ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

ok news here saying people their interview say not worry in miami look waiting last day get ready

[jlauderdal]

ok news here saying people their interview say not worry in miami look waiting last day get ready

The only real talk is the kids gunning for a day off school but no power loss of course..that is threading the needle like a system threading the mona passage

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[ozonepete]

If that upper low over Cuba retrogrades and/or weakens more, Erika could start strengthening earlier than expected. Thats one of my major concerns, especially if she stays far enough away from Hispanola to avoid getting seriously disrupted. It already seems as if shear is weakening in her vicinity.

Just the opinion of a semieducated amateur; listen to the experts

there is shear up by PR and DR u can see it on visible.

By DR but not PR.

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

yeah the LLC tucked under and popped a tower which seems to be weaking now while below is intensifying. What a strange messy TC...hate these kinds...

[robbielyn]

If that upper low over Cuba retrogrades and/or weakens more, Erika could start strengthening earlier than expected. Thats one of my major concerns, especially if she stays far enough away from Hispanola to avoid getting seriously disrupted. It already seems as if shear is weakening in her vicinity.

Just the opinion of a semieducated amateur; listen to the experts

there is shear up by PR and DR u can see it on visible.

By DR but not PR.

ok thanks for the correction.

[tropicwatch]

HH passing over Puerto Rico.

[ConvergenceZone]

285 still will put it straight through Hispaniola's heart, going to have to gain more northerly motion if its going to avoid a dagger through itself.

Certainly an improving TC at the moment but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another burst of mid level shear smash into it over the next 24hrs or so.

KWT, welcome back! We thought you fell off the planet Enjoy your input as always...

just checked in briefly eating lunch... heading back to bed to deal with a horrible ear infection..

[emeraldislenc]

Dr. Jeff Masters as well as Brian Norcross about to be on "Weather Underground" show on The Weather Channel starting next.

Please report back if they have something new to add

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Just speaking about any land interaction, i.e. Puerto Rico, DR and how that could interrupt any low level circulation. Nothing new really, pretty much talking about everything that is being discussed here. If it stays off the mountains , could be stronger and possibly a little East of Fla. Weaker, more West.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection starting to wane again. Seems like a roller coaster ride from hell.

[Hammy]

Pressure doesn't seem that low so far in the flight, unless it's come up since earlier.

[Evenstar]

At the risk of sounding parochial and self-serving, I'm wondering what kind of impact Erika might have on the Virginia Beach/Tidewater area if she decides to go north east? I value the educated guesses of the amazing folks on Storm2k. Thanks!

[AdamFirst]

At the risk of sounding parochial and self-serving, I'm wondering what kind of impact Erika might have on the Virginia Beach/Tidewater area if she decides to go north east? I value the educated guesses of the amazing folks on Storm2k. Thanks!

Way, way, way too early to tell. It may not even make it that far north if those blocking highs verify.

[Evenstar]

Way, way, way too early to tell. It may not even make it that far north if those blocking highs verify.

I was afraid someone would say that. I guess I'm asking a hypothetical question about a hypothetical scenario. After reading the previous sentence, I'm embarrassed about being prematurely parochial and self-serving.

[NDG]

I think all the convection that formed to the south of the LLC disrupted the southerly inflow in the LLC thus why all the convection that was trying to wrap around it collapsed, definitely shear still affecting it.

[South Texas Storms]

Way, way, way too early to tell. It may not even make it that far north if those blocking highs verify.

I was afraid someone would say that. I guess I'm asking a hypothetical question about a hypothetical scenario. After reading the previous sentence, I'm embarrassed about being prematurely parochial and self-serving.

No need to feel embarrassed! Just keep checking into the forum and pay close attention to the forecasts from your local NWS office and the NHC. We should have a much better idea about any possible impacts from the storm across the Mid-Atlantic U.S. by late this weekend.

[Kingarabian]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rbtop-long.html

yeah the LLC tucked under and popped a tower which seems to be weaking now while below is intensifying. What a strange messy TC...hate these kinds...

Agreed.

When was the last time the Atlantic had a Cape Verde storm develop nicely?

[NDG]

So far recon is finding a very weak windfield directly on the NW quadrant of the LLC.

[wjs3]

Way, way, way too early to tell. It may not even make it that far north if those blocking highs verify.

I was afraid someone would say that. I guess I'm asking a hypothetical question about a hypothetical scenario. After reading the previous sentence, I'm embarrassed about being prematurely parochial and self-serving.

No judgment on this board for an honest question. It seems to me that it's natural to want to know what might happen to you/your interests. Stay vigilant and you'll be fine.

[Evenstar]

Thank you, South Texas. I will follow your advice, though you've now opened the door to me being parochial and self-serving again soon...

[NDG]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-rbtop-long.html

yeah the LLC tucked under and popped a tower which seems to be weaking now while below is intensifying. What a strange messy TC...hate these kinds...

Agreed.

When was the last time the Atlantic had a Cape Verde storm develop nicely?

Just last week for a few hours