EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

I don't know about you but I think this is possibly a category 4 already. Too bad there won't be recon today.

[Yellow Evan]

First VIS. Wow.

[Yellow Evan]

ADT still catching up:


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 13:34:27 N Lon : 142:20:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 961.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 7 km

Center Temp : -26.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Likely 115 knts now.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 959.2mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -10.7C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

Based on all that data, depending on what the next subjective Dvorak estimate is, I would probably go with 110 kt.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on all that data, depending on what the next subjective Dvorak estimate is, I would probably go with 110 kt.

I'm expecting this. CPHC- 6.0. JTWC- 6.0. SAB- 6.5.

ADT MW scene has been causing it to lack behind.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 13:33:27 N Lon : 142:37:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -5.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

Based on all that data, depending on what the next subjective Dvorak estimate is, I would probably go with 110 kt.

I'm expecting this. CPHC- 6.0. JTWC- 6.0. SAB- 6.5.

ADT MW scene has been causing it to lack behind.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 13:33:27 N Lon : 142:37:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -5.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.1C

Scene Type : EYE

If you are accurate, 120 kt would probably be the best estimate.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 201508081730, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1360N, 14270W, , 1, 127, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , C, SAB, JV, IM, 1, 6565 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO DT

SAB is 6.5

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ02 PGTW 081828

A. HURRICANE 10E (HILDA)

B. 08/1730Z

C. 13.57N

D. 142.73W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T6.5/6.5 STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO SYSTEM BEING EAST OF
140W AND NO FIXES PERFORMED BY JTWC ON THE AREA. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

A. Hurricane Hilda.

B. 08/1730Z.

C. 13.6°N.

D. 142.7°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T6.0/6.0/d1.5/24 hours.

G. Eir/ir/vis.

H. Remarks: Eye pattern with EIR bd white shade eye > 30 nm yields an E number of 6.0 with an eye adj of 0.5 resulting in a cf/dt of 6.5. PT is 6.0. MET is 5.0. FT based on MET +1 and constraints.

I. Addl positions none.

CPHC likes to go with the consensus. Maybe 125?

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 13:37:11 N Lon : 142:48:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

ADT still climbing...

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2015080818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1428W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

Great call. Credit CPHC.

[Kingarabian]

EP, 10, 2015080818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1428W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

Great call. Credit CPHC.

Still a chance for them to go with 125kts as long as ADT continues to climb.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2015080818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1428W, 120, 946, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

Great call. Credit CPHC.

Still a chance for them to go with 125kts as long as ADT continues to climb.

Knwoing them, they won't, but we'll see. Eye isn't warm enough IMO (getting there though).

[Yellow Evan]

Shear should be at almost zero knots tonight.

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILDA       EP102015  08/08/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   120   125   126   124   117   101    82    65    49    40    30    19   DIS
V (KT) LAND      120   125   126   124   117   101    82    65    49    40    30    19   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod   120   124   122   116   110    95    80    65    52    42    34    28    22
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     4     2     1     5    13    22    29    39    43    51    53    56
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     4     0    -2    -3     3     3     7     1     0    -5    -2    -5
SHEAR DIR         51    70   114   343   294   251   259   252   254   259   263   264   273
SST (C)         28.3  28.1  27.9  27.7  27.6  27.3  27.2  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.2  27.2  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   148   146   143   141   140   136   134   133   133   133   133   133   132
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     58    60    59    57    57    59    61    61    58    54    52    51    50
MODEL VTX (KT)    18    18    20    19    18    18    16    15    13    13    12    10     7
850 MB ENV VOR    28    32    40    36    37    28    26    18    19    24    22    13     5
200 MB DIV        31    46    40    24    24    52    65    51    37    18     1   -23   -23
700-850 TADV      -4    -1     0     0     3     5     9    11     8     2     4     0     1
LAND (KM)       1436  1313  1191  1087   983   797   643   521   435   335   224   177   174
LAT (DEG N)     13.6  14.0  14.3  14.8  15.2  16.2  17.0  18.0  18.9  19.5  19.9  20.4  21.0
LONG(DEG W)    142.8 143.9 145.0 145.9 146.7 148.1 149.3 150.1 150.7 151.6 152.7 153.4 153.9
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    10     9     9     8     7     6     5     5     5     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      26    30    21    19    19    34    27    23    21    22    21    22    16

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

No G-IV missions planned?

[Yellow Evan]

No G-IV missions planned?

Apparently not.