


_________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

I am very surprised at so many righting this thing off based on current model trends. We know that the models swing back and forth and I don't see why that wont continue until Joaquin decides it is time to change direction.

Just my opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

in the next 2 hours it will be passing west of the forecast point of the turn. putting exuma on the west side and possibly eleuthera on the right side.. both are much more populated.

then of course new providence on the west side ..

[Aric Dunn]

definitely still has a slight south component and has not slowed very much. that sharp turn should coincide with a slow down or brief stall.