EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Only a handful of EPAC storms had peak intensity Recon: Jimena 2009 (although I think it peaked just after Recon left at 140 kt), Kenna 2002, Lane 2006 are three that I know of.

Kenna peaked between flights. Ignacio this year had Recon at peak. Pretty sure Guillermo 97 had Recon at peak as well. Point being it's a rare sight indeed.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting that it seems the wind reduction from flight level to surface is pretty much 100%...impressive, how often does it occur in hurricanes that flight level winds would equal the surface winds?

It is most common in storms that are rapidly deepening, such as Patricia is now.

[CrazyC83]

As for the advisory, I would go with an intensity of 125 kt personally, based on extrapolation of deepening rate and pressure change, with a pressure of 947mb (958 to 953 in 75 minutes and then another 90 minutes having passed).

[cycloneye]

Plane acending so we wont know more for a few hours as another plane (AF) goes in the overnight hours.

[Kingarabian]

Only a handful of EPAC storms had peak intensity Recon: Jimena 2009 (although I think it peaked just after Recon left at 140 kt), Kenna 2002, Lane 2006 are three that I know of.

Kenna peaked between flights. Ignacio this year had Recon at peak. Pretty sure Guillermo 97 had Recon at peak as well. Point being it's a rare sight indeed.

Fortunately, the NHC is finally going away from their conservative ways in regards to intensity when it comes to EPAC storms. I feel more confident that the NHC will assign the accurate intensity based on trends and not simply rely on recon and Dvorak.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE PATRICIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN MEXICO TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES



HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia has an impressive satellite presentation, with a small
10 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective cloud tops of -80C to
-90C. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that the pressure had
fallen to about 953 mb on their final pass through the center, after
indicating earlier that the intensity had increased to 115 kt, which
remains the intensity for this advisory. Further strengthening is
indicated by much of the intensity guidance given that the shear
remains low and the hurricane is over SSTs of 30-31C. The official
forecast shows the cyclone peaking at 135 kt in 12 hours, followed
by a little weakening prior to landfall as the shear increases, and
this is close to the latest intensity consensus aids. Patricia could
also undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall that
could result in fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After
landfall, the hurricane should quickly weaken over the high terrain
and dissipate by 72 hours.

The hurricane has begun turning a bit more poleward and slowed down
during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of
300/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with
Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during
the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level
high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then
forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an
amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track is
again a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the new
GFS/ECMWF consensus along on the western side of the guidance
envelope.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended
the hurricane warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which
includes the Puerto Vallarta area.

Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and
moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of
low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major
rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more
information, please refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect
the warning area tonight or early Friday.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning
late tonight and continuing into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing Category 5 status.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:10 N Lon : 104:25:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.4

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[northjaxpro]

Nearing Category 5 status.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:10 N Lon : 104:25:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.4

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Patricia will become a Category 5 tropical cyclone tonight. Definitely by the time the next Recon arrives later tonight.

[CrazyC83]

Nearing Category 5 status.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 15:22:10 N Lon : 104:25:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.7mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.4

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Given that it is deepening faster than Dvorak constraints allow, the CI# is likely a low estimate. I would have gone with 125 kt at the advisory, and even higher soon at this rate. As for peak intensity, I'd have gone with 150 kt by 24 hours followed by some weakening before landfall.

[supercane4867]

Going nuts...

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing 140 knots.

[northjaxpro]

Impressive!!! The eye I think will shrink a bit more to about 5-6 miles in diameter at her peak within the next 12 hours or so.

[TheStormExpert]

Yellow Evan was onto something when he said he was getting Kenna vibes from this earlier.


I mean wow! Praying and hoping that this weakens a bit before hitting Mexico, but if I were them I'd be finishing prepping for a upper end Cat.4/borderline Cat.5 about now.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm not finding a Cat 5 EPAC that made landfall any stronger than maybe a 2.

At least as far back as Ava '73.

I found two that came in to western MX, but as either a 1 or 2.

-----------------

Rick as a TS

Kenna at 140 it looks like, so a 4.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not finding a Cat 5 EPAC that made landfall any stronger than maybe a 2.

At least as far back as Ava '73.

I found two that came in to western MX, but as either a 1 or 2.

Kenna 02 hit with 120 knots.

Last Cat 5 landfall technically was in 1959, but that'll likely be downgraded in ayear or two.

[zeehag]

making hotel reservations. will leave my boat to itself which scares me more than dying in a cane.
i am not happy.
when this is done with us i will own nothing and have no home. that scares me more than anything.
and i will have a heavy hotel bill i wont be able to pay. is that living? or is protecting my home from death by hurricane, which seems a sure thing at present.
yes i am going into a room. or taking over the hotel lobby.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2015 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 15:25:22 N Lon : 104:30:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

making hotel reservations. will leave my boat to itself which scares me more than dying in a cane.
i am not happy.
when this is done with us i will own nothing and have no home. that scares me more than anything.
and i will have a heavy hotel bill i wont be able to pay. is that living? or is protecting my home from death by hurricane, which seems a sure thing at present.
yes i am going into a room. or taking over the hotel lobby.

How far inland is the room?

Also, how well-built is your home? If trends continue, the strongest winds may miss you.

[Hammy]

I didn't bother even checking this since yesterday since nothing is going on in the Atlantic and it didn't seem too interesting a storm anyway, and then find out it's strengthened to a Cat 4 in a day

[supercane4867]

Raw T# up to 7.6！