ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I asked this earlier but it may have gotten lost. Is it possible for a very large, deep hurricane to more or less 'make its own rules' with regard to local steering mechanisms? I thought I remembered Dr. Neil Frank (former NHC director who worked for the CBS affiliate in Houston for many years after) talking about this phenomenon during Ike, and I think Gilbert as well back in the day.

-Steve

It is not the likely scenario to play out, but it is a plausible one that is on the table. The pumping the ridge scenario has occured in the past with intense tropical cyclones. Go to page 51 in the Models thread where a few of us have been discussing that angle to read more about it there.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011532
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 45 20151001
152300 2256N 07404W 6963 02665 9445 +148 +145 303068 074 092 012 00
152330 2255N 07405W 6954 02695 9488 +147 +147 305087 096 097 019 00
152400 2254N 07407W 6948 02736 9546 +135 +135 304108 116 089 048 00
152430 2253N 07408W 6975 02728 9591 +126 +126 301118 120 088 059 03
152500 2252N 07409W 6970 02756 9632 +107 //// 303117 119 076 073 05
152530 2251N 07410W 6935 02822 9665 +099 //// 307112 114 084 053 01
152600 2250N 07411W 6971 02806 9684 +109 +109 307107 111 090 035 00
152630 2249N 07412W 6962 02839 9700 +116 +116 307103 105 090 022 00
152700 2248N 07413W 6976 02837 9721 +107 //// 307104 108 139 018 05
152730 2247N 07414W 6963 02870 //// +087 //// 307095 099 /// /// 05
152800 2246N 07415W 6970 02876 //// +089 //// 307100 101 102 016 05
152830 2245N 07416W 6963 02901 //// +086 //// 311099 102 /// /// 05
152900 2244N 07418W 6965 02913 9789 +106 //// 312097 098 095 005 01
152930 2243N 07419W 6951 02941 9797 +119 +119 314093 096 081 021 00
153000 2242N 07420W 6977 02920 9814 +117 +117 314092 097 074 014 00
153030 2241N 07421W 6962 02949 9813 +114 +114 315091 093 070 009 00
153100 2240N 07423W 6958 02962 9817 +111 +111 316085 088 068 008 00
153130 2238N 07424W 6965 02964 9823 +110 +110 315086 087 065 013 00
153200 2237N 07425W 6962 02975 9846 +103 +103 318085 089 063 013 03
153230 2236N 07426W 6959 02987 9884 +095 +095 315083 084 060 013 00
$$
;

120 kt FL (SFMR likely unreliable, certainly the 139 kt is bogus).

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011542
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 46 20151001
153300 2235N 07428W 6961 02992 9878 +100 +100 314077 083 059 012 00
153330 2234N 07429W 6962 02996 9883 +103 +103 315074 078 056 010 00
153400 2233N 07430W 6965 03002 9900 +100 +100 312073 074 057 008 00
153430 2232N 07432W 6963 03009 9879 +104 +104 314072 074 057 008 00
153500 2231N 07433W 6967 03009 9888 +102 +102 311071 072 057 007 03
153530 2229N 07434W 6959 03025 9904 +101 +101 311071 072 055 007 00
153600 2228N 07436W 6961 03027 9908 +099 +099 312068 070 053 007 00
153630 2227N 07437W 6965 03026 9910 +098 +098 313066 068 051 007 00
153700 2226N 07438W 6963 03032 9915 +096 +096 315065 065 051 009 00
153730 2225N 07439W 6956 03044 9926 +099 +099 314066 068 049 010 00
153800 2224N 07441W 6965 03038 9914 +100 +100 314065 066 049 008 00
153830 2223N 07442W 6962 03044 9912 +100 +100 314064 064 048 007 00
153900 2221N 07443W 6966 03042 9912 +100 +100 315062 064 049 007 00
153930 2220N 07445W 6960 03053 9929 +101 +101 314063 065 052 007 00
154000 2219N 07446W 6969 03043 9928 +099 +099 317065 066 054 006 00
154030 2218N 07447W 6961 03056 9942 +096 //// 319065 068 052 006 01
154100 2217N 07449W 6966 03054 9939 +094 //// 318065 065 052 004 01
154130 2216N 07450W 6960 03062 9934 +095 +090 316061 063 050 006 00
154200 2214N 07451W 6964 03061 9932 +099 +083 317060 061 050 004 00
154230 2213N 07453W 6963 03065 9932 +104 +079 317059 060 051 003 00
$$
;

[NotoSans]

Pressure down to 938 mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 011545
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/15:20:00Z
B. 23 deg 04 min N
073 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. 89 kt
E. 343 deg 15 nm
F. 069 deg 114 kt
G. 343 deg 15 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 14 C / 3052 m
J. 21 C / 3049 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C32
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 120 KT 218 / 13 NM 15:24:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 12 KT
;

[AutoPenalti]

Marginal jog to the WNW.

[emeraldislenc]

Is it true the faster it leaves the Bahamas the more possible threat to the coast of NC? Any basis for that statement?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011552
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 47 20151001
154300 2212N 07454W 6962 03068 9929 +108 +073 317059 059 049 005 03
154330 2211N 07456W 6963 03067 9930 +110 +067 318058 059 049 003 00
154400 2210N 07457W 6965 03070 9934 +108 +071 319057 058 048 002 03
154430 2208N 07457W 6960 03076 9941 +103 +067 314057 058 /// /// 03
154500 2206N 07456W 6961 03073 9943 +102 +074 309056 057 046 004 03
154530 2205N 07454W 6969 03065 9941 +103 +065 307057 057 050 003 00
154600 2205N 07451W 6961 03072 9943 +100 +077 305057 058 053 004 00
154630 2205N 07449W 6963 03067 9954 +099 //// 304059 061 052 005 01
154700 2204N 07447W 6967 03064 9941 +097 +091 304057 060 054 004 00
154730 2204N 07444W 6963 03202 0049 +100 +090 305058 059 054 005 00
154800 2203N 07442W 6969 03212 0118 +096 +086 304059 061 051 005 03
154830 2203N 07440W 6968 03087 9999 +101 +086 301061 062 050 007 00
154900 2203N 07437W 6967 03066 9948 +096 +083 298060 061 049 006 00
154930 2202N 07435W 6969 03059 9947 +091 +087 296061 062 051 006 03
155000 2202N 07433W 6965 03061 9941 +095 +086 296061 062 061 003 03
155030 2201N 07430W 6969 03054 9941 +092 +089 293061 062 058 004 03
155100 2201N 07428W 6966 03057 9951 +089 //// 291063 064 057 005 01
155130 2200N 07425W 6969 03053 9953 +088 //// 288063 064 059 005 05
155200 2200N 07423W 6970 03051 9949 +090 //// 284062 063 059 005 01
155230 2200N 07420W 6967 03054 9951 +087 //// 283062 062 058 006 01
$$
;

[NotoSans]

Eyewall dropsonde reported 114 kt surface winds.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 011549
XXAA 51157 99229 70741 08024 99946 25401 25614 00/// ///// /////
92200 24402 26628 85943 21605 29115 70619 15601 30583 88999 77999
31313 09608 81523
61616 AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 21
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 2289N07401W 1525 AEV 07775 DLM WND 28603 94
5696 WL150 26119 085 REL 2291N07409W 152324 =
XXBB 51158 99229 70741 08024 00946 25401 11850 21605 22696 15200
21212 00946 25614 11944 25615 22943 25611 33916 26639 44909 27132
55898 27635 66879 28112 77870 28121 88860 29607 99850 29115 11696
30583
31313 09608 81523
61616 AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 21
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 2289N07401W 1525 AEV 07775 DLM WND 28603 94
5696 WL150 26119 085 REL 2291N07409W 152324 =
;

[drezee]

Unless it is a wobble, the West turn has begun...if so it will not go as far south as the Euro said last night...Euro had it near 22.5 by 0z tonight just S of the southern tip of Long island...

[tropicwatch]

Last three center fixes. Last one at 15:45z

[AutoPenalti]

Still going WSW ?

[T'Bonz]

Thanks. I sure hope the Euro model proves to be correct in the end.

The bad thing about it being right are the Euro-worshippers that will be going "Ooh! Ooh! King Euro rulz!"

Over the past few years, that has grown super tiresome.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011602
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 48 20151001
155300 2159N 07418W 6966 03055 9940 +090 +086 281061 062 057 007 03
155330 2159N 07416W 6966 03053 9939 +090 +090 280063 064 055 006 00
155400 2158N 07413W 6967 03050 9938 +090 +088 278065 066 054 008 03
155430 2158N 07411W 6975 03042 9946 +088 //// 273063 064 054 007 05
155500 2157N 07408W 6963 03053 9948 +088 +087 271064 064 054 006 03
155530 2157N 07406W 6967 03050 9943 +089 +087 271065 067 056 006 00
155600 2156N 07403W 6956 03062 9959 +087 +087 271066 069 055 012 03
155630 2156N 07401W 6966 03050 9961 +097 +097 267066 069 056 022 03
155700 2156N 07358W 6950 03067 9962 +106 +106 262065 068 058 021 03
155730 2155N 07356W 6974 03045 9960 +099 +099 263057 064 051 016 00
155800 2155N 07354W 6959 03067 9950 +094 +094 264057 059 048 009 00
155830 2154N 07351W 6968 03057 9948 +096 +096 262054 055 049 009 00
155900 2154N 07349W 6958 03070 9955 +098 +098 260059 062 048 008 00
155930 2153N 07347W 6970 03056 9964 +089 +089 260061 062 048 009 00
160000 2153N 07344W 6966 03065 9971 +089 +089 256065 067 048 011 00
160030 2153N 07342W 6956 03076 9995 +087 +087 255069 070 050 020 00
160100 2152N 07339W 6964 03070 9990 +093 +093 245060 068 052 021 00
160130 2152N 07337W 6969 03065 9987 +090 +090 242058 061 047 021 00
160200 2151N 07335W 6965 03070 9977 +092 +092 245056 057 046 013 00
160230 2151N 07333W 6971 03066 9971 +094 +094 244054 055 045 010 00
$$
;

[windnrain]

Is it true that the more west it goes, the higher liklihood of US impact?

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS punts this out to sea. Doesn't make it anywhere near the east coast of the US.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormlover2013]

GFS and euro are both really good models, both have flaws!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Amazing how lucky the US continues to be if trends remain the same.

[T'Bonz]

It'll be good if this verifies and misses us. The rain here has been non-stop and wind on top of it would be bad.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011612
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 49 20151001
160300 2151N 07331W 6966 03072 9968 +095 +095 246051 054 045 010 00
160330 2150N 07328W 6970 03066 9972 +092 +092 248052 053 049 017 00
160400 2150N 07326W 6945 03095 9987 +095 +095 244069 076 053 033 00
160430 2149N 07324W 6980 03045 9985 +098 +098 244071 078 057 042 00
160500 2149N 07321W 6966 03064 9985 +099 +099 233062 067 052 041 00
160530 2148N 07319W 6958 03070 9984 +098 +098 233071 075 050 039 00
160600 2148N 07317W 6964 03065 9988 +096 +096 233073 073 051 034 00
160630 2148N 07315W 6969 03067 9999 +094 +094 228069 078 052 034 00
160700 2147N 07313W 6970 03064 9993 +094 +094 224059 062 053 019 00
160730 2147N 07310W 6959 03082 0000 +093 +093 228059 060 053 018 00
160800 2146N 07308W 6968 03068 9998 +094 +094 229059 060 051 016 00
160830 2146N 07306W 6969 03067 9998 +089 +089 230059 060 050 011 00
160900 2146N 07304W 6966 03073 9997 +089 +089 226059 061 048 010 00
160930 2145N 07302W 6971 03070 0006 +083 +083 220060 061 047 011 00
161000 2145N 07300W 6963 03079 9988 +083 +083 216059 060 046 012 00
161030 2145N 07258W 6965 03076 9984 +081 +081 215056 059 045 013 00
161100 2144N 07256W 6970 03073 9988 +082 +082 215055 056 046 011 00
161130 2144N 07254W 6967 03083 9989 +084 +084 214055 056 046 012 00
161200 2143N 07252W 6963 03088 9997 +082 +082 215055 056 044 015 00
161230 2143N 07250W 6969 03084 9993 +083 +083 215053 055 044 015 00
$$
;

Starting an ERC? Outer maxima might be showing up.

[Raebie]

It'll be good if this verifies and misses us. The rain here has been non-stop and wind on top of it would be bad.

Sorry to tell you this, but the Carolina's are gonna get dumped on no matter what happens with Joaquin.